Topic: When you are confident with your picks, do you win most of the time? - page 2. (Read 800 times)

I’ve been really confident about my picks many times and still lost. We can’t control sporting results even if we pick the favourites to win.

Obviously though it’s natural to feel more confident about winning a bet when you really believe it’s going to win, usually the type of bet that I feel really confident about is with lower odds naturally.

More luck and fewer strategies - that is what I see in gambling. For several years I've been gambling and no matter how hard I tried to analyze the situation and apply the strategies I've learned, luck really our ticket to winning. That is because situations never always happen the same in the past and if it ever comes, we still don't know when making us think that it is useless to keep using this way so we try another and still fail.
That is why I gamble without expecting I'm going to win instead, I just think I enjoyed what I'm doing at least it was not too hurt. 

Sorry to hear that mate and hope you will find refuge from this thread as there are many of us that can
relate about your issue and problem and sometimes experimental is not that helpful at all because we may
fall from each traps in gambling.

not sure if i can support that betting opposite of my analysis because this proves me to be not
good in gambling ?  what I do always is that to  focus in the team/player that i believe and to enjoy
my betting together with my love teams.

Yes exactly, I support your idea that not all types of games can be done by applying strategy, or I mean there are some types of games that are completely dependent on luck as you said one of them is roulette dice and maybe I will add another one that is like a slot game, the reason is clear that there are no statistics or history that we can use as analysis material to draw conclusions that lead to decision making, because this is a random game that cannot be analyzed at all.

In contrast to sports betting as you mentioned where we can make the performance of our favorite team as a benchmark to compare it with the strength of the opposing team at that time, you can apply strategies by looking at various sides to produce decisions that are believed to increase the chances of winning, but in the end it is clear that luck is still an important aspect in this bet and actually for all types of games luck will always be the most important aspect to confirm victory. Because obviously the logic in any type of game if it is still a betting activity then obviously the possibility of loss will be a part or will always be a definite possibility that will occur, meaning that the strategy is nothing more than something that is only useful to increase the chances of winning but does not guarantee that you will win at the end of the session, and for sports betting this is a combination of strategy and luck.

Everyone can and is ready to receive luck through gambling because it doesn't always come to the same person in any type of gambling. But what all gamblers must be more prepared to accept is defeat, because this definitely comes more often in any type of gambling. And if there is a gambler who is only ready to accept luck, I think that person is not a gambler and does not deserve to be in gambling because he does not understand how to enjoy real gambling.

There is no winning in gambling unless luck favors it. But if there is strategy then we can be ahead to win. But in some games luck plays a role entirely. For example, there are various games like dice roulette where there is no opportunity to apply strategy. And if one does sports betting then there are chances of winning if good research and strategy are applied. Although it is not possible to provide hundred percent assurance in that case. Again in the case of sports betting, we are often fatally confident about any bet. Even if you grow overconfident, there is a chance of loss. It is good to be confident to win but it must be kept within limitations.

It seems to me that this is the way of understanding. Your situation is very familiar to me, this has happened to me more than once.
Only once did this happen in trading, when I realized that I did not understand where the price would go next, and recently in batting, when I began to bet on random matches, having the desire to simply lose the bonus limit.
Somehow, after the games, I also thought that I should put everything the other way around.
But it's not logical. It's like playing against your logic, and this approach is like betraying yourself.

That's true, there's no guarantee even if we're confident enough in our own pick because if luck doesn't favor us, it will ended up losing out bets. There's an instances that having much confidence in our bet will gives us disappointment in the end because we're hoping to win, but like what everyone say's. gambling is all about losing and winning, it depends to us when is our lucky day. 

Yes I do win most of the time, in as much as being confidence is not enough  for any one to win but it is always good to have certain believe over what we consider to have possibilities, being confident puts you in the position of making an informed decisions in terms of making your best picks and your staking power, but however, we  do feel so much disappointed on seeing that what we presumed to have confident about didn't go the way we expected. nevertheless, it is just a game that has zero percent guarantee over getting expected outcome. What we do is just to clear our conscience by picking what we feel is the best and wait for what will be the outcome of it, gambling with only the amount that you can afford to lose is what will put you in a better emotional condition when the outcome of your picks  didn't come to your favor.

Yeah confidence does not guarantee a favorable winning as it always depends on your luck in a particular bet you have placed. I know we all experience this kind of thing where at some point we are confident enough but it always turn against our luck and I consider this thing as normal in the gambling industry.

Its a myth, a gamble fallacy and many people still gamble with that way, especially for those who gamble on sports every day.
They believe that they will win more often by betting against their own predictions after experiencing a losing streak based on their own analysis and predictions.

