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Topic: Well the 2018 btc diff jumps are over so what will 2019 bring us? - page 15. (Read 9456 times)

legendary
Activity: 4256
Merit: 8551
'The right to privacy matters'
lots of cool factors for the diff.
 the s9's at 8 cents  13 x 0.00002272 x .94 =  0.00027764   or  $2.88 - 2.70 =   $0.18 profit  at next jump of 11.3
 the s9's at 7 cents    "            "               "           "             or  $2.88 - 2.10 =   $0.78 profit  at next  jump of 11.3
 the s9's at 6 cents    "            "               "           "             or  $2.88 -  1.80 =   $1.08 profit at next  jump  of 11.3
 the s9's at 5 cents   "             "               "           "             or  $2.88 -  1.20 =   $1.68 profit at next  jump of 11.3

So very soon  s9's  drop out.
legendary
Activity: 1554
Merit: 2037
Still early but I'd say we are heading into constant increase territory unless there is a price drop. All manufacturers have begun to deliver on their pre-orders and they have sold out for the next 3 months; were just lucky they weren't able to inundate the market immediately. This played a large factor in the fact that I moved most of my hashrate this morning to cut down on variance heading into this.

That would be a nice number for sure Phil, it would ultimately mean a bounce back after any large Diff jumps, as even the cheapest operations will hit a point where they phase them out. I'm curious to see how many are just running out the clock before the halving with no intention of continuing to upgrade or mine.
legendary
Activity: 4256
Merit: 8551
'The right to privacy matters'
why do you think only 50 of 83 eh are s9?

I did say or worse.  the peak in oct 2018 was 57eh on 1 day but 53eh on the diff close.

So  after that  more efficient gear and better firmware for the s-9 has happened.

and after a long decline in hash rate from oct to april  hash rate went up.

So I picked 50  It could be higher it could be lower.  we are +5% as of this morning  which is about 87 eh hashrate and diff of 11.3 coming up.
newbie
Activity: 41
Merit: 0
But we are approaching s9 drop off soon.  and 50 of 83 eh is s9 or worse.  Should be very interesting to see what happens when they start to drop off.

why do you think only 50 of 83 eh are s9?
legendary
Activity: 4256
Merit: 8551
'The right to privacy matters'
we should do 4-5%  in about 18 hours.

Latest Block:   592588  (27 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   104.4153%  (1901 / 1820.61 expected, 80.39 ahead)
Current Difficulty:   10183488432890XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 10648974008236 and 10650563331887
Next Difficulty Change:   between +4.5710% and +4.5866%

Previous Retarget:   August 18, 2019 at 4:19 PM
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 2:07 AM  (in 0d 18h 21m 22s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 2:10 AM  (in 0d 18h 24m 8s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 9h 47m 30s and 13d 9h 50m 17s

prices are also  still down under 10,000 at 9,567 usd

what does this mean?  hmm  an s9  doing 13th and 1200 watts

earns about 3 dollars a day before power
it burns about 30 kwatts a day

so

10 cent power would be 3.00 a day = breakeven
  9 cent power would be 2.70 a day = 30 cent profit
  8 cent power would be 2.40 a day = 60 cent profit
  7 cent power would be 2.10 a day = 90 cent profit
  6 cent power would be 1.80 a day = 1.20 profit
  5 cent power would be 1.50 a day = 1.50 profit

So for now  quite a bit of s9's are still mining.

I have 22 s9's that do 220th I spilt coins and earn 110 x .00002405 = 0.002645 btc or 25 usd a day for me.

