Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 104. (Read 808918 times)

He will say gen 2 is moving along.  Dividends being retained for R&D.  There will be no precise dates or figures.  Only generalities.  What is that really worth?

Yes, but we're setting records for the least communication just as the most things to communicate about should be happening.

He has released big updates around the 22-23rd of the month a couple times. It will speak clearly of the state of things if he does not.

I don't think FC cares about the share price. He cares about performance of the company.

I strongly suspect FC will make an announcement before then. If a poor Wednesday dividend comes and goes with no news, 1.5 would seem a generous backstop.

Traded as low as 1.65 today.  This is going to under 1.5 with a bad dividend next wednesday

The main AM thread is going, well... enough off topic lately. So I ask here: what the hell is going on with activemining?
Anybody who is following closely the story could summarize the latest news?? Thanks!

activemining?

There is no win with you, is it? (jk)

If it reaches fair value territory you should expect me to say that it's fairly valued, not disappear.

I hope the share price drops to 1.2. Then a) we won't hear from Vycid anymore and b) I can buy cheap shares.

Here:

originally there were planned four batches (12TH/s, 50TH/s, 200TH/s, 1000TH/s). All first gen (130nm).

We are currently in deployment of the third (hashing + franchise + sold). Maybe there was change of plans, so that the fourth batch will be second gen, but I doubt it. Second gen is planned on november/december earliest - probably gonna be delayed.

Very precise number! Do you have a source for this?

There are 262 TH/s are ordered/ delivered so far. And i hope the remaining ~750 TH/s are gen2. Because i never read which gen the remaining is.

Thanks Rival for the thoughts.
Do we know if the "batches" that were announced (200 and then 1000TH) were supposed to be gen1 or was the technology not mentioned?
If they were supposed to be gen1, that would contradict the cristal ball plan, which I love btw.

+1

I think the most germane concern should be the arrival of gen2 hardware.  As we have been told in the past (so far borne out by results) that the cost to AM for hardware is "Invincible", at least for products you can order and have hashing in a few days time. The question to ask oneself is whether this pricing invincibility will extend to gen2. It is not unlikely to assume that with the bankroll and experience that FC can order bulk levels of chips and other components in much higher numbers than most competitors, potentially in the tens of millions. On it's face, it would appear that FC can probably out-produce and outprice the competition for gen2 devices, and bring them to market in a timely manner.

It was not so long ago that FC actually held back hashing power because his share of the network hash was growing too large. Part of the strategy for hardware sales was to profit from blades he could not bring online without endangering the 50%+1 line. Currently, he seems more focused on eliminating gen1 blades that were ordered in anticipation of being needed due to anticipation of growth in global hash. That growth fell below his projections, so all new gen1 blades must go!

As FC transitions to gen2, I would expect quiet replacement of gen1 boards in his farm with gen2. This may actually be occurring right now. I expect the AM farm will be converted to gen2 and the original gen1 farm boards retasked to franchisees. Once this process is completed, the AM hash should stabilize at the 10%-15% we expect, with additional income from the franchised gen1 boards. Only then will the announcement come that gen2 boards are completed and available for sale. Additional boards will continue to be fabricated, meeting both AM hash requirements and customer purchases until the Gen3 designs are completed. Rinse, repeat.

If I am correct, we should soon see AM hash rise, drop, rise, drop, and then finally a slow but steady increase in AM hash up to around 15%. This should be the indicator that gen2 is deployed and gen2 blades will soon be available.

Let's see it my crystal ball if full of sparkles or full of crap. Time will tell.

cheap shares @ 1.65

kaching!

its all a scam, sell it all