Topic: When you are confident with your picks, do you win most of the time? - page 7. (Read 800 times)

This topic is a YES/NO answer but still there is more to it. However, gamble is a gamble that has to do with luck, so it doesn't matter if you are confident or not about the games you pick and predictions, without luck you can't be able to win either big or small money. That's just the truth about gamble. It's important to know the basics in gamble so we don't over do ourselves.
I think I have to totally disagree with this.
However everyone have their own opinions about gambling, but from my end, I beliefs that gamble is not a thing someone should be sure if, even when you are winning or losing you shouldn't be too sure and over confidential about your picks or predictions because that's nothing, you might be sure about the whole predictions but the truth remains that if you are not lucky, you can't be able to win both small or big money.
Yes agreed with this.
Gamblers should try and risk the amount that they can afford to lose because it isn't right to lose what you can not afford. So in this case, for a gambler to not feel bad even when he lose his bet, he should try and risk any amount that he knows fully well he can afford to lose.

Basing up in all the experience i do have with betting then i could say that im in the break even side or something in the profitable but only in minimal. I dont mind much as long i do make myself that having the thrill and excitement towards my betting because this is really the main motive on why you do make bets but of course it cant be avoided that people would be longing on how to make money. On the moment or time that you would
be able to be confident with your picks then you would be normally thinking that it would be a sure win but based up on experience there are really things which can unexpectedly happen which would affect in overall
result or outcome of the said game on which this is something not really shocking. This what makes betting more entertaining or thrilling is that you dont know on whats coming.

If you do win then its good but if not or losing then just simply move on because if you would be finding yourself that become that impulsive about your loses then this is where you would be finding yourself
that being addicted because of having that lose control then this is where problem would really be starting to come out. About confidence then im not really that putting myself on having that 100% sure or
having that expectation for a bet to have that sure win because on the moment that you would be expecting something to be a sure win and if it had lost then you would definitely be having
that huge disappointment on which it could possibly trigger up yourself on having that early addiction kind of behavior.

Confidence somehow determines the outcome of the game if you are involved in the sport. Some people gamble with computer games that they control. In such a case, the gambler needs confidence to win the game. When it comes to sports betting you have to rely on your analysis and luck. Choosing games out of passion without considering the current performance of the clubs might always bring losses.

The most important thing is to gamble with what you can be able to afford so that losses will not have many adverse consequences on your finances. But just as OP has indicated it might also be proper to change gambling strategy if the present one is not yielding the expected results.

I don't know if your winnings are something that comes just to tempt you to stay longer in your involvement in gambling or not, but certainly in gambling anything can happen regardless of the way you have to gamble and regardless of whether you are a beginner or an experienced gambler.

And now you are saying that when you have been involved in gambling for a while that now your confidence is leading you to lose more and more unlike before when you were still in the beginner stage, it is actually very difficult to find a reason why this scenario can occur because after all there is nothing that can be used as a benchmark in gambling because gambling has always been an activity that can never be predicted about the results at the end of the session, and maybe I would simply say that when you were in the beginner stage it was a situation where you were in a phase of good luck that could make hundreds of dollars.

I have played many games applying the martingale, and if it is a strategy that I do not recommend using, I used it because it is a strategy that comes out of pure instinct and is a strategy that is based on the most natural desire to play to win, but You have to have a lot of money to be able to do something, and with a lot of balance it is not advisable, because you can lose everything, that is a very good strategy for the casino, but not for the player, the player always gets carried away by his coins and You end up losing a lot of money, that's why I don't Recommend it and I recommend that anyone who applies it not do it anymore.

