Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 317. (Read 907223 times)

Similar situation in December:



(too lazy to draw rectangle and arrow. Would put arrow saying "you are here" at Dec. 18th, 4pm and rectangle around the preceding V shape)

That time we didn't visit back to $400... well, until yesterday that is.

My best guess is still it'll play out similarly. "Extended V bottom":



EDIT: If it plays out like Dec 18th, we'd have formed a nice "double bottom" like in aftermath of April, no?

I'm putting my cards on the V shaped extension. Selling now and trying to rebuy around 520.

On the other hand: there seems to be quite some buying pressure left... interesting times, indeed.

What price did u buy at?

I'm pretty sure we will revisit $400 range soon, no hurry to buy

Great call last night Mr. Rpietila. Im sure this is a bottom of some kind.

my TA was ironically precise, but not very accurate. I said it need to pass 431, but it goes and bounces off 431!

lesson learned, dont be greedy. I should have snapped up a couple at 430.

I will watch eagerly as it passes cerca 630, that would be good EW confirmation to me that we will unlikely see 430 ever again.

FTFY

the 45% flash recovery does not fit in with any previous bitcoin recovery. it is always a 20% recovery followed by a resistance that takes days or weeks to get though. This is not behaving at all like a capitulation bottom but more like a silk road style flashcrash recovery.

wow, once that place is renovated it's going to be beautiful.  congratulations to rpietila on the purchase

Lot of money to spent on that yet.

Streetview from 2011: http://goo.gl/maps/LJ4k2

There were a lot of false dawns between May and September last year, to expect a reversal this soon is pretty outlandish (but not impossible).  


I'm not as inclined to agree.  I think there is a lot more "loose change" ie investment that is purely speculative and owned, than you realise.  I say this as someone who has been looking at Bitcoin for over a year now and on these boards the same time.  But no doubt you will disagree vehemently, but perhaps that's because you spend a lot of time at BitFinex?


I wish I could be so assertive about my beliefs after such a short period -- all I know for sure is I'm still learning.  News and rumour have huge effects on this market more than most...everyone is looking for a strategic advantage, knowledge is power etc.  Never under-estimate the power of a rumour to change people's behaviour.

But I agree the market had to cool off...and its still hot to touch...the Bitcoin bear markets are getting shorter but we'll need at least a month I suspect.

I wouldn't worry about 'cyber thieves'....I suspect that 10K the other day may have been from nefarious origins.  Dodgy coins have been liquidated and on their way since...well, the beginning.  And I don't think the 'Karpeles Coins' are lost, simply irretrievable.  And of course dodgy fiat goes in and out of circulation...it doesn't drop currency rates.

EDIT: As life imitates art

This from rotters
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/26/mtgox-subpoena-idUSL3N0LV0UZ20140226

yup,
& bulltrap it is imho...

Do not underestimate the power of the 3.5 million USD liquidity sucker punch, that the 10K whale dealt to the market. Much of that capital would be leverage. Will be a lot of traders sweating to make up loss ground and delighted for first opportunity they have to get their shirts back on their backs and competing like fuck to take it....this will likely entail lots of manipulative actions designed to trick over eager punters into thinking market is going one way, when in fact it is going to go the other way.

If I can get back in here at $540, I will do so, but I will be ready to drop in an instant if the market starts drawing spooky patterns. Will $570 be taken out? Possibly. And then $580 - $590? I seriously doubt it!

Sure, news come too late just as many TA indicators. But unlike any of TA stuff, news are sure bet to trade and easiest money if one reacts on time.

Bitstamp approaching critical level...... 580..... will there be a monster 5k sell order awaiting still? doubt it. great to be back in coins.

In my very brief experience of trading Bitcoin or trading anything else for that matter, I find that an over-belief in the impact of news events is a great weakness. With the odd notable exceptions, at best these news events are catalysers of market movement, not directors of the market. The market was heading down this neck of the woods at any rate, Gox fear just helped it get here. The big issue around Gox is not so much it going down, but the mass of coins in the hands of cyber thieves (no doubt Mark Karpeles being amongst them) many of whom are looking to capitalise in a clear declining market.


Can't short, nothing on Bitfinex at the moment and I aint risking running the gauntlet of buying $560 BTC on Stamp when there is every chance that Bitcoin may be at $540 by the time they get there. Not sure I would short right at this point in time either. There is a good chance that $570 is top for now, but absolutely no market indicators to confirm this is indeed the case.

hmm so i just shorted *again. dont want to be loaded until Mark finally spits it out (heard he actually got some lawyer apointment tmrw). still a long and painful week to go imo (well, depending on your positions i'd guess ^^). and its surely not that pumping whale on stamp that is going to reverse it all in a blink.

But those two crashes were caused by meaningful and very strong reason. Mtgox going down should never cause bitcoin price to crash, actually quite opposite as numbers of bitcoins are removed from market with their insolvency. But it was still obvious crash would happen as that's how bitcoiners function.

We'll surely see dips here and there. Good luck catching those, that's game I don't want to play. I don't trade TA anyway.. news and market sentiment are enough to make enough successful trades here and there.

If you mean the Dec crashes, those were a whole different order of magnitude to this one, and right after a parabolic phase.

If we can state that this crash started at $640 and hit $400, that is a $230 crash. We have just seen a $170 recovery up until now with no meaningful corrections standing in its way, all within 20 hours or something....that is a 70% recovery up until now.

By comparison, the Dec 17th crash could be argued to have started at $870 and hit $380, that is a $490 crash. We then seen a recovery until $720, that is again around 70%. However, this played out over the course of a good few days. In contrast, this crash and recovery from start to finish has occurred in about 48 hours.

Do you not perhaps think that there is an argument for the market being in a hyper-volatile whiplash like state, and now that it has bounced from the very bottom, that is must now correct (and probably very sharply)?

Also bear in my mind the 3.5 million USD of market liquidity that the 10K whale tricked trading bots into splashing out at $580. The owners of these bots, are either bag-holding, or took heavy losses at this price point. That has got to count for something going forward..i.e. a mass of traders competing to cancel out heavy losses.


U did on those occasions anyhow....

I won't bother showing you my screenshot of 60 BTC at $391.34 (yeah, I have missed out on around 10K of potential gains due to being $9 too greedy and too stupid to place staggered buy-in tranches)......

...in my defense, I was in my bed from $530 downwards during the drop.

I dunno, I'm no trader I do ok though...

Last 2 crashes reversal came after 250-300$ rises  

I got caught in first of them heavily after buying on the very bottom, and sold too early in 2nd one too, that won't happen this time.

Yeah.....great fun, especially when the general trend is behaving so predictably.

I just turned ~1100 USD from a 20 BTC trade. Had I waited two minutes it would have been 400 more, but all in all, not bad for a days work.

Got considerably more than that from my short yesterday as well. If I could do this on a daily basis, I would have to give up the day-job.

Being caught with the pants down however, is not much fun at all.....we have shot up dramatically without any meaningful correction since the bottom at 400, and a reversal must come, but when?