Topic: When you are confident with your picks, do you win most of the time? - page 4. (Read 787 times)

Didn't really go down and checked if I'm statistically winning when I make predictions/am confident with my picks but I can see how this could affect the chances of me winning games.

When you make confident/educated assumptions you already set yourself for success since it almost always means you have prepared yourself for the game, perhaps you may have gotten some light reading that goes towards knowing more about the team or whatever, but shit hits the fan, you're more informed/educated and more confident making those picks.

Confidence in itself doesn't really bring that much to the table especially if you're confidence for the sake of it and not because you have got something to be confident for, betting isn't something you can just "fake until you make it" since there's a real chance of you losing more than you winning, and that isn't for you to decide either.

Sometimes I also do this kind of strategy, I will go on the opposite on what I thought to be betting and surprisingly, it's also good for me. I don't know if it has something to do with luck, but when I'm on a losing skid on my bets, it's either I will stop, or uses this strategy.

Although, it's not almost very effective and if your first choice hits, it's going to be very hard mentally to see it as you have to blame yourself for going against your initial bet. Nevertheless, this is what gambling is isn't it, we really don't know what the outcome in sports betting, still 50/50, and this what makes it more exciting.

Honestly when it comes to gambling for me, or being cocky just in general, when I'm overly confident I tend to always lose. Whether I'm gambling or just talking smack to a friend about a game or whatever.  It's very strange but when I'm overly confident I tend to lose.  So when I place bets, I always go in with the attitude that I'm going to lose.  I know it's total nonsense and all in my head, but things work out better this way. lol.

I do not gamble based on how confident I am with my pick but gamble based on statistics from how the teams has been playing when I am gambling by sport betting. Our minds can play tricks on us and make you to think we have the right pick but after the games are over, we do not win any games. Playing sport betting should not be done with emotions or we would not win. If you know a team is better than the other team they are going to be the favourite to pick and you would not lose. Only on very rare occasions that you will lose but if you have been winning before now the lost would not bother you that much because you will still be in net profits because of the other wins that you have been getting. Sport betting is easy to win when you know your statistics very well that you do not go wrong with your picks.

We have different perspectives when it comes to the space. Our outcome ought to be presentable and straight because we will always push for positive results. We're all on different levels, understanding what it feels to make huge profits and also losing huge figures. Confident is the one thing that will always make one become promising with system, there's always more to acknowledge and observed in the system, perhaps standing down will do make good solving.

it's actually a good strategy - depending on the games you selected, and also, for which team/division your picks were based on... Assuming you selected some games from the Scottish premiership and your options were home/away to win depending on their advantage and positions on the table; say, the smallest points was 1.79 against 12 odds, how do you reverse your analysis for a possible win? Wagering on 12 odds against 1.79? Where's the win possibility?

You don't really have to do much of an analysis to win... What you experienced was luck and it doesn't really mean it'd happen all the time.

You can't really guarantee that each bet you have, even if you are very confident about it, will win. Because of so many underlying factors such as the the athletes themselves, coach, their current strategies, unknown injuries among others. Aside from your instincts, those factors are significant in the potential outcome of the game. Hence, you can't really assure yourself of winning because it is not only your assessment which is in play but all the other factors, and add luck also in the equation.

Confidence is part of the reason for victory and defeat, depending on the situation it will give different results.

imo, betting is always simple and doesn't put too much emphasis on the results right away because I'm just a recreational player so even if I lose, I still feel an interesting feeling with that bet.

But I also went through some situations where I really had confidence in myself to choose the correct outcome, but I still understood it would only give me an ego boost, but I admit in that situation I won but there were also times I lost because of it. So the results are based on confidence, so confidence should be re-evaluated according to how we understand it, because I think confidence has many different levels based on each person's perspective.

Will I say your strategy is really effective, or should I say you are just lucky for now. It might not really last for you. How are you going to do your analysis, then you will decide to place a bet opposite your analysis, it’s not really a good idea to me. If you know you will be going against your analysis, then why stress yourself out doing analysis? To save yourself from that kind of stress, you should just pick randomly and place your bet. You have to be careful because time might come when you will start losing money unnecessarily. Make sure you always control yourself when gambling.

If my picks aren’t hitting, then I will just check what’s wrong, maybe during that period, I will have to gamble less. When gambling, there is always a period when you are going to be winning frequently, and time will come when you will be losing, so just because I am losing doesn’t mean I will start placing bets against my analysis.

It is not working all the time but when you have that good guts and believe that you picked the right team to bet, then most of the time you’ll hit a win. I bet with confidence though I don’t always win but still I make effort to have a good bet and always be responsible for that bet, luck will still be there in betting and if you’re feeling it, then take the risk without regrets.

Bro, in contrast to your opinion, I found it more hilarious and odd at the same time, something that will not see the light of day. For the fact that the OP is happy now due to the luck he had in the first pick does not mean that this is a good idea. Unless the initial strategy of the gambler is bad from the onset, that is how this kind of strategy can be practicable. You might have a very strong trading strategy with a 75% winning, which means that your probability of losing is also 25%. Regardless, if you are a good manager of your gambling and its portfolio, it will be easy for you to work with the 75% winning and manage your way to success even as you use the opportunity to override the possibility of losing which is 25%.