Self-confidence is good and important, but self-confidence should not be excessive because perhaps it comes from our sense of ambition for something, especially when it comes to gambling. I am also confident in my gambling, but I know which limits I should not cross when that confidence is very high. Because even in a state of self-confidence, when we lose, we will lose. And when we are not confident when we have to win, then victory will come.
I've experienced something like this several times. How can we possibly be confident with the amount of balance we only have left for 5 more spins in the slot game. I just did a spin and didn't expect much, but do you know what happened? I can get maximum wins with my very small balance. This is what is called luck. That's how gambling is, we don't know when we'll win, and what I know is that I mostly accept losses and defeats. Lol

My results were varied. Some bets were correct, and bets that were the opposite of what I expected, like the recent Fury-Usyk fight. Analysis gives Usyk an edge, but my hunch told me that I should go for Fury, and the rest is history.

There are matches that I'm confident in my picks, but I followed other recommendations and got the best results
That's the fact of sports betting when two fighters who are almost equal and both have a chance to dominate the other.

I have come to realize that sports betting has many surprises, especially in the sport that I'm betting on, which is boxing.
 

After feeling confident and ready to wager the house, you say, "Nah, maybe I'll bet AGAINST myself." Seriously mental! Besides the game, betting is about your thinking. Humans are odd, overconfident, and assume they know more than they do. That's why fading your own picks is so effective. It's like wrestling with your ego to change your perspective. Fading isn't the end. It's a tool to test your instincts. You must change. Use data, algorithms, and whatever else to improve your decision-making. You must combine intuition with facts.

This is what I felt back in the days when i was younger gambler , I remember that confidence bring me hundred bucks(considering that I am just teenager those days) because when i have this feeling then the number i choose mostly comes to win.

But nowadays it changes mate, because  now the more confident I am? is the more I am losing this is same reason why i am now gamble to enjoy and let the luck brings me the wins .

This idea has been shared in the past on different topics where the OP talked about reversed gambling, which means to go against the predictions of the majority of gamblers. For example, if lots of gamblers are predicting Man-U to defeat Liverpool, you decided to stake the reverse of what the majority have predicted. It kind of works most of the of the time, but not all the time, Reverse gambling doesn't give you a win all the time, just as your real pick that you are so confident about will not give you a win all the time either. 

If that's working for you then nothing is wrong in that approach but for me my own picks work most of the time and that's why I never bet against those.

The win rate of my own picks is quite high because I only bet against the much weaker teams and most of the times leading teams crush the weak teams easily.

I place few bets per month but those work for me. I place bets on cricket events most of the time but sometimes I place bets on other events as well.

 

Do you mean betting on something that is contrary to your analysis and then you win? If yes then I wouldn't say that it's wrong, or I mean I don't think there's anything wrong with doing that. Just remember that analysis or strategy is just something to increase your chances of winning and not to ensure or guarantee that you will actually win at the end of the session.

This means that any result can still happen even if for example you bet by applying the analysis or strategy that you believe in, and that is natural because after all we are talking about gambling which is an activity that can never be predicted with 100% accuracy, and from the story you experienced you managed to win by betting the opposite of the analysis you had and the result won, meaning you are really lucky, and also means that luck is the most important point in gambling. On the other hand, I have also experienced almost the same scenario where I did not expect to win at all or when I bet in a perfunctory way but the result won, and I think this is normal because after all this is like gambling.

Gamblers have different preferences when it comes to betting. Some gamblers trust their decisions because of their ego; they think they are always right, and some don't care; all they want is to enjoy themselves, whether the picks come from their analysis or a third party.

For me, I don't mind having a choice from a third party pick I always do that when I am betting in a horse racing because some people have inside knowledge on what's going inside so they can give accurate tips, for me if you want to make a profit from gambling you have to be flexible and open to suggestions and tips you cannot be perfect all the time in gambling.

Interesting, it seems like you are trying to review your bet after not making much profit. and yeah, you tried to do the experiment as you said. For me, I don't plan to bet on the opposite of what we have predicted based on the analysis results. But, if you do as you say and win the bet, that's good for you. At the very least, you know your analysis results are wrong again. In fact, there is nothing wrong with what you are saying, this is just a matter of our perspective in terms of sports betting. Not infrequently, I experience the same situation as you. for me personally, this is something that is commonplace in sports betting.
In fact, we don't always bet following the same strategy. In fact, we also involve feelings in analyzing. For example, for example, if I don't believe that the team I choose will produce the results I expect. for example, my favirot team will compete against other strong teams. or, whatever it is that clouds our choices when making decisions when going to a betting session. There are only variables that cause our analysis to not be as accurate as we hope, the most crucial factor is the problem of luck.

