Topic: Well the 2018 btc diff jumps are over so what will 2019 bring us? - page 11. (Read 9455 times)

the 13k run up was odd I will say that. But it was a year in advance to the ½ ing.

... or maybe we already did that. Who knows? I don't. That's for sure.

That would be good ... if we hit 15K I might sell enough BTC to pay my hosting bills for the year ... which of course will all but guarantee BTC will immediately go to 30k.

It is not priced in if you go by ltc it was priced in about 60 days before and around the ½ ing  coins flowed up and over

120 usd

they are now 56 usd.

if you think btc mirrors ltc before the ½ ing  we go over 15k. maybe over 20k.  from april 2020 to june 2020.

If everybody thinks there will be a run-up before the halving, it's probably already priced in. Makes for the possibility of a lot more volatility and downside.

I don't buy that the loss of ~900BTC per day actually has any real effect on the price when trading volume is > 1,000,000BTC per day.

Yes, of course that is the big "if" we all live and dream about....but I don't make any business plans with that factored in. Look at the LTC halving as a bellwether or "leading indicator" as to what we can expect from a BTC halving. The whole world is looking for the big pre-halving rally based on diminished available supply. I lean very strongly towards doing the opposite of the "general thinking". LTC did exactly the opposite of the common assumptions. LTC holders/miners got burned on Diff AND Price. I hope I am dead wrong, but I think it's prudent to prepare for the exact same thing to happen in BTC.

I firmly believe that in the end, BTC is not influenced by many factors other than use cases and adoption. Unfortunately...we are looking at basically the same level of "BTC use cases" and "BTC adoption" that we have been looking at for 3-4 years. No one can know for sure but it's reasonable to assume that BTC price is fairly close to "Fair Market Value +/- 20%", based on those facts. In addition, Mining gear has just had a massive leap in efficiency and overall availability. So...from my perspective, it is likely that I can reasonably expect future price to remain the same +/- 20% and Difficulty to continue it's upward trend for the next 3-6 months.

After the Halving, there will be a massive bloodletting in mining. The game board will once again be cleared similar to Q2-Q4 2018.

Free advice is worth what you pay for it. Mine is...keep your powder dry...prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

Right now we have multiple layers or walls of mining gear.

S9's 50 to 60eh running 85 to 110 watts a th
S15's
S17's
S17 pro's  can do as little as 36-37 watts  a th at 40th speed.

avalon
a1041 60-70 watts a th
a1047  "
a1066 "

innosilicon
t2t 30 75 watts a th
t3t 40
t3t 50 62 watts a th
t3t 57

whatsminer
m10
m20
m20s 49 watts a th
m21
m21s
[email protected]
So all the gear above causes a lot  of price points to fail for mining

my best 3 units are the m20s two do 49 watts a th at 67 and 68 th and the single s17 pro 53th which does 54.5th at middle speed  2225 watts per 54.5th = 41 watts a th

My 1ph of gear is mixed if I were all s17 pro 53th I would have a nice big fat smile.

I now think of all the choices above and slowly expand. I am adding 2 t17e's in nov and 2 a1066 this month.  I will go from 1 ph to 1.2 ph


nic1106

well ... if BTC price goes up faster than manufacturers can deliver gear, you could make out pretty good. There have been articles mentioning that asic manufacturers can't get as much fab capacity as they'd like.

Seems like any move at the moment has an even longer list of risk factors than normal though.

They're not great but not bad:

24T±5%
1620W±10%

I understand your point, but once the dust settles, these units will need to compete with 7NM correct, and the effect they are having on overall difficulty? I did factor in the greater efficiency and low power modes available, which influenced my decision to go ahead with the purchase. But, when I plug in post Halvening metrics to test profitability under a stressed environment, IE; Low price and High Diff, they fare only slightly better than the survivability of an S9I 14th at 1350 watts. But for now, yes your point is well taken. They do make sense prior to the reward cut.

Sidenote; These units are definitely running towards the +10% I would count on 1782 watts at 24th setting.

Node size matters less than bottom-clock efficiency. What's the best low power mode on those?

I believe T2T 30th units are 16nm. They are almost as susceptible to post halvening obsolescence as the S9. I made the likely mistake of buying 100 of them becasue I thought they were a good deal. We'll see. Did you use this example as an " S9 replacement"? I suspect that the T2T is just a small portion of the new gear hitting the shelves and the rest of it is 7nm as opposed to 16nm.

Diff only down 1/2 % already now. Creeping back like bad under wear.

Ahh, ok, thanks for elaborating. Yeah, I'm one of those needing to sub out old gear and would like to expand too...but it seems now really isn't the right time unless looking for T17s or something as a bridge to past the halvening period then see what gear is out there along with knowing the difficulty/price.

Do we think the S17e's will be below say $2k sometime next summer? Either that or huge jump in gear technology. Do you all think the manufacturers are able to stay on pace with the halvenings every 4 years or getting closer to even them being at the end of the road?

What makes it difficult is s9 converting to new gear.

Let’s say 100,000 s9s were powered down this jump.

It could be a few farms farm is retooling to go to the m20s

They need to re wire and re arrange setup. They may have gear turned off for an entire jump retool and switch to 40,000 m20s. That would be same power foot print around 130 megawatts .  But hash would look like a drop of 1.4eh  then a gain of 2.7eh. That would swing network .

The ceo of MicroBT claims 100000 m20s are to be delivered sept oct. if true we will see farm turnovers.

Of all possible moves the one above seems possible which may drop us 2-3% then jump us 4-6%. Time will tell.

10 million dollars worth of mining gears is a lot , assuming it was all T2T-30TH , price is about 1000$  for brand new, that is 10000*T2T(30th) = 300000TH or 300ph , that is a lot of hash power , and I doubt those gears are new, so anything close to 1EH is possible there.

We are at 86E now, down from nearly 102E just 5 days ago, so pretty close to Aug difficulty,which is not bad, I don't expect this last for long , we are 18 blocks behind, but we still have 1291 blocks for next difficulty adjustment.

Totally agree with Philipma. Many more moving parts in this cycle. My time horizon may be broader in length but the outcome will be the same. We'll either see a price driven washout pre-halvning, or the major bloodletting will be during and post halvening. Bottom line is, no matter what they are at the time, profits will cut in half. You'd better be on extremely sound footing at that time if you are going to survive. I don't care about the size of these build outs. I know most of them are going to go under. They really don't know what they're doing. Too much unnecessary capital commitment. My game plan is getting as little exposure to 16nm gear as possible before the halvening. The 7nm will survive. Then when the bleeding starts, and I don't know exactly when that will be, you hit the gas on expansion. That's why I give such a wide time horizon. I have no idea when it will happen or how. i just know it will.

My biggest hope is that a LOT of these pre-sales ended up in the hands of re-sellers. It's a decent probability. They love to speculate on the pre-sales. Bitmain and Co. always make them feel like they're getting a good deal so they can flip units. Re-sellers are notoriously greedy and uneducated about mining. Like Blockware solutions. Total uninvolved speculators. Not a clue about this space or it's intended use. Just greedy middlemen. If they are holding a good portion of the pre-sales then we're all in a better place. I believe they are.

I would think he sees a dip to 6-7k soon then price move upwards  from feb to may.

It is tough  as I  see  the s9's being  shut down which flattens the diff for a while say 14 to 16 t lasts quite a while.

If this happens  it can do price chases diff.  rather then diff chasing price.  Rare but it does happen.  I felt this occurred in Oct-Dec last year. Diff went flat then prices dropped.

The s9 factor  of 50-60eh of loser hashing gear is hard to calculate.  I did very well last year  calling the exacting turning point if diff adjustments  I believe it was early oct.

I was very confident that would happen.

I am less confident here  as  many new miners can do 50 watts a th.
Many large builds are being discussed 300 megawatts in canada.
a huge amount of s-9s ready to drop off.
the ½ ing in 200 days or so.

Lots more to guess with here.

Epoch, can you elaborate what you mean in your last sentence as the next big opportunity "before, during, after" the halvening? Are you focusing narrowly on just a 2/3 month period right before/right after, or something else?

Yes....this is a very large fly in the ointment. Many of these excited new entrepreneurs don't even begin to realize the challenges that large build outs present. Furthermore, most of them are making insane cost commitments in the form of large infrastructure and brick and mortar lease burdens. Most just look at current profit projections and extrapolate that into some hare brained, long term business plan, under the assumption that they can see those returns on an ongoing basis. That's exactly the reason the Bitmain miners being delivered in DECEMBER are going at ridiculous cost to earnings metrics. The standard Brick and Mortar mining farm option is already obsolete and is about to go through some pretty violent death throws. In my estimation, the next big opportunity in mining will come before, during and after the halvening.

You mean this news blurb? https://news.bitcoin.com/quebec-allocates-300-mw-energy-quota-for-crypto-mining/ Also found mention of a 300MW solar project in Alberta but that only refers to households as customers.

Gotta say that now that Quebec regulators have come to their senses, looks very very interesting

I can confirm as some with miners at hosted facility in China..they've given us notice that from 9/29-10/7 the miners were powered down.....I'd say that is going on throughout their country, slashing hashrate for another week or so...then should be able to analyze better if S9s are shutting down before the ramp back up from the new gear coming online in late October on forward.