By that, it is not that you will not be losing at times but you have limited the impact in your betting, and in the long run, you would have an above-average high success since the 75% chance of winning is greater than the 25% chance of losing. Now, think it this way, the possibility of losing is 25%, the time that the OP won in his narration might merely be the time of the 25% of losing possibility. But for the fact that it better it in the opposite of his startegy, he now won it. But what about the higher chance (75%) of winning with the same strategy? What happens has he now turns to 75% of losing due to his propose opposite strategy? I think this strategy will never last long regardless of what anyone tells me, unless he had a bad strategy initially.

No matter how good a gambler's analysis is, if he cannot win, he will not consider his analysis correct. But in reality even if the analysis is correct, he could not win because he had no luck. Gambling may or may not win but don't depend too much on it. When it is not taken seriously, losing there will have no effect. We should remember that we will never have a guaranteed win in gambling. In my gambling career I was not sure about certain bets but was confident and managed to win about 60-70 percent of those bets. But i cannot be confident in all bets.

That's why people should not thinks to makes money from gambling as they will only gets more lose. Even if they feels confident with their picks, they don't have to be serious in gambling because the outcomes can't always the same as what they wants. Many times the outcomes changes in the end of the match so they must realizes that they only use gambling to have fun. We can still analyze the match but we must realizes our chance will still 50/50 because it's gambling where no certain results for us. If you can use gambling for fun, you will not thinks much about playing gambling because you always aware that gambling is not a place for makes money. You will only use some money to playing gambling moderately because you wants to avoids many problems that can occurs in gambling.

When placing gambling bets , most of the time the gambler often measures  his level of confidence based on how much he is able to analyze the bet based on some factors like his. Level of experience and even his calculative ability based on that game relative to how much luck he hopes to have on his side to be able to ace the bet. However sometimes analysis could go wrong and even in a confident state, the gambler can also lose the bet.
This is one of the main reasons why gambling is often referred as a game of luck. This is mainly because even when gamblers are able to input their calculative and perspective ability they still depend on some level of luck to be able to make gambling wins. Even if the level of luck isn't same as well as huge for all games it is still an important factor.

Gambling is never won with confidence but our guesses are often correct with long experience of gambling. But if you gamble with confidence, you can surely win, I have not seen it happen in anyone's case. But sometimes we can bet with confidence for sports because sometimes when a strong team plays against a weak team it is very easy to predict which team will win. then it is possible to win by betting with confidence  But this is not always the case. so we have to accept gambling risk and loss there.

I agree with what you said, that indeed confidence in choices when gambling and winning often does hinge on the nature of the bet. Whether it entails an aggregation of matches or a singular match, it truly varies. However, numerous gamblers voice discontent towards opting for familiar betting options not always panning out. Take for instance forecasting a triumphant team's continued success based on their winning streak: it often backfires. The day you place blind faith in their victory might turn out to be the day luck eludes them, ending their winning run with an unexpected draw or loss. The situation can sometimes be likened to walking on thin ice while confidently expecting solid ground beneath your feet.

Gambling is based on chance, so it makes no difference if you pick familiar options or not. If luck is on your side and you happen to choose right, you win. But always bear in mind: when it comes to gambling, there are no certainties; the result of an event often defies prognostication with any degree of assurance. Even though you may be sure about your decision and feel confident, remember that risk is always part of it, regardless of how good your choice might seem to be at first glance.

It depends on the type of bet you choose to play like if it involves accumulated matches or just a single match but most gamblers do complain that picking familiar options for a bet doesn't work most of the time like for instance predicting a team that is on winning streak to keep winning doesn't go as predicted because the day you will choose them to win with confidence that they have always been winning is the day they will either lose or draw but since gambling is more of luck it does not matter if you use familiar options for an event but if you are just lucky to pick correctly you can win.

Having too much confidence in gambling can even make you to lose the more, just be positive and also understand that gambling is unpredictable.  Play with amount you can afford to lose , when you are so confidence in gambling it can make you to take much risk which you can play with a reasonable amount of money or to play with money which you are not supposed in playing gambling.

  Winning gambling is not by having confidence but good understanding.  Understanding is everything in gambling,  with it you can be able to manage your lose. Having confidence on something that you can't predict to tell what will be the result of the game is not a good strategy in winning gambling. Playing with amount that you can afford to lose in gambling is even a big win than Playing with so much confidence that can lead one Playing with a big amount.

I'm usually confident with my picks. If I'm not I prefer to wait and not bet any money, therefore I can't tell you how I'm doing betting money on picks I'm confident with vs the ones I'm not.
That said, I'm about 55% maybe 60% in profit. I often lose, but overall I win more than I lose. This can be seen as something good and bad at the same time, because as I said, I'm confident all the time, but almost half of these confident picks are lost. Tough life, I guess

I do feel comfortable when I saw my picks nearly hit the target, but it doesn't give me frustrations when failing if I just can afford what I'm going to lose in a certain bets. Honestly, learning to accept any negative consequences isn't easy to handle in times of struggles, what's important is you should keep the mindset of entertainment instead of being so serious with gambling. Self confidence unto something, will result in positive outcome no matter what happens.