Besides, maybe you and I didn't really pay attention when analyzing. There could also be other causes, which lead to defeat. After that, we try to review the results of our bets and analysis. The main point is, whatever it is, there is always a risk in every betting session we make. In fact, someone can randomly bet according to what he wants without involving analysis. If our luck is high, victory will not go anywhere. If we have to lose, no matter how clever we are in our analysis, in the end there are only two probabilities, winning or losing. Even then, if we bet on a team, for example, the option is 1×2 betting. Personally, I always involve many options and variables when carrying out a betting session. after all, everything is to minimize losses. one more thing, I also don't hesitate not to bet if I really don't have confidence in my analysis.

Hmmm sometimes if it works on you, it will work again when you try it for the second time, It depends on how luck attached on you. Sometimes, being a confident on your bets leads you to bet bigger amount on your next try which results you to overspending in gambling, the confident feeling that you've felt should assess accordingly because spiking up on your emotions will results you in the unexpected decisions that are made.

I have often thought this about this idea. Because when I favor a team, that team often loses. When my gambling losses increase. Then I started thinking about it. Like you I thought that since my losses are high if I keep my betting analysis at the same level and take the opposite when placing bets then I may win there. According to sources this idea is correct. But even if you implement the idea in terms of betting, I still don't have the courage to take such a decision. Because after analysis I have no scope to support the opposite team. No one wants to make a mistake knowingly. However, my results suggest that such a decision should be made. But I definitely dream of using this idea to change my results. I will use this idea to my advantage.

It worked for you then does not mean that it will work for you again. Try it again and come tell us on this thread your result if it worked again for you. I believe that luck was what played out that that was why your instinct told you to bet in opposite of your picks.

Sometimes our luck comes from our inner mind spirit that will direct you on how to place the bet in order for you to win it, but the amount that you will use to place the bet will be your own personal decision. This is why you see that some gamblers use big amount and they become lucky to win very big and vice versa.

That means you are getting better at it. Congratulations, bro.

Me too, I checked my settled bets in 10 pages and I can see I have more wins than my losses. I didn't compute the odds though with how much I win or lose. I just used the number of wins versus the number of losses and I can see that it's like 60+ percent winning rate which I think is okay-ish. Not perfect but good enough.
Being a sports predictor is not easy especially when you have teams that you are a fan of. It could ruin the choice which means losses because you are following your emotions instead of profits first. I think that's what I want to change now. It's going to be difficult but if I could somehow avoid betting for the team that I am a fan of then I won't be losing more.

If an industry is betting with a particular strategy and always having numerous losing streaks then the best thing to do is to restrategise, use another strategy or method like you did and maybe things could get better or they could be lucky to start winning their bet. Yes luck plays a role in gambling but a good strategy matters as well, if an individuals strategy is not good enough then they'll keep facing losses.

 There was once when I used to bet on multiple games of about 20-30 asides with little stakes, although it worked once and I felt that's a good strategy but the rest of the times I was very unfortunate but when I cut my number of games to about 3-6 and staked a little high, I noticed my number if losing streaks reduced and since then you'll barely see me bet beyond 6 or 10 games no matter how sure the games look.

It is a normal thing as I can say. Personally when I consider that my picks has not been favourable for some periods of time, I will always dare to pick the opposite sides which my instincts would have most doubts that it can never be the winning ones.

Though in such switching modes, I will always minimize the amount of my stakes because my confidence never lyes there. The honest fact from my side of experience is that it does not make differences to say it has been a winning trick for me. It still lyes on the game of luck.