Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 311. (Read 907212 times)

risto still feeling good about your call?

i see a problem with your trend line strategy. while i follow a support trend line, you follow an averaging trend line. the averaging trend line actually changes in slope and position as time goes on. also prices have actually gone BELOW the trend line for extended periods of time, and i think you may be ignoring that opportunity.

risto still feeling good about your call?

i see a problem with your trend line strategy. while i follow a support trend line, you follow an averaging trend line. the averaging trend line actually changes in slope and position as time goes on. also prices have actually gone BELOW the trend line for extended periods of time, and i think you may be ignoring that opportunity.

I've done some market analysis and decided that 575 is a fair price for bitcoin as of now. It is now -0.114 below the trendline. During the slump last summer, starting from the capitulation low and ending the day when daily average ATH was broken (122 days by the way), we were on average -0.251 below the trend. If we stay at this price until April 13, 2014, we will reach -0.251. This is regard as realistic. There is no need to go down, the trendline is going up and takes care that we will sink further below trendline as is predicted by the model.

I see the possibility for a further low below 400 as slim at the moment. If further flashcrashes occur, my target for the low point is 450-500.

The capitulation happened already. If you did not feel it, the reason is that here in the oldtimer threads in Bitcointalk people knew what was coming and were not afraid. Outside, people and media and newbies were, and still are, asking if Bitcoin is dead. There was blood on the streets. Don't expect that it will turn worse. It cannot. It can only go up from here.

There is no need to be hasty with purchases. Bitcoin is not going down, but neither is it going up. The trendline logistics prevent it from rising, and I would see 700 as a shorting price if I was in the intention to gamble now. In reality I just transferred the overmajority of my trading capital to cold wallets. If you want to buy now, bidding 500-550 is probably enough.

It is frivolous to think that history could exactly predict future, but because Bitcoin behaves self-similarly like a fractal, and because my past predictions based on this method have been quite amazingly correct, let's just calculate the day when ATH will be taken: June 27, 2014.

From there, it will likely take only 30 days to make a new ATH that will last several months.

Unless the Chasm interrupts the underlying, 5-year old growth paradigm in a way that nothing in Bitcoin's history has yet been able to do.

so down trend setting in for the night...... what is there to hold back the price other than 430 lvl? from a TA perspective, the 430 lvl is weak.... very little price history in that area.

Ill say again, it simply wouldn't surprise me if we pass 430.... waves often diverge like that after capitulation. the bottom needs time, and the market is timid, and the down trend remains intact.

but also looking out for the unexpected interception forming H&S bottom....

Never interrupt your enemy while he is making a mistake......

Y'know, at these levels, we rather hide from the camera. But I heard from the MC that a 17-seater Hummer Limo will be there. I personally doubt the number of seats though but he said that it was the coolest car in Estonia and especially suitable because everyone fits in.

It does'nt matter where/when one shorts,  positions reverse when the market hits the bottom, be it panic or profit taking. I suppose you are refering to stoploss orders triggering. I dont know to what degree that effects the BTC market. the larger investors would not use them is such a volatile market.

I sold at 750, and I reversed my sell position at 500 because I saw there was a risk of breaking the monthly down trend, but the bull run has stalled, and Im looking for a move to the downside. I agree with rpietila that capitulation has occured, but we should see 500 again, and it woudnt at all surprise me if we saw a lower bottom, but I will not expect it, only hope.

For that to have occurred, the said shorters would have to have shorted at something like $430? Who would have done that?

Who who shorted at $600, $550, $500, or even $450, wouldn't have taken profits and gotten out?

I was expecting/fearing an upside short squeeze, if left to Bitfinex manipulators it would have transpired. But Huobi said NO!

There will be no short squeeze for those who shorted at $590. How much scope there is for profits beneath is another matter with so many shorts looking to come out their trades which they must do by buying back into market.

Looks to me like the short trader squeeze has already occured with a 50% surge from 400. If it were to break upwards from this consolidation, it would have to also break a monthly down trend. 4 hour and 6 hour stochastic/rsi indicate over bought and signal sell.

I also dont see why longs should pour in, longs only just poured out, those traders will be too timid to re enter the market.

I disagree.

I think we are about to come out of this rather tight trading range within the next 18 hours, and probably much sooner.

I think we will see break up, aided and abetted by shorters covering their positions, longs will pile in, and the whales (exchange associated traders I suspect) who are ensuring the market is pushed up when it really wants to go back down, well then dump into the rush of long interest, which will force a strong correction, aided and abetted by panicked sellers fearing a textbook retracement to $400 range. However, I don't see this getting down much lower than say $540, where the whale rats will buy back their dumped coins and take tidy profits for successfully fucking the market like a bitch once again. At this point, All indicators will be in place for drive up.

So I suspect a good bit of market volatility is within sight, problem is that it will be a market volatility that stings the majority, and enriches the few who are causing it to occur.

For the record, I reckon lower lows before new ATHs......but not before a good period of uptrending.

because you might burn your ass in such bull trap.

I am going to my castle party and will be offline for a few days.

I've done some market analysis and decided that 575 is a fair price for bitcoin as of now. It is now -0.114 below the trendline. During the slump last summer, starting from the capitulation low and ending the day when daily average ATH was broken (122 days by the way), we were on average -0.251 below the trend. If we stay at this price until April 13, 2014, we will reach -0.251. This is regard as realistic. There is no need to go down, the trendline is going up and takes care that we will sink further below trendline as is predicted by the model.

I see the possibility for a further low below 400 as slim at the moment. If further flashcrashes occur, my target for the low point is 450-500.

The capitulation happened already. If you did not feel it, the reason is that here in the oldtimer threads in Bitcointalk people knew what was coming and were not afraid. Outside, people and media and newbies were, and still are, asking if Bitcoin is dead. There was blood on the streets. Don't expect that it will turn worse. It cannot. It can only go up from here.

There is no need to be hasty with purchases. Bitcoin is not going down, but neither is it going up. The trendline logistics prevent it from rising, and I would see 700 as a shorting price if I was in the intention to gamble now. In reality I just transferred the overmajority of my trading capital to cold wallets. If you want to buy now, bidding 500-550 is probably enough.

It is frivolous to think that history could exactly predict future, but because Bitcoin behaves self-similarly like a fractal, and because my past predictions based on this method have been quite amazingly correct, let's just calculate the day when ATH will be taken: June 27, 2014.

From there, it will likely take only 30 days to make a new ATH that will last several months.

Unless the Chasm interrupts the underlying, 5-year old growth paradigm in a way that nothing in Bitcoin's history has yet been able to do.

Cos it wasn't capitulation. Just a flash crash that everyone believes was the final capitulation and are now ready to pile in long....


......the price should trend higher for a bit from here, so why not join in and profit from the ride?

Maybe I'm missing it, but I didn't see capitulation anywhere.  I frequent numerous forums on widely varying interests (and hence degrees of separation from Bitcoin ground zero), and in all the crypto-currency related threads, there was very little, if any, panic.  The only detractors were the usual beanie baby/tulip/ponzi types who never had any skin in the game to begin with.