Topic: When you are confident with your picks, do you win most of the time? - page 8. (Read 787 times)

so what you're saying in essence is that if I'm betting a game that involves man city playing a smaller team like west ham or shiefield united, If I initially played that manchester City was winning the match that I should later change my choice and stake that the reverse will be the case? And you think that it will work out well? Interesting.

While we know that sometimes when it involves teams that you aren't sure if thier form that you can just use guess work and the game might enter, I don't think it will work well in the long run and that one can actually choose to use that as a strategy to placing your bet  sports betting involves doing real time analysis of the teams involved in the game and not just being to guessy or random with your predictions. Every team that's involved in iether EPL or champions league and all the major leagues out thier don't just play because they want to be part of the tournament. They play basically to win and bigger clubs will always put in effort to win smaller ones and that's why doing a random bet in favour of smaller teams would in most cases not end well.

I'm not the one participating in the match to be confident about it. Yes, there are times that I'm confident that I'm going to win, which is based on factors such as how well a team has been performing or how "fair" the match appears to be. Still, that doesn't mean much; there are times I was certain, but I lost. Even if the odds were in my favor, it's not something you can predict, as these things can easily change in the blink of an eye. In my opinion, confidence can work counterintuitively in gambling, leading to more and larger bets that may eventually lead to greater losses.

It's safe to claim that gambling is mostly about luck and probabilities; although sport betting involves other parameters as well, we have to face the fact that they cannot always be on our side, nor can we speculate on the outcome.

It means you have a bad analysis and prediction, but gladly you can take advantage over it, so you're bet against of your prediction which mean it will increase the chance your bet would be right.

In my case, yeah when I'm confident with my picks, the result are mostly win. But, it doesn't mean I make a lot money, I won when the odds are low, but I lose when the odds are high. Not to mention casino usually charge additional fees or bad conversion rate which will take your money if you only win small.

when I make certain bets I am always sure of the result I am going to get.
because I play specific events, with a short timeframe, live...

example in tennis, a player should falls and breaks his arm or it is practically impossible for me to make a mistake in betting on a certain point or set.

the risk of losing is part of the "business". It's pointless to think that you can ALWAYS place infallible bets... there is alwyas the risk.

Of course I get a good result but with low income (maybe @1.10 up to @1.40)

The goal here is to profit. So if betting against your pick would be a working strategy for you then so be it. If there's a good result, why not? For me it doesn't matter if you're not using your own pick as long as your choice has a more chance to win. It's not about confidence because that doesn't guarantee a sure win. Gambling is still a game of luck regardless of what games you play. Therefore, everything is uncertain.

Being confident in your belief doesn't guarantee a win, anything can happen in games and bettings, and that is why we cannot base the success or win of any bettor on expertise alone but on luck as well. And whether the chance is so high or not, you may still lose a match, that is why no one should even think of the perfect selection in gambling that will warrant unnecessary confidence. You can now vary this with your reverse strategy, you will realise that it is still the same thing, do not ever think a certain strategy/pattern will save you completely, it might have just done you good that time, but what about next time? If I may ask you as well, how many times have you tried this reverse strategy and how many months have you tried it at the same time? These are part of what you will need to test to ascertain the credibility of it. And if, at all, it starts earning for you consistently (which I think will not happen), then you should know that your main strategy is not good in the first place, if not, it should still be delivering good winnings to you, and I mean at least 75% winning.

Sports betting is the easiest and safest betting aspect of gambling and if anyone cannot get it right through it, such a person may not be able to get it right with anything gambling ever.  Still, just for a piece of advice, should in case this reverse strategy fails you and your main strategy is not working as well, you may turn to straight winning or losing matches with a reasonable odd attached to it. It is the simplest betting strategy in sports betting, and once you know the information of the teams that would bet, the rest is a natural workover for everyone. However, combining games like many greedy gamblers do is an issue here, and the more you combine games, the less the possibility that you win that ticket.

Good luck and I hope to read about your progress again!

This gave me a really good laugh . You are one luck guy. How many times did you try it? And how has it been working for you so far. Was it a one-off thing? I want to know. Please come back and answer me.

I mean, this is a very crazy thing to do, and I could do crazy once in a while are long as it is within the boundaries of what I can afford to lose. I know it is not going to work but I'll try it anyways. Betting against my own picks is mad, I wonder how I would feel if lost. I could do it like this, I will bet against my own picks, and then also bet on own picks.

I never thought like that because when placing a bet, I trying to analyze each teams or players and pick the teams. Although that can not always gives me winning but I don't thinks as you thinks. Perhaps I will try it later to see if that also works for me and if that is works, hmm that will surprising me because that can helps me to win. Yeah, perhaps that will not makes me comfortable because I use a different ways to place my bets but if that can works, I will use it. So far, I am not too often wins in sports betting because I know that I do not have enough knowledge to knowing each team.

From what you said, I think there is a bit of emotions attached to your selections, it might be fan factor or rival factor which reduces your possibility of winning most of your bet. Confident betting should be based on team's current performance, comparing their stats in the season against their opponent but yet doesn't still assure us of winning the bet. Betting against our own picks might be an awful way to make selections, just imagine giving one of the relegated premier league club a straight win against Manchester city, it is more likely to favor City than any of them despite their is a bit possibility of City losing to any of them. We bet on the ones with the highest percentage of winning other than against it.