But we are approaching s9 drop off soon.  and 50 of 83 eh is s9 or worse.  Should be very interesting to see what happens when they start to drop off.

if diff were 16 vs 10 most s9's would be losers at 5 cent and above.
sr. member
Activity: 355
Merit: 276
This is as of tue 27th

Latest Block:   592030  (7 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   102.6029%  (1343 / 1308.93 expected, 34.07 ahead)
Current Difficulty:   10183488432890XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 10439399298604 and 10472405985644
Next Difficulty Change:   between +2.5130% and +2.8371%
Previous Retarget:   August 18, 2019 at 4:19 PM
Next Retarget (earliest):   Sunday at 7:48 AM  (in 4d 13h 19m 16s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Sunday at 8:45 AM  (in 4d 14h 16m 15s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 15h 28m 34s and 13d 16h 25m 34s

buysolar and I are waiting on 1 t3 t50 from innosilicon along with 2 s9's from bitmain  will bring us to about

980th.  from about 910 th
102.6%  is decent number
if we go under 3%  it is a good jump.
legendary
Activity: 4256
Merit: 8551
'The right to privacy matters'
Latest Block:   591385  (3 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   102.8460%  (698 / 678.68 expected, 19.32 ahead)
Current Difficulty:   10183488432890XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 10373219726327 and 10519521018200
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.8631% and +3.2998%
Previous Retarget:   last Sunday at 4:19 PM
Next Retarget (earliest):   September 1, 2019 at 7:02 AM  (in 8d 21h 35m 16s)
Next Retarget (latest):   September 1, 2019 at 11:00 AM  (in 9d 1h 33m 43s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 14h 42m 7s and 13d 18h 40m 34s

this is as of friday the 23rd  hanging in under 4%  coins are 10,192.
legendary
Activity: 4256
Merit: 8551
'The right to privacy matters'
impressive mudslide video.

but we are up to 105% for diff 5% jump so far at  about  83eh an all time high


https://www.blockchain.com/charts/hash-rate


need to check that chart in a few days.   Even if that mine was all s17 pros  say  10000 units that is only

53th x 10 = 530th

53th x 100 = 5.3ph

53th x 1000 = 53ph

53th x 10000 = 530ph   which is under 1%  of network  if network is 77 to 83eh


a 10000 unit mine of s17s  is  :

 2.3 kwatts x 10 = 23kwatts
 2.3 kwatts x 100 = 230kwatts
 2.3 kwatts x 1000 = 2300kwatts or 2.3 mega watts
 2.3 kwatts x 10000 = 23000kwatts or 23 mega watts.


the building looked big and had  some big power wires  right there  so  it could have been a 2.3 to 23 mega-watt plant

but 530ph= .53eh  or .53/80 =  .66% of the network
legendary
Activity: 4256
Merit: 8551
'The right to privacy matters'
Low 2% is fine by me. This keeps reinforcing how few machines manufacturers have been able to pump out. We aren't seeing steady prolonged large jumps back to back, there seems to be 1 relief period in between. Hoping supply remains low and Diff doesn't just take off on us.  

Yeah we had a good four weeks.

The two that just past along with the next two weeks.

We will be at 10t which is okay enough. I guess around 83eh of hash.
legendary
Activity: 1554
Merit: 2037
Low 2% is fine by me. This keeps reinforcing how few machines manufacturers have been able to pump out. We aren't seeing steady prolonged large jumps back to back, there seems to be 1 relief period in between. Hoping supply remains low and Diff doesn't just take off on us. 
legendary
Activity: 4256
Merit: 8551
'The right to privacy matters'
about 7 hours  to go  to next jump.

We have a 2.49% jump coming


Four blocks to go. And +2%. Not that bad at all.
sr. member
Activity: 355
Merit: 276
We are at + 3.7%  coins are pretty stable at 10,200.00 - 10,400  the coinmarketcap is very bad at the moment as there is a flood to BTC.

Cryptocurrencies:  2450  •  Markets:  19948  •  Market Cap:  $269,524,049,601  •  24h Vol:  $61,912,073,356  • BTC Dominance:  69.1%

I see that 69.1% BTC as a bad number For crypto in general.
legendary
Activity: 4256
Merit: 8551
'The right to privacy matters'
We are becoming more and more industrial with gear.