Maybe you are not familiar with the game, because there are some games you will bet with a huge amount of money, you will have the confidence of winning which i have experienced such thing from my gambling.

I guess we have some gamblers like you, who use the same partner with you and they are enjoying their gambling because they bet base on they are not expecting anything from betting and they will win something or lose something which they cannot guarantee their winning.

Despite gambling is a luck, but is still require knowledge to make your winning higher than losing because there are some bet you will play base on your gambling experience, it will come to pass but it will not give you exactly the amount of money you targeted for the game.

One of the most important factor in sport betting is following our own personal rules, not jeopardizing it for anything. Confidence in gambling has to be whatever outcome I accept be it win or loss. Once we can shape our minds this way, we would be okay either in a winning or Lossing situation, because nothing is guaranteed.

You just place your bet, and ensure you stake the amount you are willing to lose and relax for whatever outcome.

Over confidence is bad when you are gambling, because it can lead you to big loss. This is why when gambling don't be confidence but just have it in your mind that a loss is also part of the game, and don't believe that you will win the game. If you do, you might end up losing. I have seen a gambler that thinks it is by his skills and forgets that gambling is based on luck and he bet all his bankroll because he felt that he has known the trick of winning.

When he lost it all that was when he came to me that he was stupid to have confidence in that trick just because it worked for him yesterday, he never knew that it was his luck that made him win those bets he won the previous day. When you gamble for fun, you will not have any confidence because you want to entertain yourself, you just do your picks and whatever is the outcome, you are cool with it.

Well, to be profitable in gambling and betting is not an ordinary thing. Only a few people are always lucky in gambling and many will just face the hard luck with gambling. Even if one is confident with his predictions does not mean that he will be able to win the bets. Many times, he will just lose the game and bet, because upsets so happen in gambling.


As far as betting is concerned, you would not depend on a single strategy when placing the bets. Some people always place the bet on the low odd team as these are bets which are more likely to be won but the odds are low. Some people will risk less money but will place the bets on higher odds. The chances of losing such bets are more but if you win such bets it will be of higher profitability. It depends on how one would like to bet and the betting strategy varies from person to person.

I mean if you are confident then there's nothing stopping you from getting that win but since there are many things that could determin the outcome of your picks you shouldn't get your hopes too high otherwise when thing goes wrong you will feel immense regret.
remember having confidence in your pick doesn't mean somehow the universe will favour you and what ever you pick suddenly gonna be the best pick in this world.
you should realize that in some platform the odds are adjusted so that it has 50:50 chance.

so honestly even with confident, if the pick is shit then its shit, there's no excuse at all, like in football, the biggest club can get rekt by the smaller club.
its just how it works, sometime things turns out as expected, or not at all.
overall, its just depends on your luck, thats why its called speculation in the first place, you can make prediction, but the outcome doesn't necessarily align with your prediction.

Honestly speaking having confident with my picks, doesn't favour me that much, but when I just pick without putting or having any confident am going to win , most time I always endup winning and it will just look like a joke .

But still that doesn't change anything tho, being confident or not one is still going to lose , because gambling is mainly all about luck, so there's possibility of one going to loss or wins , is just depend on one luck that moment.

Confidence in betting should always be present. Take that away, and you’ll never have fun in sports betting anymore. When we are confident, it's a sign that we understand what we are doing and believe our strategy will bring us wins. You can bet against yourself if you think you lose most of the time with your strategy, but for how long? You might win temporarily, but your strategy might not be sustainable in the long term. The only strategy that will make you profitable in the long run is one that you can develop over time.

This is gambling, where bookies are very clever, so we should be the same. Make adjustments when the strategy is not working so we can still end up profitable in the end.

No.

Even I can say that I am following the news in the esports which is also another form of sportsbetting. Despite that I am confident with my picks, you will never know what can happen in-game.

This is the same for the other traditional sports too, some injuries can come and key players won't be able to play.

That's the same in esports although in other form as in in-game, come backs as we call it when the team you bet is about to lose but then they start to regain better plays and gradually wins the game.

Well, my advice in matters like this have always been that, what ever we do and find rewarding in gambling, then keep doing it, after all, it's all about having fun, and we all know that there is no fun in constantly losing money all the time.

I personally, based on my own experiences have stopped being confident in my picks, because just like you, I most of the time end up losing even when I am most confident for a win, this usually breaks my heart and spirit, that is, you know how it feels to trust and have confidence in yourself over something, only to at the end of the day, realize that you were completely wrong about that thing, most especially when there are people who actually believed in you with their bets, it can make a person feel like a complete failure some times.

So, to avoid such feeling, I've stopped believing in my own picks, and this has always made be feel better in times when it turned out I was wrong, since it's something I've predicted will happen.