That's right, gambling is a game of chance, even though we are confident in our choices, whether it's a high betting amount or something else, that doesn't change the portion of our own luck. I once felt that I was sure that I could win and indeed the result was that I could win, but of course it wasn't because of anything, but because luck was on our side. What you say is true, even though we are doubtful or unsure, if luck is on our side then victory can happen, and after that control in the future is ours alone.

Remembering that sports betting can sometimes lead to skill, but I think luck still plays a role, but maybe not as much as other gambling games which only depend on luck. because indeed all games that are said to be gambling are closely related to luck. What we have to pay attention to is that we don't force ourselves by continuing to play to chase luck because that is not the right action. luck will come by itself.

Absolutely right. Nothing is permanent. If you manage to do the same thing several times, one day it will fail. Going ahead without making any decisions to change is tantamount to making the same mistake over and over again. Gambling cannot be patterned. Here, you need to take risks and make decisions that, from the outside, seem rash, but that’s what games are for to catch your luck and take risks every time.

Confidence and luck are not the same, many confidence on a game or sure bets still leads to losses, I don't want to choose a side, I would rather gamble with what I can afford to lose and enjoy the game instead, confidence in gambling is like you saying that you can see the air.

I know a brother who is into sports betting, he kept losing for a long period of time and is life changed after he choose basketball and abandoned football bets, I don't know how he pulled this off but man, this basketball games is very good to him, as if this was where he was supposed to be right from the beginning.

It is not a must to keep putting your head into football, you can try other sports just to see what happen, in your own case you want to win but in my own case I won't mind losing $5 on a game every week, like I make over 100s over dollars per week anyway, when the time is right luck will come looking for me.

The thing about betting, especially sports betting, is that I bet on what matches I will bet on. Before I bet, I make sure that I will review who's team or players will be playing, and next I will do analysis, looking at the stats of each team or player. So, for example, look at the stats of each team or player. So, for example, in an NBA match, will I really like to bet? Before I decide which team I will bet on, I will view the standings of the team and their conditions. In short, I will do my own analysis first. I'm not a bettor who will bet just because I feel like betting on this team. No, I want to become rational and do my primary analysis so that I will have a better chance of winning the bet. So for those who like to bet, be rational and think before you bet on a team or player.

It happens sometimes that you get tired of losing and frustrated that you try out many options and this seem like one but it is not profitable all the time. If you get a right prediction and bet on it, it will fail.





Some gamblers also lost hope in their analysis and started betting against it and after winning few times, they started getting their analysis right and when they bet against it they started losing. You understand what that means?


It means you have not been getting your analysis right which is why you bet against it and get it correct. Check this then, what will make you bet wrongly and win? You can only bet rightly for you to win.

Confident will not affect your luck, but since it is related to sports, it depends on where your confidence come from. Is the confidence come because you have good analysis/researches or is the confidence come from your own feeling only? Other thing is back to luck because sometime luck also take a big part in sports betting. There can be something really unexpected happens many times in sports, even we can lose some bets with so low odds.

If your analysis always ends in losses and when you bet against your own analysis and actually win, then that means there is something wrong with your analysis and you should try to find out why that happened. Because when you keep trying to bet against your own analysis, that means you are constantly trying to fight your own beliefs. Over time it will lead to your lack of confidence in betting and that will cause other problems. So personally, I would rather bet according to what I believe, that even if I lose, at least I lose by believing in myself.

I will say yes but people will have different experiences about this. I prefer to bet with high amount of money before and I did lost almost all the time and my losses were far more than my profits. But I later prefer to bet with small amount of money and the confidence increased because if I lose, it is just small amount of money. But I noticed that my strategy changed and I win than lose. But I do not care if I lose than win because gambling is not a way I am looking for money anymore.

There's no problem with that strategy if you don't invest emotion in gambling. But the thing is, we gamble in the first place because we are having fun, and profit is just secondary. You know, there's no challenge in gambling if we are not having fun, so the best fulfillment as a gambler is when you are having fun and being profitable at the same time.

You can bet against yourself but learn to enjoy it in the long run, because if not, you are just gambling with no sense, it's just all about the greed of money, just like working in a company, you make money but you don't love your job, how would you feel?

I've done that a few times because i'd sometimes have a terrible record in certain sports, and during those times it only made me lose more bets. I'd rather endure these losses than fade my bets again as I could miss the timing for my luck to turn the other way around.

However, I do use that strategy against the bettors that I follow and are consistent at choosing the losing teams based on their profit or record.

Sometimes, when the results of your analysis do not align with your expectations, it might be a smart move to change your perspective by fading yourself. We often find that trusting our intuition in betting can lead us astray, particularly if we are not being objective in our assessments.

I find your trial of jotting down your picks and afterward betting against them rather intriguing, and it appears to have worked out well for you. It serves as an indication that at times, looking at things from a different angle can help break free from habits or distorted perceptions.

I haven't personally tried this approach, but your recount piques my interest in its utility for breaking free from a losing streak's grip. The concept underscores the significance of adaptability and willingness to experiment with new tactics in the realm of betting. However, betting against our own selections can pose a mental challenge, and it might feel discordant to ever move away from our intuitive leanings. Unsettling as those sensations may be, if this alternative route leads to greater benefits, perhaps it warrants deliberation.