M20s = 3000+ watts
M21s = 3000+ watts
t57   =  3000+ watts

once the system becomes more industrial  with 300megawatt farms  profit will always push to 4-6 cent  levels

much as what happened last fall/winter
hero member
Activity: 1438
Merit: 513
:O your right
On a sidenote blockstream is starting a service "MaaS" (fuc**** stupid seems like they are trying to reinvent the wheel)
this means a lot of Fortune500 companies that want into this endeavor are about to order a lot of miners and host/consult with blockstream
I imagine this will have a pretty heavy impact on difficulty.
legendary
Activity: 3234
Merit: 1220
Prices dropping fast
sr. member
Activity: 464
Merit: 301
We are about 5-6 days away from a 5% jump. Prices are over 11000.
legendary
Activity: 4256
Merit: 8551
'The right to privacy matters'
Latest Block:   588728  (10 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   100.2631%  (57 / 56.85 expected, 0.15 ahead)
Current Difficulty:   9985348008059.555XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 9997941478840 and 10216178070789
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.1261% and +2.3117%
Previous Retarget:   Yesterday at 10:40 PM
Next Retarget (earliest):   August 18, 2019 at 9:47 PM  (in 13d 13h 38m 35s)
Next Retarget (latest):   August 18, 2019 at 10:37 PM  (in 13d 14h 28m 32s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 23h 7m 6s and 13d 23h 57m 3s

Last jump  was solid .  We did have a big coin move  so it is not that painful.
legendary
Activity: 4256
Merit: 8551
'The right to privacy matters'
Latest Block:   588218  (10 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   108.3234%  (1563 / 1442.90 expected, 120.1 ahead)
Current Difficulty:   9013786945891.682XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 9730710713547 and 9772040894015
Next Difficulty Change:   between +7.9536% and +8.4122%
Previous Retarget:   July 23, 2019 at 7:10 AM
Next Retarget (earliest):   Monday at 5:21 AM  (in 2d 21h 41m 55s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Monday at 6:39 AM  (in 2d 23h 0m 8s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 22h 10m 56s and 12d 23h 29m 9s

I am up to 900th  so 900 x 0.0000275= 0.02475 btc a day

and that is 260 usd  this jump will drop us down to  0.02277 btc a day.

we are adding an inno t50  sometime in aug  it would help with this diff.



well diff is in about 6 blocks  and should clear 10,000,000,000  an 11% jump

price  has risen back to 11,200  

last jump was on the 23rd price was 9900   price is now 11,090  this is about 11 percent pretty much matches the diff jump of about 11%
legendary
Activity: 4256
Merit: 8551
'The right to privacy matters'
we are plus 7%

Latest Block:   587901  (3 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   107.2216%  (1246 / 1162.08 expected, 83.92 ahead)
Current Difficulty:   9013786945891.682XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 9572198056432 and 9674565183042
Next Difficulty Change:   between +6.1951% and +7.3308%
Previous Retarget:   July 23, 2019 at 7:10 AM
Next Retarget (earliest):   Monday at 8:32 AM  (in 4d 23h 41m 23s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Monday at 11:50 AM  (in 5d 2h 59m 28s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 1h 22m 10s and 13d 4h 40m 15s

So the bitmain sales have been moving the diff up.  along with other gear from innosilicon.

a 7% jump is a lot of gear.

But  the s-9 dynamic is still in play

I have 3 s9's  hosted  at a very good price.  145 usd a month  under 5 cents
So at coin price of 9700
and a diff of 9.679t my 3 pieces earn about  309 usd a month  power is 145 net of 164 a month

no effort on my part except to pay the 145 a month bill.

they will make money at a diff of 16.68 and coin price of 9700 net of 40 a month

last october we had a peak of 57eh hash for arguments sake  make it 52eh/13th = 4,000,000 s9's

our current hash rate is 68-79 eh or 72eh

so 4,0000,000 s9's = 52eh  and 400,000 s17's   = 20eh

93 watts a th        vs               42 watts a th

as s17 (all new gear) grows    there will be a tipping point for s9's

We will see growth flatten for a 2-4 month period when the s-9's drop off market.
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