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Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 316. (Read 907212 times)

legendary
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1028
Duelbits.com
This is what you call premature bullishness - http://www.businessinsider.com.au/bitcoin-recovery-2014-2

The fact that he calls it a recovery is not only a signal for profit taking, but a recovery in 24 hrs? no sir.

The fact that you change your mind each half an hour is good indicator you should stay away from trading for few days  Grin
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1001
things you own end up owning you
The move has been stunted for the night. capped by 610, I think we will test the 500 level again. this little bull run was too steep.

I actually did sell some, hard to believe it has steam to raise above 600 now. The train is not leaving anybody, but the tide has turned. 500 here we come!

just make sure to not ignore the 1d chart, indicators are showing that there will be a crossover in a couple of days with high volume it could be a nice reverse, I made a fine profit from yesterday and I am not risking it for few % ...

we were in a long bear market, this could turn out to a long bull market in few days, of course there will be waves, allot of them, but I am not risking this one...it just not worth it...

legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
This is what you call premature bullishness - http://www.businessinsider.com.au/bitcoin-recovery-2014-2

The fact that he calls it a recovery is not only a signal for profit taking, but a recovery in 24 hrs? no sir.
full member
Activity: 210
Merit: 100
Lazy, cynical and insolent since 1968
Ok, here a little paint. There are a quite a few similarities. I am well informed about all events since october. Who knows about the events from april to september?

...snip..

The rise in March would correlate with a lot of media stories about both SR and Bitcoin.  After 266 there was a lot of fear, a few merchant adoptions, a lot of Gox-hate...I seem to remember it was a very dull period (esp compared to the last few weeks) but in hindsight it was exactly what was needed. 

My fear is that the next few weeks/months will bring the crypto eco-system into the glare of the MSM and I'm not sure all of the current participants will survive the exposure.
hero member
Activity: 577
Merit: 500
Jesus was a (Goddamn) hippy socialist
I have a feeling I would like to share with you guys
it is not purely TA analysis but more of a Market Dynamics Analysis


What if this last rally/bubble (peak @ ~1200) was (partly) caused by Mtgox's long term liquidity problems
(the other reason being the Chinese buying like mad)  

I know for a fact that me and my friends wanted to get some money out from Gox after the April bubble
but the delays were very very long so we bought back and moved to Stamp and hedl because the price was going up
So I presume many (I mean MANY) people did the same thing,
resulting in the price going up in Gox and the rest of exchanges followed  


The result of the above (moving from Gox + Chinese madness) was the December spike


My Question to you guys is
What would the price have been if Gox had no liquidity problems

I know this purely theoretical/speculative but it would be interesting to hear your thoughts on the matter
 





  




 
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
The move has been stunted for the night. capped by 610, I think we will test the 500 level again. this little bull run was too steep.

I actually did sell some, hard to believe it has steam to raise above 600 now. The train is not leaving anybody, but the tide has turned. 500 here we come!

it was a decisive point. it is touching some very important short term averages. If it cant pass through those effortlessly, then the panic is not resolved.

when the curve goes exponential and stalls like that at resistance, it is left very weak....
hero member
Activity: 546
Merit: 500
hm
Ok, here a little paint. There are a quite a few similarities. I am well informed about all events since october. Who knows about the events from april to september?

full member
Activity: 532
Merit: 100
PrimeDAO - An Adoption Engine for Open Finance
The move has been stunted for the night. capped by 610, I think we will test the 500 level again. this little bull run was too steep.

I actually did sell some, hard to believe it has steam to raise above 600 now. The train is not leaving anybody, but the tide has turned. 500 here we come!
Any theories on why such a crazy bounce occurred? There are no 55% surges out of capitulation in the history of bitcoin. And look at the stamp order book. Wow!

complete Chinese market manipulation, i've been observing the chinese volumes and comparing it to the patterns we see now and we've seen in the past 2 months, very unnatural movements. I also explained it here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/china-has-turned-bitcoin-into-worlds-largest-casino-fooled-you-all-488485

my level of respect of rpietila really increased today, i'm glad he's a true realist rather than just going "to the moon" like everyone else is.
hero member
Activity: 728
Merit: 500
The move has been stunted for the night. capped by 610, I think we will test the 500 level again. this little bull run was too steep.

I actually did sell some, hard to believe it has steam to raise above 600 now. The train is not leaving anybody, but the tide has turned. 500 here we come!
Any theories on why such a crazy bounce occurred? There are no 55% surges out of capitulation in the history of bitcoin. And look at the stamp order book. Wow!
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
The move has been stunted for the night. capped by 610, I think we will test the 500 level again. this little bull run was too steep.

