Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 315. (Read 907212 times)
The problem with looking at the orderbooks is that after a massive crash there is usually always a massive influx of USD that is shown on the orderbooks. The market went down to $400 because of a lot of panic selling and many of those panic sellers simply want to buy back without any loses so they place bids on the orderbook hoping to catch the next crash.
I wonder if rpetelia will come along and again tell me that orderbooks are irrelevant. Even with this insane orderbook.
I edited my reply with the following:
"Also, last night at $750, the bid/ask walls were a near mirror image of what they are now. You can see the 5000 BTC of buying power that destroyed the huge Ask walls (2 minutes after I cam out my long). Never trust the walls. Wall momentum perhaps, but not wall shape."
Also, I am of course aware of these links (especially the Bitstamp order book), but I don't see where it tells me about the amount of liquidity that has flowed into the exchange overnight.
If 16M USD has just rocked up at exchange overnight......then that is insanely bullish.
Point 3 above, is of particular interest. Where do you get access to the amount of USD on an exchange?
It's not really the amount of USD on the exchange but the amount in open orders.
https://www.bitstamp.net/market/order_book/
http://bitcoinity.org/markets/bitstamp/USD
I wonder if rpetelia will come along and again tell me that orderbooks are irrelevant. Even with this insane orderbook.
Also, there is far too much relief and euphoria around here........perhaps that this psychology exists cos it isn't really yet the bottom?
This could very well be the case. But personally I am also fooled by the relief and euphoria and find it likely that a bottom has been found.
and do you stand head and shoulders in terms of cold rationality amongst your fellow man?
Who is to say that your belief that bear market has reversed doesn't just ensure that you will become plankton for the market makers to feed on?
At this point in time, I can't possibly say that I am forecasting lower lows or still medium term bearish, but rather just playing devils advocate here. After all, the market bottom of a bear trend is rarely the market bottom, when the majority of people are standing around pointing and shouting;
"Look everyone, that is the bottom in!"
"Hooray, we can all now go long Bitcoin and live happily ever after"
I won't become plankton for the market makers, because I am not trading, just holding, buying a bit here, spending some there. I have thus the luxury that I can be rather liberal with what I choose to believe
I share your sentiment about the "obviousness" of it all. People standing around and pointing the bottom out to each other. And this big rally. Smells kind of fishy doesn't it? But like in poker, where you can outwit your opponents by thinking exactly one level ahead of them, this could be a bluff by the market in a spot where the opponent (you and I) would think "surely he can't be bluffing in this spot"/"surely the bottom can't be THAT obvious". Well perhaps it can and that is the deception of it. I guess we will find out soon.
Pardon me if I haven't been paying attention, but what is your take on the market from here?
Maybe you should do some reading...let's see TERA called 450 a 'natural bottom' and 520 unbreakable resistance...oh and he quit trading... again.
You guys should get a room.
450: I thought that was going to be a local bottom during a multistep downtrend before a further drop. I didn't realize this entire drop was going to be all in one leg.
520: I called that 520 was going to be a short term resistance based on 4 hour charts and that it wouldn't proceed past that until 4 hour macd crossed. That area did serve as a level of resistance for an entire 12 hours but ended up prempting the MACD by a few hours. I believe you still had the chance to buy at 535 when it finally crossed.
Quit trading: I said I was going to quit trading AFTER REVERSALS (in bull markets). This not only has a trading purpose behind it but also allows me to keep my coins in cold storage away from the dangers of exchanges which I shouldn't take if I'm going to be in coins most of the time.
Here's the evidence I have so far that 400 was (probably) bottom:
1. The VOLUME: Bitstamp did 118K BTC of volume in a day. This type of volume hasn't been seen since the bottom in December. Huobi also did a record volume of >300K but Huobi might be irrelevant.
2. The trends support this being possible bottom: including the horizontal support at 380 and the long term logarithmic support somewhere between 300 and 500 (each of us have a different opinion about where this trend is).
3. The order book: The bitstamp order book now looks like a monster of giant continuous bidwalls against a tiny ask. Everything is consistent and there are no more 'cliffs' for the price to fall off of. The amount of fiat on there increased from 8M to 22M (an ATH) overnight.
