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Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 313. (Read 907212 times)

hero member
Activity: 840
Merit: 1000
It tells me the two of you aren't as smart as you keep telling each other you are.

I'm in the 'eastern' time zone and apart from the Gox closure crash the other day volume is always very slow on Stamp during the 'day'....it picks up around 7pm local when Europe is getting up and hots up later as the US responds.  Major upswings/downswings tend to have happened between 6am and 9 am local, corresponding with the West Coast being in full swing.  Apart from between October to December last year, its pretty much always been like that since last March at least.

The only advantage one gets being in the East of the planet is you see the news stories break and develop before they hit the global daily cycle.  But of course, as everyone here keeps telling me, news and sentiment have no impact on BTC.

Give me a break...Go and look at the 30 minute Huobi chart.

There you will see the times when China sleeps as the volume hits the floor. You will also see that during these 'China sleeps times' Bitcoin is most stagnant/stable. Like right fkn now for example, Bitcoin aint doing shit except have some whale move 1000BTC chips around either side of the Walls to achieve god knows what goals. Yesterday as well. As China slept, Bitcoin done shit (low $500, High $520). And even the day before that, and the day before that. All the big moves come when these guys are active. Don't tell me they don't cos I am looking at the fkn charts that tell me that this is the case, as I type.......

......and yes, the chart action on Huobi corresponds 100% with the chart action on Bitstamp. It would do, of course as most trading is done by bots running algorithms and all these bots are hooked up to price action on other major exchanges. In this sense, Huobi's ultra high and probably largely faked volume could be used as a means of manipulating USD exchange trading and actually, I am sure it is used for exactly this purpose. There are hundreds of millions to be leeched out the system here for a well organised bunch of cyber-cowboys.
full member
Activity: 210
Merit: 100
Lazy, cynical and insolent since 1968

You know why it makes you nocturnal in the US, and me nocturnal in the UK?

Because all the main market making n breaking action is coming from those of a Far East time zone persuasion.

What does that tell ya?

It tells me the two of you aren't as smart as you keep telling each other you are.

I'm in the 'eastern' time zone and apart from the Gox closure crash the other day volume is always very slow on Stamp during the 'day'....it picks up around 7pm local when Europe is getting up and hots up later as the US responds.  Major upswings/downswings tend to have happened between 6am and 9 am local, corresponding with the West Coast being in full swing.  Apart from between October to December last year, its pretty much always been like that since last March at least.

The only advantage one gets being in the East of the planet is you see the news stories break and develop before they hit the global daily cycle.  But of course, as everyone here keeps telling me, news and sentiment have no impact on BTC.
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1002
Frankly who wouldnt do the same if in such position? We're talking about 100s millions that arent covered by any laws around the world. Bitcoin is totally virtual in that sens. So far, not a single bitcoin thieve got condemned.

Me. I do not steal from people.

Its a rhetorical question in that sens that not everyone is honest anyway. I think he struggled for 3 years building that company against govs, FBI, banks, and is now having an anticipated retirement. And he got $100s milllions of reason to do so. Just saying its time to face reality.

edit: http://psychcentral.com/lib/the-5-stages-of-loss-and-grief/000617

But he's already made a ton of money, enough to retire. Stealing more just means he will have to look over his shoulder the rest of his life.

1/ never enough
2/ easy peasy in Japan

edit: http://www.bingham.com/Publications/Files/2012/02/A-Practical-Guide-to-Japanese-Insolvency-Procedures
member
Activity: 86
Merit: 16
Frankly who wouldnt do the same if in such position? We're talking about 100s millions that arent covered by any laws around the world. Bitcoin is totally virtual in that sens. So far, not a single bitcoin thieve got condemned.

Me. I do not steal from people.

Its a rhetorical question in that sens that not everyone is honest anyway. I think he struggled for 3 years building that company against govs, FBI, banks, and is now having an anticipated retirement. And he got $100s milllions of reason to do so. Just saying its time to face reality.

edit: http://psychcentral.com/lib/the-5-stages-of-loss-and-grief/000617

But he's already made a ton of money, enough to retire. Stealing more just means he will have to look over his shoulder the rest of his life.
member
Activity: 86
Merit: 16
in other side note, if some how Mark the MagicalTux does some magic and recover the key (assuming this is the case) how do you think this will effect the price:

1- confidence is recovered and the media start covering the positive turn of the whole situation and people start buying crazy, and the next boom ?
2- people who have accepted the fact that they lost their coins and magically got them back and dump them right away on exchanges and price goes down ?

3- people who have accepted the fact that they lost their coins and magically got them back and store them safely like they should have done before
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1002
Frankly who wouldnt do the same if in such position? We're talking about 100s millions that arent covered by any laws around the world. Bitcoin is totally virtual in that sens. So far, not a single bitcoin thieve got condemned.

Me. I do not steal from people.

