Topic: No petrol/diesel car sales by 2035/ Reality or dream? - page 23. (Read 3566 times)

Regardless of the positive impact reliable public transportation systems can have on the environment and on the life of people, we cannot forget that those systems and vessels are very expensive and not all countries will be initially able to buy them and maintain them properly. That is why you can talk about Japan or Europe while referencing their railroads and buses, but the context is very different in South America and Africa, for example.

Perhaps, some rich countries would be interested in giving some low interest loans for it, since working together against global warming has some emphasis in Europe and America.

car prices wont come down much.

however
a. inflation will make car prices seem reasonable value
~4%-5% inflation a year for 12 years is the same as "50% discount" of value
EG a $40k car now. and a $40k car in 12 years will feel like
buying 30,000 loaves of bread now vs 15,000 loaves of bread in 12 years
equivalent of a 3 year degree now vs 18 month diploma in 12 years
3 years of middleclass rent vs 18months of middleclass rent

b. most local/regional governments are also investing in small/public transport
such as making cycles paths and public commuter buses, driverless taxis so that those that cannot afford electric cars can still get around reasonably cheap using a electric bike. scooter, bus or taxi whereby the bus or taxi will be low cost due to lack of driver labour costs

c. most cars life cycle are 32 years* so the cars bought 2003 years ago wont exist in the 2035
so they do not need to cater to demand now to reach goal for 2035. they just need to grow now to cater to demand of 2035+
*EG if average cars produced a year in the US is 9mill and there are 290m cars
that means a cars life cycle is 32years

they dont need to be making 9m EV cars now per year
but over next 12 years get upto that 9m-10m production mark

d. expanding on (c) point fuel cars will still be around and gas/fuel stations will still be around in 2050-60.. they just wont be producing fuel based cars from 2035

European countries made a tough decision and took quick action in this regard. I expect such a decision to come, now officially approved. I think it will take a long time for countries with no charging infrastructure or financial means to pass, maybe they will still continue to use gasoline/diesel vehicles. I do not know what action can be taken in this regard, as a result, the whole world is affected by the gases produced by gasoline and diesel vehicles.

It is very difficult to predict future with accuracy but it is becoming increasing likely that petrol/diesel cars sales will be phased out in many parts of the world. United Kingdom has already set target to ban sales of new petrol/diesel cars from 2030, and Canada wants to follow suit by 2035.It is also important to note that many major car manufacturers are making heavy investments in Electric Vehicles (EV) which suggests that they are preparing for future with no or little demand for petrol/diesel cars.The cost of running electric cars is also becoming lower compared to petrol/diesel cars, though its purchase price is higher, but with the technological advancement, it is likely to come down in future.

Taking all these factors into consideration, it is reasonable to expect that goal of phasing out petrol/diesel cars will be achieved by 2035.

Yes this is possible, as what I am seeing right now day by day technology is being used now in many cases in many ways , it is truly a fast paced indeed. Sooner or later most of the jobs now are being run by AI , ML . For example in some factory, many people will be laid off and it will be replace by robots, soon many car companies will offer their unique version of self driving cars and such. Diesel fueled car will no longer available in the market.

I think this goal can be achieved in 12 years. In recent years, the car manufacturers have been able to prepare for this law to come at some point and I think they have been preparing for it for a long time and are taking all the necessary measures. The development of new electric cars will certainly be pushed ahead in the next few years and who can say how effective they will be in 2035. Certainly better than today.

But until all the old petrol and diesel vehicles are gone from the streets, it will probably take another 10-20 years, I would guess. Unless there will be a law against the use of such vehicles, which I don't think there will be. But if this doesn't happen quickly enough, I can imagine that use will be restricted more and more and people will voluntarily switch to an electric car. This will certainly avoid that there will be a general ban. 

The concept that all gasoline and diesel vehicles will be banned by 2035 makes me chuckle. It's a worthy aim, but I'm not sure how realistic it is. Buyers may have a hard time making the transition to electric automobiles despite the fact that they are more expensive than conventional vehicles. When I consider how much energy is expended in the mines to produce the metals used to construct electric automobiles, I have to wonder if they are truly sustainable. Who can predict what kind of cutting-edge technologies will be introduced in the coming decade? Only time will tell if this strategy was successful. But I'm going to keep driving my trusty gas-powered automobile for the time being and cross my fingers

Countries like Norway or Sweden are exceptions if we consider other parts of Europe, because they have long since overcome some basic obstacles and due to their natural resources and high standard of living, they can afford to reach some goals much earlier than everyone else. Some data say that in Denmark even 70% of people use bicycles or public transport, and they are not even interested in the state's generous incentives when it comes to buying electric vehicles.

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Another important point that we may not have mentioned is that the ban on production vehicles with internal combustion does not mean that everyone will suddenly switch to electric vehicles or some other alternative - all those who own old vehicles should continue to use them as long as they want to - or until the government decided to close all gas stations.

Incase you need it here is an article about it Source though there are also cons of it they said but I think this cant be stopped right now as we really need this materials in the future. It wouldn't be permanent but our ocean is I think 70% right so it is huge than our land masses so probably it will take more time that we will going to shortage on this but the biggest problem right now is how it contributes to environment as for sure we are affected on it.

I would love to have that time when most public transportation are reliable just like in Japan and other rich countries. Because I can see that many countries are car eccentric and that's why public transportation is like an option for those that can't afford.

I didn't know and never heard of it.

If there's a way to mine for those mineral for creating batteries then that's good but, I'd say that it won't be permanent and there will still be a shortage once the demand increases for EVs.

