Topic: When you are confident with your picks, do you win most of the time? (Read 800 times)

If gamblers can realizes that they will have two result when gambling, they will not trying to use much money because they can lose anytime. They will difficult to wins as in gambling, we can only have a bigger chance to lose and winning in gambling needs luck althouhgh we are confident with our picks. When we placing our bet, we don't have to feels confident because anything can happens in the field so we are just placing the bet and wait for the result in the ends of the game. We can only prevents the big lose in gambling so we must not risks too much money when playing gambling.

Even if gambling doesn't have uncertainties, people will still placing their bet and playing gambling without stops because they thinks that gambling can gives them much money. They will still trying to wins even with more money and don't thinks about how much their lose later. If they can be wise when playing gambling, they will not risks too much money just to chase the wins because they will thinks that their chance to wins will not too big. They will just use the money they can afford to playing gambling because they don't wants to gets big lose from gambling. They only wants to be responsible when playing gambling and that's why they will only use enough money to gambling.

Yes, it means that gamblers must realize that gambling is not only about the chances of winning but also there is another part that can never be separated, namely the possibility of losing, and as we know that everyone does not like the name losing money, while losing in gambling is a very possible thing that can make them lose money. So there is no other way to avoid the possibility of losing a large amount than by only risking a small amount.

It's fair to say that gambling will always be an activity that doesn't have any certainties and guarantees regarding the outcome at the end of the session especially when it comes to winning, and that's why many of us always recommend only risking small amounts. The fact of the matter is that no matter how confident you are in your choice of decision at the end of the day, confidence is not something that can guarantee victory. This means as you said that anything can happen even if we are very sure of our choice, and the other thing is that betting a small amount will certainly make it easier for us to take responsibility for any results, especially defeat.

Risking small amounts to playing gambling will be better than use much money to avoids the big lose. That's already happens to many gamblers but they don't realizes that they must reduce their money that they used to playing gambling. We don't have to follows what they do because we must responsible with our money so we don't gets the same experienced as them. We can feels confident with our picks, but we must not feels too confident because we still don't knows what will happens in the end of the match. Even if we wins with our pick, we can't hopes that we can wins more in the next match because every match can't gives the same results.

The last minutes can changes drastically so we must be careful when placing the bet. We must realizes that our picks can lose anytime so we don't have to be seriously when placing the bet. If we can enjoy the match while we gambling, we will not thinks about our bet because our reason is not makes money but we wants to have fun by place a bet. We must prevents our emotion becomes big if we lose from our prediction and realizes that's a gambling which can gives us lose and wins.

There’s a lot of picks that gives a decent odds while the match is still can be easily analyzed. Some bookie made an error on assigning odds on matches since they are just relying on stats while you can take advantage on it if you are watching the league closely so that you can analyze and choose a team that has a potential to beat the odds or what popularly known as dark horse. You don’t need to become courageous on picking higher odds which you knew that winning is hard to attain. You just need to become patient on choosing the right odds.

Besides, you can always increase your bet size to compensate with the low odds so that you can still win decent amount even if the odds is small, at least you are still betting on match that you are confident on winning rather than doing force but just to increase odds of your bets.

This is why gambling is called an activity that really cannot be predicted because after all the results at the end of the session are always random, and you have proven that when you gamble by choosing decisions that are not in accordance with your analysis but the results even win and I think it is very clear that in random activities the scenario will continue to be different, or different times then the results will also be different even if for example you do it with the same method, meaning that it does not mean that choosing decisions that are not in accordance with our analysis will always result in victory.

Yes it is a new way found by OP but however we must return to a straight understanding of gambling which is still gambling where whatever the way or whatever the method is the results will not always be in accordance with our expectations, meaning don't put too much hope in the methods we believe in.

Not really, I feel like it's not confidence but more like courage that I feel when I bet, confidence implies that I believe in that team but I don't bet on the winning all the time because of how low the odds are, so I'm not confident that I'm betting on the winning team. Most of the time, it's just that I have to strengthen my nerves because I'm basically betting my money in the hopes that the one that's not favored to win will do the miracle and win the match. I think that what you feel doesn't even have anything to do with the possible outcome of the bet, that's outside of the game after all which means that no matter what you feel about your bet, if the team that you've placed your bet just sucks and is being completely dominated by the other team, you're probably better off having any kinds of feeling.