I actually did sell some, hard to believe it has steam to raise above 600 now. The train is not leaving anybody, but the tide has turned. 500 here we come!
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
The move has been stunted for the night. capped by 610, I think we will test the 500 level again. this little bull run was too steep.
full member
Activity: 532
Merit: 100
PrimeDAO - An Adoption Engine for Open Finance
For all who are asking - Yes, this does not look like it is over yet. Too sharp recovery shows that the market has pressure in both directions.

I think that we are overextended and will go down from here before the end of March. How much? That is harder to say.

EDIT: Those TA guys know better how to describe the current +50% in 24 hours situation, and how long it typically takes before it resolves. I just know that right now would be a good place to sell, rather than buy.

EDIT2: No, it is too risky to sell anymore. Up, up, UP!!  Grin

Thank u rpietila for being always honest and not sticking to one opinion, you turn bull and turn bear when required this is why you own 10,000BTC+ and we the peasants don't have so much, truly a successful person i must say.

I said yesterday that the current run up was way too quick and too strong, imo it is the chinese playing art-of-war, Bitcoin has become a Chinese dominant market and they are extending this whole thing and made it like a casino

A proper bottom means the price would stabilize for a bit in like $400-$500 range, i remember in april bubble we sticked around $70-$100 range for a while, that was a proper bottom/capitulation. I also remember when gold peaks at $1900, everytime a sharp drop happend, it went up pretty quick and ppl said it's the bottom but look where it went down to.

i predict we will go down again at EXACTLY on the 16th of March, i have strong TA research to back this up with a pro-trader. All i can say is wait till 16th of March and see for yourself and check back on my post!

legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
For all who are asking - Yes, this does not look like it is over yet. Too sharp recovery shows that the market has pressure in both directions.

I think that we are overextended and will go down from here before the end of March. How much? That is harder to say.

EDIT: Those TA guys know better how to describe the current +50% in 24 hours situation, and how long it typically takes before it resolves. I just know that right now would be a good place to sell, rather than buy.

EDIT2: No, it is too risky to sell anymore. Up, up, UP!!  Grin

Lol I was just looking at the charts and considering selling since you mentioned it, and thinking, very well it is going up too fast, but where the hell would I actually sell?? if it passes 630, there is just simply no target to sell. It would have to hit a ceiling.
there are only buy target that I see.
full member
Activity: 216
Merit: 100
RicePicker
This chart is from the period 1 May 2013 to 29 Sept 2013 and is very instructive if you want to see parallels with more recent events.



We see the double bottom and the reversal confirmed with the SMA200 being broken; but we also see a long grind back before exponential growth takes hold.  I think these recovery phases are contracting in terms of time but I still wouldn't be packing your space gear just yet.

The thing is that if you were smart enough you probably got in around $400-450 range. Even if it goes down to say $350-380 that is a minor risk that most people should take. Even if it goes down again its going to go back right up again at some point...
legendary
Activity: 3766
Merit: 5146
Whimsical Pants

We see the double bottom and the reversal confirmed with the SMA200 being broken; but we also see a long grind back before exponential growth takes hold.  I think these recovery phases are contracting in terms of time but I still wouldn't be packing your space gear just yet.

I think this is very instructive.

And yet, we have not seen this exact market condition before...  this time it's a little different in my humble opinion.
full member
Activity: 210
Merit: 100
Lazy, cynical and insolent since 1968
This chart is from the period 1 May 2013 to 29 Sept 2013 and is very instructive if you want to see parallels with more recent events.



We see the double bottom and the reversal confirmed with the SMA200 being broken; but we also see a long grind back before exponential growth takes hold.  I think these recovery phases are contracting in terms of time but I still wouldn't be packing your space gear just yet.
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001

What price did u buy at?

I'm pretty sure we will revisit $400 range soon, no hurry to buy

Im not so sure that we will see 400 again. what will drive it? the worst news is over - Mt Gox lost 700k Bitcoins. that was a catalyst (and perhaps not even accurate)

sub 400 took a lot of selling pressure, and we bounced big. If you ask me, when we pass 630, the down trend is over.

I bought at $500. I might have got in at 470 if BTCe wasnt under ddos attack, but oh well.
hero member
Activity: 728
Merit: 500
fuck i give up with trading after reversal. i have cast one last net in the 500s and 400s and will be withdrawing all fills.
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
For all who are asking - Yes, this does not look like it is over yet. Too sharp recovery shows that the market has pressure in both directions.

I think that we are overextended and will go down from here before the end of March. How much? That is harder to say.

EDIT: Those TA guys know better how to describe the current +50% in 24 hours situation, and how long it typically takes before it resolves. I just know that right now would be a good place to sell, rather than buy.

EDIT2: No, it is too risky to sell anymore. Up, up, UP!!  Grin
hero member
Activity: 728
Merit: 500
Lot of money to spent on that yet.

Work is cheap in Estonia. It's a country with European taste, good infrastructure, cheap prices and beautiful women. If only the weather was not so cold. The last one not being  a problem for a Finnish chap anyway. Wink
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