I don't know if you heard this, but there is a new trend of mining right now under the ocean, where they will get tons of minerals and also use them for creating batteries. A lot of companies are racing on this to first make their own machines to extract those minerals, and it is also supported by governments as it is way less destructive than the actual mining we have right now, which destroys forests. Their main purpose also on this is getting ready for the demand for making EV vehicles in the future.

There is nothing fantastic about this idea. In Norway, for example, now 4 out of 5 cars sold are electric cars. And from 2025 they plan to completely stop selling private cars with internal combustion engines. The question is not "pushing through some green programs", the question is that fossil deposits are not unlimited, but in addition to ICE, oil has its own markets - this is the chemical industry, and for the time being oil is definitely indispensable there. And transport is quietly migrating either to hybrid solutions (transitional period) or then to fully electric ones. Especially since today, in the United States, a working controlled thermonuclear fusion has been experimentally obtained, which in the future will make it possible to obtain a huge amount of cheap energy without environmental pollution. Now they are just hysterical and throw fakes like "you can't live without oil", countries that are technologically backward and are raw material appendages of the developed world. The UAE, being the strongest supplier of oil, has been actively investing in alternative energy for 2 decades (this is tens of billions of dollars received from the sale of oil). And those who are backward - squeal "you will die without our oil." These are squeals from the authors of the touching fairy tale "Europe will freeze without our gas" )

Maybe it can be achieved in 2035 or even sooner because now, production for electric cars seems to have started to accelerate. Reducing petrol and diesel fueled vehicles is needed because there are very worrying where is a lot of pollution in every big city.

But the technology for electric cars is still being developed to reach the desired stage. There will probably be a reduction in sales of petrol and diesel vehicles while continuing to roll out electric vehicles that can accommodate that need. Maybe European countries already feel ready with the technology for electric vehicles so they make laws so that things can start right away when the time comes.

It's not too hard but the problem is there are too many limitations for the electric car especially in how long distance that can be travelled caused by it's not so many vehicles that can travel very long distances. Battercy capacity, eficientcy of vehicle will always become very big questions as you can't get cheap electric vehicles with big battery that can achieve long distance to travel.


You have formula e which already exist https://www.fiaformulae.com/en

That was fully based on electricity. I have never watched it before. I see no problem even when it was moving to the fully electricity.

That's called economy of scale. Economies of scale are when the more you produce of something, the cheaper it gets. This is because you can spread out the costs of production over a larger number of units you make.

For example, let's say you run a factory that produces bicycles. If you only produce a few bicycles, you'll have to pay for things like rent, electricity, and employee wages, but you'll be spreading those costs over a small number of bicycles. This means that the cost per bicycle will be relatively high.

If you start producing more bicycles, you can spread those same costs over a larger number of bicycles and the cost per bicycle will go down, making it cheaper for you to produce each bicycle.

With electric cars, a lot of costs go into batteries and electronics. The fewer cars you make the more expensive they are. Hope this makes sense.

Your analogy doesn't make sense, if many people start to buy electric car, the price of the car will increase because it have a high demand. What can make electric car is cheaper because there are a lot manufactures can produce a lot electric car, so they need to set an appropriate price in order to make people buy it and not looking on the other manufactures.

The @OP has been mentioned it will happen on EU, not majority of countries around the world. Even though there are few countries have a lot oil, but it wouldn't last long and they're forced to adopt electric car in the future. Those countries need to move more faster before it will cause a panic and economic problem.

This is going to be hard to execute, because the oil dependent countries will face surely experience economic downturn. In oil dependent countries the fuel expense is cheaper than using an electric vehicle. Atleast for that reason it is possible to see petrol and diesel vehicles running on those countries. The plan to eliminate petrol and diesel vehicles will be applicable for specific countries and not for all the countries.

If such scenario exists does the F1 races too have the electric vehicles that go for the battery change in pitstop between laps.

What if the actual plan is to get people used to not having their own vehicle but rather depend on public transportation?
If the prices of batteries and EV rise over the capacity of the average citizen, I bet government won't care much to reduce those prices but rather have a good enough electric buses and subways.

The law only applies for new cars, so obviously gas vehicles will slowly die due to obsolescence.

maybe in developed countries electric cars will indeed be fully used by the people in 2035. because in developed countries I am quite sure that the development of electric car infrastructure will be completed more quickly. but in developing countries I doubt it. because building infrastructure for charging electric cars also requires very high costs. and I doubt that in 2035 all developing countries and below will be able to complete the construction of electric car charging infrastructure in every corner of the country.

but in Indonesia the government seems to want to finish the electric car infrastructure more quickly, namely the plan is to finish it in 2025. And Indonesia is a developing country that has a passion for infrastructure development in all matters of technological progress, both electric cars and others.

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reference : https://bappeda kaltimprov.go.id

honestly I think it depends in the effort of building the infrastructure of electric vehicle, I'm sure all those companies don't want their distribution line to be stretched in time just because charging an EV took hours. I'm sure the bigger the vehicle the more battery it gonna needs means longer charging time, I'd say until EV becomes more efficient in terms of time it's never gonna replace fossil fueled vehicles in general.
but it's always good to have some cleaner air so if by that time the EV dominates fossil fueled car that'd become a good news.
It's just that i'm sure it's gonna took longer than that if they're not really commited in building infrastructure and maybe investing heavily in the research of increasing the efficiency and maybe finding some alternatives for its battery like graphene so that the battery tech would take some leaps in giving better alternatives.