Yes you have a good approach by only risking small amounts that you can afford to lose and I hope you can maintain that approach for a long time to come because after all that's the only thing that can keep us awake and away from any unfortunate eventualities like losing a large amount of money. And yes I like your thinking where you say that even though we are sure of our decision but it does not mean that we will win at the end of the session, and that is a good mindset and perspective on gambling where in addition to knowing that there is a chance of winning but we also realize that the risk of losing is something that can definitely happen at any time.

One of them is like the scenario that I have exemplified before when I saw the UCL competition in the semi-final match where initially Bayern Munich fans seemed very confident that victory was in their camp but in the end yes the last 3 minutes changed everything. So actually in gambling the various impacts of the worse possibilities depend on us in terms of managing our gambling activities, if for example from the start we understand that gambling is always about winning and losing then I think it is less likely for a gambler to eventually experience emotions and take various actions that endanger himself, everything comes back to the ability to accept facts at the end of the session, and that's why we are always advised to be responsible gamblers.

I always limiting my budget when betting and only use small money to place bet for one match. By using that, I can place more than 2 matches and whatever the outcomes, I will not thinks too much. Your example in the UCL shows to us that anything can happens in the match so when we feels confident with our picks, that doesn't mean we can wins on that match. We must be careful if some surprises comes to the match and that can makes us lose the money. If we can accept the outcomes and we can manage our bet, I think we don't have to feels sad if we lose because we understand that we already trying what we can but the reality is different from what we wants. We can only try without have a big chance to knows who will wins and when we can wins. If we luck, we can wins but if we lose, we don't have to regrets our lose. We can wins in the next match so we can still place the bet.

Confidence does not translate to certainly, and even if we are certain about the picks, it does not still guarantee the winning. We should not also forget that over-confidence is even not good in gambling, it has put a lot of people in trouble, especially those who have let their beliefs/assurance intoxicate them to the extent of wagering too big amount of money but in the end lose the money. This could be painful which is an excellent reason why we should even be careful about this confidence as a context since it is such that should be used in moderation and in such a way that the gambler has planned the right management to lessen any negative effect of it.

Also, gamblers should always know that even if they are very good at what they are doing and have the best possible picks, gambling will always be risky and luck is a strong factor here at the same time. It takes luck for gamblers to have that pick and still win it regardless of how confident such a gambler is towards the choice made.

Yes, you have said the right thing above that in a match anything can happen on the field and this is what makes me keep limiting my budget when betting on football betting, none other than because as you said and it is true that anything can happen. on the field which can turn things around, or in the sense that even though initially the team we are betting on is in a superior situation but if the match is not over then anything can happen there that has the potential to turn things around, and if I discuss this I am reminded of last week where At first Bayern Munich managed to take the lead against Real Madrid in the UCL in the match for the final but it turned out that it only took 3 minutes for Real Madrid to turn things around which made them win in the final minutes before the end of the match and this is one of the scenarios that is never expected. very likely to occur in the field. Therefore, I think it is clear that the point is that wherever we bet, various restrictive measures that lead to prevention will always be an important aspect, such as only risking small amounts.

Exactly. Gambling is for fun so we don't have to serious playing gambling. We can analyze the match but we should not have a big hopes to wins because we must remember that in the field, many things can happens and once something change, that can effect to our prediction. We can't deny that many surprises can happens when the match shows and that makes us to use the money we can afford to lose. We can't always wins the most of time because the change factors that happens in the match so we must not use gambling as a place to makes money. We can only place a bet, watch the match or leave it like that and wait for the outcomes and if we lose, we should accept the outcomes and not trying to recovers our money because that will be difficult to do.

Well, it seems like that often happens to me too. At that time when I was sure I would win and there are pretty good odds to choose but what happened was that choice actually led to a loss, and the right one is the other odds that I didn't choose (by the way, I often play football betting).

However, when I felt unsure about the odds I chose and I decided to just watch the match without betting but what happened was that my chosen odds turned out to be the correct guess. I've also thought what if I did it all the other way around but when the time came, it turned out that I didn't have enough courage to do it.

Yeah, what he believes gonna be the winner from his analysis then he bets on it for Lossing just opposite of what he analysize. And vice versa, this method remind me of old school days were we choose opposite of what we think is the right answer and end up getting it correctly.

For me OP, is tryna finding an edge of which I believe he has gotten. The truth is, OP should leverage on that if it works and probably adapt it because and sort out means to improve more . It happens most at times, we need to man up and get rid of emotion, huge expectancy as gamblers.

The very first thing I played was roulette and I used the Martin Gale strategy, this was more than 10 years ago. Oh, how naive I was, it really seemed to me that I was smarter than the casino and would not lose with such a strategy, now it’s just funny for me to remember it, lol. It is now clear to many that it doesn’t matter at all what to bet on, the main thing is that in the long run the casino will take its commission if a 0 is rolled out. But this is one of the fastest ways to win or lose money, you can find out the result in just a couple of seconds, but I I haven’t played for a long time and some casinos have a limit on bets. Despite everything, for some reason I like this game, probably because of its simplicity and the fact that it was the first of my gambling games, this is a kind of nostalgia for me.

I think it's more dangerous for the gaining profits from gambling. In gambling there will always both some times you will gain profit and sometime you will get lost. If you think in gambling peoples always get profited from gambling then you are in wrong thought. And I also wanna say that when you realised by your own self  gambling is not profitable for you or your losing amount is crossing your affordable limit then immediately stop gambling take a break from gambling recover yourself and after that play again as you can afford to lose.
Anyway it has happened to me many times that I have made a prediction and lost it due to bad luck even though I was confident about it and that's gambling here not only prediction power but also luck. Because it's all about the luck.

Gambling is fun For those who gamble for fun, betting with friends is more fun than online gambling. Because when you gamble online you enjoy it alone but when you gamble offline with friends the joy is much greater when you are together. I gamble online but I am not very familiar with the games.  Among certain games I play, Blackjack is my favorite game. And here my guess works very well. the decisions I make are successful most of the time.

Seriously, winning has nothing to do with our state of mind when gambling. From my personal experience and observations from others, betting placed with so much confidence mostly end up losing than bet placed with calmness and less expectations. Forget about gambling and let talk about the real life, over confidence make things worse and decisions taken with under such conditions are likely to fail. Talking from experience, I have been disappointed several times with games I played with so much confidence and they end up falling my hands and likewise, I do win some games I play with less expectations when I don't pay much attention but surprisingly, they become green.

However, being confident and winning a bet depends on the games you normally play. There are games that you can be confidently relaxed after playing them and they will play according to your prediction but games like football doesn't fit in this category. In games like table tennis, I do pick with confident and win depending on the player vs player since it's individual game but team games will hardly work out well.

This means that your choice was not assessed by all factors influencing the final result of the bet. It turns out your analysis was wrong. Or, your choice was based on emotions, such as betting on the teams or athletes you systematized.

In gambling, as in investing, one should not allow the influence of emotions and to achieve the desired result (making a profit or winning), one should be guided only by cold calculations. But we should not forget about the element of surprise (chance), when even the favorite can make a mistake and lose to a contender with less chance of winning.

This is a typical mistake of gamblers - to believe (hope for the desired outcome of the bet). Whereas, you need to know (realistically assess) the chances of winning (detailed analysis).

          -   I just noticed what you said, Op. What do you mean by betting on the opposite of your analysis? Is this what you think will win but you will actually lose, and what you think will lose but your bet will be correct? Is this what you mean?

Because it appears from the experiment you did that you challenged that with your own strategy that you use when you play gambling in the crypto gambling business, it seems like that's what you want to convey.

Although I don't have much experience in gambling but I have gambled with friends during IPL or such tournaments.  Gambled online as well as offline with friends. When there are different sports there are offers from one side which team I will take and based on that team they offer me money and if my team wins then I get good amount of money from there. Gambling like this has yielded several results in my favor but I have lost some matches again because the results were not what I expected.