Topic: Well the 2018 btc diff jumps are over so what will 2019 bring us? - page 14. (Read 9460 times)

Yeah if you live near it and are willing to check on dead gear you could do it.  But if it is hosting you provide you  have more work since you have to garranttee up time.

That is def doable as a 1 man show. Just set them up and you are done. When they start to shit the bed throw them out if you can troubleshoot it.

It is an interesting problem.
Whatsminer’s two three week gear delay is a factor.

I could see us getting to  diff of 16 and going flat for three months.

Coin price has been 9000 to 11000 for quite a while.

For now we are looking at next diff at 12.7 to 12.9t

I follow a couple of the larger re sellers on Telegram. It seems like every 15-30 minutes they list another 500-1000 S9's for sale. Lots of people bailing on the S9's. Or tying to. Problem is, they are not cheap enough yet. I can actually see a scenario fairly soon where enough S-9's come off the network to see a drop in Diff even with all the newer 7nm coming on. One decent, sustained BTC price drop to $7k-$8k may create this scenario.

I have a 3 s9  for 145 a month deal in washington state.  about 3000 kwatts a month at 4.833 cents = 145 a month  they earn

0.00002022 x 40 x 30 = 0.024264 btc in a month  or 247 usd a month  247-145 = 102    not bad for very little effort

but  that is with a diff of 11.9  when diff = 20.0t  lets see  11.9/20 = .626315 x 247 = 146.96 

so I am break  even at  a diff of 20t
with  a price of 4.8333 cent power + labor
and a price of 10,200

So I will mine on with those 3 s9's  for a while.

but a hoster   with 3 cent floor charging  a miner 6 cents  will lose  that miner  when diff is 14

a s9 at 1000 kwatts = 60 dollars

it earns  0.00002022 x 13.3 x 30 = 0.008088 a month or 82.49 - 60 = 22.49

with diff of   11.9
power of 6 cents
coin price of  10,200

with a diff of 16
power of 6 cents
coin price of 10,200

the s9  does  0.0002022 x 13.3 x 30 = 0.008088 x {11.9/16 } or  0.00601545 btc a month  that is 61.36 usd - 60 in power = 1.36 profit


So the diff of 16  with price of 10,200  is approaching   this is the tipping point for the s9.

If we speak only about s9.

The j series should consume around 32kwh a day so that, 960 a month, let's make it 1000 so things are easier.
Each cent in power saving per kWh means 10$ per unit a month.
So the difference between the home miner still making a profit at 6cent and the megafarm at 3 cents is 30$ that must be covering the costs for all those things.
Let's throw in 1000 miners and we have 30 000$.
Should be enough for a warehouse rent, 2 people at maintenance, even some guard service, not sure about the US () costs, but it does sound viable for central Europe.

Problems start when, as Phil pointed, 6 cents isn't bringing profit, or you deal will only a small farm of 100-500 miners.

Yeah  for instance  I can get 4 cent power  in 1 year contracts  for a megawatt.

the facility is kind of raw.  0.04 x 1000 x 24 x 365  =  350,400  for 1 years power

the facility needs 100,000 in work
hire workers
rent the facility 5,000 a month 60,000

so 350 + 100 + 60 = 510k for that megawatt plus the workers you hire.

for me to say I could run  the gear alone  is not realistic  it would be 700 s9's  as 700 x 1.4 = 980 kwatts.

A bit too hard for a 1 man show.

you can see why  at 6 cents  the s9's are in danger  of dropping off.  which happened last october.

Very interesting about the 6 cent drop off. Makes me wonder what the overhead for these large mines is per miner. Even if they pay 3 cents for power, after costs for employees, infrastructure, maintenance, I wonder if their all in price would be closer to 5 or 6 cent level. Seems like all in hosting deals for large players >1MW are in the 5 to 6 cent range, so I'd guess the host's cost isn't too far below that.

yeah the dynamics of ½ the network being an s-9 make for some very interesting possibilities.

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I saved the post here and I deleted your post as I do not think linking Cash2 is appropriate for the BTC section.

It is tricky  because the first part of your post is okay IMO. As I do think a large price rise in BTC  could happen due to easy access with a card like you mentioned first.

A large BTC price rise would move the diff upwards like mad.

at 25000 usd the s9 makes money at a diff of 23.8t  as it earns  0.00013125 btc which is 3.28 a day   which supports 10 cent mining.  which means the s9 won't drop out until  the diff is 30t or more.

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Coins dropped last night to 9800

The new diff is pushing 12.7  a 7%  jump

this  is going  to drop off some s9's

I get 0.00002066 at viabtc  cut that by 7%  it is  0.00001921  btc  x 13 = 0.00024973 btc a day x 9800 = 2.44 a day

power is 1.3kwatts  or 31.2kwatts a day  x 8 = 2.49 in power cost.