Its a rhetorical question in that sens that not everyone is honest anyway. I think he struggled for 3 years building that company against govs, FBI, banks, and is now having an anticipated retirement. And he got $100s milllions of reasons to do so. Just saying its time to face reality.

edit: http://psychcentral.com/lib/the-5-stages-of-loss-and-grief/000617
full member
Activity: 210
Merit: 100
Lazy, cynical and insolent since 1968
there are 2 voices in my head now

I don't want to alarm you, but I had that too. They kept telling me 'The numbers are counting to zero' Then I snapped. Then I un-snapped three minutes later and proved that zero is fundamentally an irrational number, but they placed it into the rational number-line, and therefore it does not exist.

I'm currently 21 pages into a thesis about it.

Trust me, writing a thesis is a pain in the ass, and all the mathematicians I have explained it to have told me I would probably need to write more than one paper.

If you don't want to be stuck writing for the rest of your life, get rid of the voices.

My wife has just finished her thesis (yesterday) and it is a long, painful process....best of luck.
member
Activity: 86
Merit: 16
Frankly who wouldnt do the same if in such position? We're talking about 100s millions that arent covered by any laws around the world. Bitcoin is totally virtual in that sens. So far, not a single bitcoin thieve got condemned.

Me. I do not steal from people.
sr. member
Activity: 293
Merit: 250
in other side note, if some how Mark the MagicalTux does some magic and recover the key (assuming this is the case) how do you think this will effect the price:

1- confidence is recovered and the media start covering the positive turn of the whole situation and people start buying crazy, and the next boom ?
2- people who have accepted the fact that they lost their coins and magically got them back and dump them right away on exchanges and price goes down ?
I think the bitcoin builder buyers would be selling a lot of their coins for insane profit in that case; I don't think the other people who were just holding coins in mtgox would sell much. I'm not sure how smart most of them are holding coins in gox but I think they would move them off the exchange quickly at least.
hero member
Activity: 634
Merit: 500
there are 2 voices in my head now

I don't want to alarm you, but I had that too. They kept telling me 'The numbers are counting to zero' Then I snapped. Then I un-snapped three minutes later and proved that zero is fundamentally an irrational number, but they placed it into the rational number-line, and therefore it does not exist.

I'm currently 21 pages into a thesis about it.

Trust me, writing a thesis is a pain in the ass, and all the mathematicians I have explained it to have told me I would probably need to write more than one paper.

If you don't want to be stuck writing for the rest of your life, get rid of the voices.
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1002
Guys,

Mark just stole the bitcoins. No one is ever going to recover them. Thats just the way it is when doing business in Bitcoinland. At some point the temptation is just too high. It already happened with many other exchanges and services, claiming they've been hacked or which just vanished. Mark saw the opportunity to retire from this exhaustive business when that malleability issue reappeared few months ago. So he covered his steal - stop thinking that building such a platform and taking it to those heights is possible from someone stupid/incompetent. Now he is out of anyone's reach on that Japan Island, meeting lawyers to negotiate 100% immunity and with a government that now stops protesting movements against him. Plus he might sell his business too (and without the stolen coins!).. The guy's a smart greedy con and is just going to live happily ever after.

Frankly who wouldnt do the same if in such position? We're talking about 100s millions that arent covered by any laws around the world. Bitcoin is totally virtual in that sens. So far, not a single bitcoin thieve got condemned.

I think its time for you to move on and be more careful whist trading with a third party.
After all, isnt that what Bitcoin's all about?!
Until then it surely wont be the last service to go down.

edit: sorry for your loss.. if any
legendary
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1028
Duelbits.com
so the theory is and I can say 90% that this is what happened, Mark lost the private key, but he thinks that he can recover it, he reached for help, he told the Big guys about the problem, they were shocked and didn't want to help him and went out in 24 hour to tell us that Mtgox is insolvent instead of helping him recover customer funds, it was interesting how they just made a statement in 24 hours without any explanation to just tell everyone forgot your funds...

It would be just legendary to have those coins sitting forever in known addresses  Tongue

would give a real price boost to any holder right now, but I feel for the people who lost funds, I really hope that he can recover the key if this is the case, we don't need this bad advertisement, especially now ...

I lost 11 BTC there but if it would (and it would) give the boost to my other 500+ let them die in agony  Grin
newbie
Activity: 22
Merit: 0
so the theory is and I can say 90% that this is what happened, Mark lost the private key, but he thinks that he can recover it, he reached for help, he told the Big guys about the problem, they were shocked and didn't want to help him and went out in 24 hour to tell us that Mtgox is insolvent instead of helping him recover customer funds, it was interesting how they just made a statement in 24 hours without any explanation to just tell everyone forgot your funds...

How do you figure 90%? That would be a pretty silly thing to happen to someone, especially someone working with btc all day... even to Mark.
hero member
Activity: 840
Merit: 1000
We will drop to less than $400 by or before March 16.

Litecoin is about to take a big hit too, it will be a surprise to everyone involved, single digits.

I'm basing this in extensive research on Chinese markets and bot analysis. I hope to return to this thread and confirm my expectations.

Ya know what, I believe you.

I believe that a bunch of Chinese cyber cowboys are ripping the arse out of Bitcoin for all that they can get out of it. Practically all the main action is always happening during these fkrs waking hours despite the fact it is meant to be banned over their and it is rumoured that all the Huobi volume is faked.

However, I don't believe that we will see a lower low anytime soon. I believe that we will see the confirmatory test of the bottom that everyone is waiting on, and then Bitcoin will be allowed to grow for a bit, taking out a few significant supports in the process and bringing confidence rushing back into market, then back to business followed ultimately by lower lows and whole new depths of despair.

Bitcoin is getting fucked with. Of that I am certain, and I find it hard to imagine that the game is now up quite so easily, with everyone around here patting themselves on the back with glee and preparing for the run up to new all-time highs.
full member
Activity: 208
Merit: 101
My vote, much down for a short time. If that was me, I would sell at least 30%...

in other side note, if some how Mark the MagicalTux does some magic and recover the key (assuming this is the case) how do you think this will effect the price:

1- confidence is recovered and the media start covering the positive turn of the whole situation and people start buying crazy, and the next boom ?
2- people who have accepted the fact that they lost their coins and magically got them back and dump them right away on exchanges and price goes down ?
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1001
things you own end up owning you
in other side note, if some how Mark the MagicalTux does some magic and recover the key (assuming this is the case) how do you think this will effect the price:

1- confidence is recovered and the media start covering the positive turn of the whole situation and people start buying crazy, and the next boom ?
2- people who have accepted the fact that they lost their coins and magically got them back and dump them right away on exchanges and price goes down ?
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1001
things you own end up owning you
so the theory is and I can say 90% that this is what happened, Mark lost the private key, but he thinks that he can recover it, he reached for help, he told the Big guys about the problem, they were shocked and didn't want to help him and went out in 24 hour to tell us that Mtgox is insolvent instead of helping him recover customer funds, it was interesting how they just made a statement in 24 hours without any explanation to just tell everyone forgot your funds...

It would be just legendary to have those coins sitting forever in known addresses  Tongue

would give a real price boost to any holder right now, but I feel for the people who lost funds, I really hope that he can recover the key if this is the case, we don't need this bad advertisement, especially now ...
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
so the theory is and I can say 90% that this is what happened, Mark lost the private key, but he thinks that he can recover it, he reached for help, he told the Big guys about the problem, they were shocked and didn't want to help him and went out in 24 hour to tell us that Mtgox is insolvent instead of helping him recover customer funds, it was interesting how they just made a statement in 24 hours without any explanation to just tell everyone forgot your funds...

It would be just legendary to have those coins sitting forever in known addresses  Tongue
full member
Activity: 208
Merit: 101
You should be selling your signals Smiley, I would be the first to buy!

i played the daytrading game during the april 2013 bubble. put in a measly $2k, convinced my parents to put in $2k, and proceeded to daytrade like a madman and turned that $4k into $20k. it was the damnest thing: i woke up the morning of the crash, looked at the price which was trying to eat through $260 and thought to myself, "self, it went exponential compared to yesterday, i should sell and buy the dip." but it was 6 am and i'd just woken up. went downstairs and ate a bowl of cereal. came back upstairs and the price was $140 and gox was completely frozen. so sad...i promised myself i'd just buy and go long from then on, and i made a hell of a lot more holding my coins for half a year and selling at 900 than i ever did day trading Tongue now time to do it all again!
I've discovered a 'best of both worlds' strategy you can use during bull markets. You keep some coins on bitfinex - keep them as coins at all times (not usd), in your margin trading wallet. Then whenever there is a sharp movement downwards, you take an additional 2-1 margin trading position briefly during the volatility to make profits. Then convert your profits to bitcoins and add them to your stash. This way you have the ability to take advantage of volatility and downswings while still being able to keep all of your funds long in coins - it makes you much more able to commit to being long. I used this strategy during the october/november rally and used it to make a 50x gain rather than the 8x gain that everyone else was making. Of course this strategy also requires that you trust Bitfinex with those coins, and that you're not keeping them in cold storage, so it's not really "the best of both worlds".
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1001
things you own end up owning you
so the theory is and I can say 90% that this is what happened, Mark lost the private key, but he thinks that he can recover it, he reached for help, he told the Big guys about the problem, they were shocked and didn't want to help him and went out in 24 hour to tell us that Mtgox is insolvent instead of helping him recover customer funds, it was interesting how they just made a statement in 24 hours without any explanation to just tell everyone forgot your funds...
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