Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 312. (Read 907226 times)

Maybe I'm missing it, but I didn't see capitulation anywhere.  I frequent numerous forums on widely varying interests (and hence degrees of separation from Bitcoin ground zero), and in all the crypto-currency related threads, there was very little, if any, panic.  The only detractors were the usual beanie baby/tulip/ponzi types who never had any skin in the game to begin with.   

I disagree.

I think we are about to come out of this rather tight trading range within the next 18 hours, and probably much sooner.

I think we will see break up, aided and abetted by shorters covering their positions, longs will pile in, and the whales (exchange associated traders I suspect) who are ensuring the market is pushed up when it really wants to go back down, well then dump into the rush of long interest, which will force a strong correction, aided and abetted by panicked sellers fearing a textbook retracement to $400 range. However, I don't see this getting down much lower than say $540, where the whale rats will buy back their dumped coins and take tidy profits for successfully fucking the market like a bitch once again. At this point, All indicators will be in place for drive up.

So I suspect a good bit of market volatility is within sight, problem is that it will be a market volatility that stings the majority, and enriches the few who are causing it to occur.

For the record, I reckon lower lows before new ATHs......but not before a good period of uptrending.

+1 although i kinda smell shotr positions there..

I also feel like the capitulation happened at 400, it was a textbook bottom with the irrational fear of gox and the panic selling.

but flash bang and it's done? the move has failed break the trend, and so these lows need to be retested. the forces that are playing here cannot resolve in mere days. we should expect a fib retracement of at least of 50% to cerca 500 after a few days of quiet and consolidation. This is really common in any primary wave.

600 is going to be tough territory, we have already hit a barrier. The shell shocked will not be interested in buying back until the price is much higher, and until then, where will the demand come from? only the elite investors, and rest assured, they do not want to drive the market out of their own reach.

So I think we have entered the slow and miserable part of the capitulation.

Castle party?
Considering that moderator is into masks, etc.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_b-zpSnoHs

have fun!

That's the nuts and bolts of it right there. I knew that once I started to think "maybe this time it's different" that we were there. I'm what MTC calls a bitcoin nutter. I'm not going to change my opinion based on price action. I'm in no hurry. It will come. So in the short to medium term, if I feel doubt, then I know it's one of the darkest days.

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May your castle party be a great memory for your whole life.

Y'know, at these levels, we rather hide from the camera. But I heard from the MC that a 17-seater Hummer Limo will be there. I personally doubt the number of seats though but he said that it was the coolest car in Estonia and especially suitable because everyone fits in.

I used to always get  mad although I read and digested every post I saw that rpietila posted. I thought he was a naysayer, but slowly and especially now, I've come to realize he is spot on about a lot of things. Mad props to you bro, good luck at your party. I now put great faith in your June 27th prediction.

Pics or it didn't happen.

Same here. My biggest bid filled exactly at 400. All the unfilled bids below 400 I cancelled and bought back at 510-515.
Thanks to you and a few others that made excellent calls. Those ones and my own instinct allowed me to be right more often than I was wrong.

Since I started dumping it's been intense weeks of crashes, rumours, late nights, TA, retracements, downswings and upswings to play. Now it's time for me to bring those old and new hard earned coins away from the exchange. They make a huge % of my net worth and I have enough of trading for a while.

Enjoy your party! 

I am going to my castle party and will be offline for a few days.

I've done some market analysis and decided that 575 is a fair price for bitcoin as of now. It is now -0.114 below the trendline. During the slump last summer, starting from the capitulation low and ending the day when daily average ATH was broken (122 days by the way), we were on average -0.251 below the trend. If we stay at this price until April 13, 2014, we will reach -0.251. This is regard as realistic. There is no need to go down, the trendline is going up and takes care that we will sink further below trendline as is predicted by the model.

I see the possibility for a further low below 400 as slim at the moment. If further flashcrashes occur, my target for the low point is 450-500.

The capitulation happened already. If you did not feel it, the reason is that here in the oldtimer threads in Bitcointalk people knew what was coming and were not afraid. Outside, people and media and newbies were, and still are, asking if Bitcoin is dead. There was blood on the streets. Don't expect that it will turn worse. It cannot. It can only go up from here.

There is no need to be hasty with purchases. Bitcoin is not going down, but neither is it going up. The trendline logistics prevent it from rising, and I would see 700 as a shorting price if I was in the intention to gamble now. In reality I just transferred the overmajority of my trading capital to cold wallets. If you want to buy now, bidding 500-550 is probably enough.

It is frivolous to think that history could exactly predict future, but because Bitcoin behaves self-similarly like a fractal, and because my past predictions based on this method have been quite amazingly correct, let's just calculate the day when ATH will be taken: June 27, 2014.

From there, it will likely take only 30 days to make a new ATH that will last several months.

Unless the Chasm interrupts the underlying, 5-year old growth paradigm in a way that nothing in Bitcoin's history has yet been able to do.

hehe. Hadn't thought of that. And malleability issue was just a front for hiding the loss of the privkey?

It's a possibility and that would indeed be "legendary", as Risto put it.

What makes you 90% sure, though? I don't give this more than 20% chance in my mind.

6am is not the west coast being in 'full swing'. Most people are not even awake yet at 6am, and most people start work at 9am.

but also, gone are the days where sleeping in fiat is so comfy.... I couldnt forgive myself if I missed the bottom. 430 is a fair bottom, it may put up a fight.

Yes sorry, my post was a bit blunt I bought back in at $450 but wasn't convinced we had hit the bottom, now I really think we haven't.... time to sell up again I guess.

are you asking me specifically? I bought at 500 and sold at 585. I sold because the trend has not changed.

...... $150 is solid return, and no doubt some old school traders that know to take profit will.

If it passes 630.... then I change my mind.

If you bought back in at $450, would you take the profit and cash out now?

Thank you.

...... the chart is flat at significant resistance, it has not passed 630, so I have to assume top and further downtrend for tonight. new lows, why not? lets hope.