4. The hammer candle on the daily chart.
5. The recovery right back above the 530 low that took two weeks to break.
6. The amount of overextended short interest that was on bitfinex.
7. The weekly chart pattern consistency with all previous bitcoin rallies (except 2011 bubble)
Point 3 above, is of particular interest. Where do you get access to the amount of USD on an exchange?
Also, last night at $750, the bid/ask walls were a near mirror image of what they are now. You can see the 5000 BTC of buying power that destroyed the huge Ask walls (2 minutes after I cam out my long). Never trust the walls. Wall momentum perhaps, but not wall shape.
Also, there is far too much relief and euphoria around here........perhaps that this psychology exists cos it isn't really yet the bottom?
This could very well be the case. But personally I am also fooled by the relief and euphoria and find it likely that a bottom has been found.
and do you stand head and shoulders in terms of cold rationality amongst your fellow man?
Who is to say that your belief that bear market has reversed doesn't just ensure that you will become plankton for the market makers to feed on?
At this point in time, I can't possibly say that I am forecasting lower lows or still medium term bearish, but rather just playing devils advocate here. After all, the market bottom of a bear trend is rarely the market bottom, when the majority of people are standing around pointing and shouting;
"Look everyone, that is the bottom in!"
"Hooray, we can all now go long Bitcoin and live happily ever after"
Pardon me if I haven't been paying attention, but what is your take on the market from here?
Maybe you should do some reading...let's see TERA called 450 a 'natural bottom' and 520 unbreakable resistance...oh and he quit trading... again.
You guys should get a room.
Matt, Im following that chart. doubly significant to me, because breaking that upper trendline would be terminating the wedge that the trendline forms underneath. EW states wedges are terminal movements, it's would signal to me the ultimate reversal. but it seems like it has no energy left.
today I was hoping to break 630, but I guess Ill just have to buy some more cheap coins ..... could be worse =P
today I was hoping to break 630, but I guess Ill just have to buy some more cheap coins ..... could be worse =P
What? That rise took 8 days. This took less than one day.
Pardon me if I haven't been paying attention, but what is your take on the market from here?
I have buy-ins in low $500s and I am short since just recently $575 (after suffering a little bit of slippage transferring BTC around). What sort of a retraction would you personally be looking at here? Would you consider the possibility that the 'recovery' has occurred so sharply, that it may actually represent a dramatic counter trend reaction. Afterall, it could be argued that we have fallen short of the last crest at $640, and looking at the longer term chart and forgetting the astronomical nominal values involved, it could be argued we are staying right on track for lower lows:
I am not saying that I necessarily subscribe to this viewpoint at this point in time, but this recovery has been insane and very much in keeping with the sharp price spikes consistent with bear market counter trend rallies. Also, there is far too much relief and euphoria around here........perhaps that this psychology exists cos it isn't really yet the bottom?
Here's the evidence I have so far that 400 was (probably) bottom:
1. The VOLUME: Bitstamp did 118K BTC of volume in a day. This type of volume hasn't been seen since the bottom in December. Huobi also did a record volume of >300K but Huobi might be irrelevant.
2. The trends support this being possible bottom: including the horizontal support at 380 and the long term logarithmic support somewhere between 300 and 500 (each of us have a different opinion about where this trend is).
3. The order book: The bitstamp order book now looks like a monster of giant continuous bidwalls against a tiny ask. Everything is consistent and there are no more 'cliffs' for the price to fall off of. The amount of fiat on there increased from 8M to 22M (an ATH) overnight.
4. The hammer candle on the daily chart.
5. The recovery right back above the 530 low that took two weeks to break.
6. The amount of overextended short interest that was on bitfinex.
7. The weekly chart pattern consistency with all previous bitcoin rallies (except 2011 bubble)
Also, there is far too much relief and euphoria around here........perhaps that this psychology exists cos it isn't really yet the bottom?
This could very well be the case. But personally I am also fooled by the relief and euphoria and find it likely that a bottom has been found.