8 cent s9 miner =  5 cent loser daily
7 cent s9 miner = 26 cents daily profit
6 cent s9 miner = 57 cents daily profit -------------------- when s9's  got to break even ay 6 cents in 2018 they dropped like flies
5 cent s9 miner = 88 cents daily profit

So 9800  and a diff of 12.7  is not the tipping point  but it is 57 cents away  from pushing out  a lot of s9's

as s9's will fall out at the 6 cent power level.

with 2 cent power you'd ROI with a $250 s9 in under 200 days, so seems like it would be a good idea to fill all extra capacity with them and wait for prices to stabilize on the more efficient miners. If BTC price goes up before the halving, you're making good $ with all those S9s, if price goes down you're not loosing and can pick up more efficient gear for a better price.

here is how we stand today


early numbers indicate more new gear is adding on.  but  with price at 10,200 downward pressure is there for all
s-9's
a841's
a851's

the estimate for that gear is  50 to 60 eh  the network is at 87eh.

If I had a lot of low power available and could get s9s on the cheap  they are still tempting to buy and mine with.  they earn 0.0000202 x 13 =  0.0002626 or  $2.68   at diff of 11.89t  they burn $1.25 a day at 4 cent power  profit of 1.43 a day  the ½ is 8 months away.  So the question for a 2-4 cent power guy  is do I load up on these and wind down the business if the ½ is a disaster.

Hopefully we'll see some of those s9s start to shut down. 13TH @ 1200W is a looser now at 10 cent power. At 13 diff 9 cent power is a looser.

Jump was to 11.89 t for diff.

Wonder if we go to 13 next jump.

It gets boring after a few days

If  I have it right  our blend of gear  is neutral it does not favor the host or me and buy solar  I effort this to happen.

for now  adding the 54th in s9  and the 156th in inno t3 + t17e   is fair.

next add may need to be 2x  s17 pro   and 2 x s9
 
or some avalon's

with some luck  we will get to 1500th by years end.

we are 890th + 210th =  1100th  +-5%

we can do 400th more then  we will need a new transformer.  but that is most likely in feb-apr time zone.

Still I do look forward to the 1+ ph level.

With 50-50 split, break even for your host would be 4.175 cents/kWh at 11.8t diff, 10k price, 4% pool fee.

Seems like I'm going to need to decided what to do with my s9s soon. They are hosted month to month, so I might have them shut down and sent back to me at the end of the month. Maybe try to tune them up with Braiins and squeeze a bit more life out of them.

yeah  3  x 263 = 789 so 42th beats the trump tax  very tempting to order 3 of them.

For me  having the 50-50 coin spilt s-9s work at a diff of 30 btc price of 10k but are not very fair to the hoster.

this is why we have only 220 th in s9 and 700th in m10 or better.

new orders of
4x s9                                 at 85 watts a th   54th
inno t3 50                          at 60 watts a th    50th
2x bitmain t17e                  at 55 watts a th   106th

                                                                   210th

are a blend designed to help both warehouse host and me+buysolar

we  may order

3x   s9       42th
1x s17 pro 50th

as next order.

the 210th + 890 = 1100th by nov 1-10

then order 90th  going to 1190th

then may get some gear from avalon  going to   1300th.

For 14TH and 1450W, I get break even power price of 8.7 cents at 11.8 diff.

For 16 diff, 6.4 cents.

It'll be interesting to see what happens, are s9s going to get retired or just shuffled around to the sub 3 cent power people?

S9k now listed at $263 on Bitmain, ships in 7 days. Looks like I may have missed the opportunity to sell my s9s for a reasonable price.

edit:

Calcs above were no pool fee, with 1% pool fee it goes to 8.6 and 6.35, 4%  goes to 8.35 and 6.15.

yeah  100 eh  and diff to go to 11.8t this jump on or about friday


11.8  diff will knock some s9's

16 diff and 10k coin price = lots of dead s9's

viabtc will be paying about 0.00002091 a th if diff is 11.8

viabtc will be paying about 0.00001547 a th if diff is 16

so 13 x 0.00001547 =    0.0002011 btc a day or $2.01 for free power

so

the s9's at 7 cents    "            "               "           "             or  $2.01 - 2.10 =    9 cent loss at 16 diff
the s9's at 6 cents    "            "               "           "             or  $2.01 -  1.80 =   20 cent profit at 16 diff
the s9's at 5 cents   "             "               "           "             or  $2.01 -  1.20 =    81 cent profit at 16 diff

we should see downward pressure on diff soon after we reach 14t

but going to 14t will be fast  since s9's will hold on at 7 cent power.

I have 3 s9's host at 4.5 cents  they cost me 145 a month for all 3

they do 40t  so 40 x 0.00002272 = 0.0009088 btc a day or 9.09 a day x 30 = 272.64 a month  - 145 = 127 profit.

when diff is 20 and coins are 10000 they will earn 145.86 a month - 145 power = 86 cents in a month

so 4.5 cent power is  good until a diff of 20  if coins are 10000.

Broke 100 .... Ouch.



from https://www.coinwarz.com/network-hashrate-charts/bitcoin-network-hashrate-chart