What? That rise took 8 days. This took less than one day.
Pardon me if I haven't been paying attention, but what is your take on the market from here?
I have buy-ins in low $500s and I am short since just recently $575 (after suffering a little bit of slippage transferring BTC around). What sort of a retraction would you personally be looking at here? Would you consider the possibility that the 'recovery' has occurred so sharply, that it may actually represent a dramatic counter trend reaction. Afterall, it could be argued that we have fallen short of the last crest at $640, and looking at the longer term chart and forgetting the astronomical nominal values involved, it could be argued we are staying right on track for lower lows:
I am not saying that I necessarily subscribe to this viewpoint at this point in time, but this recovery has been insane and very much in keeping with the sharp price spikes consistent with bear market counter trend rallies. Also, there is far too much relief and euphoria around here........perhaps that this psychology exists cos it isn't really yet the bottom?
Any theories on why such a crazy bounce occurred? There are no 55% surges out of capitulation in the history of bitcoin. And look at the stamp order book. Wow!
My non-TA perspective: the last bear market in May - June 2013 occurred in an environment of relative quiet and was rather dull. Less people were paying close attention (myself included as it was spring/summer and I was traveling instead of sitting at home, staring at charts) so the capitulation event was under less intense scrutiny. Nonetheless when I look at the daily chart the crossing of 1day EMA happened rather quickly after the bottom.
In contrast, this bear market had a lot of media exposure with gox related problems and a lot of well informed people actively looking for the bottom. Gox closing down and the huge sell-off with a bounce from 400 made a lot of those people who are watching this closely think that the bottom has been found. They have been ready to buy for some time now but have waited for some sort of closure on the Gox situation. Closure has been provided more or less-ish so the first salvo of the fiat cannons has been enormous, because it has presumably been building up for some time.
Congratulation for the mansion, its the really fine place, hope I will visit it, really near place I live
The move has been stunted for the night. capped by 610, I think we will test the 500 level again. this little bull run was too steep.
I actually did sell some, hard to believe it has steam to raise above 600 now. The train is not leaving anybody, but the tide has turned. 500 here we come!
just make sure to not ignore the 1d chart...
...this could turn out to a long bull market in few days
The move has been stunted for the night. capped by 610, I think we will test the 500 level again. this little bull run was too steep.
I actually did sell some, hard to believe it has steam to raise above 600 now. The train is not leaving anybody, but the tide has turned. 500 here we come!
just make sure to not ignore the 1d chart...
...this could turn out to a long bull market in few days
Media reports are number 1 contrarian indicator!
my favourite.... the only time you know when you are right is when you know everyone else is wrong.
This is what you call premature bullishness - http://www.businessinsider.com.au/bitcoin-recovery-2014-2
The fact that he calls it a recovery is not only a signal for profit taking, but a recovery in 24 hrs? no sir.
The fact that he calls it a recovery is not only a signal for profit taking, but a recovery in 24 hrs? no sir.
This is the same bunch of clowns that last week that an Australian company would be setting up the world's first BTC bank by the end of the year (for those who missed it Neo & Bee opened yesterday). Dire, uninformed dross...if it were in print, i wouldn't wrap my chips in it.
This is what you call premature bullishness - http://www.businessinsider.com.au/bitcoin-recovery-2014-2
The fact that he calls it a recovery is not only a signal for profit taking, but a recovery in 24 hrs? no sir.
The fact that he calls it a recovery is not only a signal for profit taking, but a recovery in 24 hrs? no sir.
Media reports are number 1 contrarian indicator!
This is what you call premature bullishness - http://www.businessinsider.com.au/bitcoin-recovery-2014-2
The fact that he calls it a recovery is not only a signal for profit taking, but a recovery in 24 hrs? no sir.
The fact that he calls it a recovery is not only a signal for profit taking, but a recovery in 24 hrs? no sir.
The fact that you change your mind each half an hour is good indicator you should stay away from trading for few days
I changed my mind 24hours ago, and I have only been paying attention today, hoping to break 630, but not expeting it. best to be flexible at critical levels!
Jump to: