Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 314. (Read 907212 times)

From Lets talk bitcoin tweeted by Shrem https://twitter.com/CharlieShrem/status/438794961065345024



http://letstalkbitcoin.com/somethings-not-right-at-gox/#.Uw5lrfmwJBl

We will drop to less than $400 by or before March 16.

Litecoin is about to take a big hit too, it will be a surprise to everyone involved, single digits.

I'm basing this in extensive research on Chinese markets and bot analysis. I hope to return to this thread and confirm my expectations.

They put all the shit out already, what can be worst than sayin "there are no coins"?
I suspect the upcoming news from Gox to be very bullish...
But the fast recovery is beyond my understanding. 7% of btc is in the nature. Or worse, in the hand of few malicious people.

I know, the support seems so strong, but for the sake of this argument, forget a bit about the TA now, the Gox situation doesn't seem to make any sense, all Bitcoin businesses came out from day to night to tell us that mtgox is insolvent and we should forget about it and all funds are lost, just like that ? where were they before ? and what did they knew ? why aren't they sharing this with the public, and who were the holders of the ten thousands of coins dropped before we knew anything ?

and what about Roger when he advocated them 7 months ago ? he said that he looked to documents and statements from banks and it is really not up to gox and they were honest, today he came out to say sorry and that he was just doing them a favor!! and we should forget about gox and all funds just like that ?!! do you want me to believe this ?


this doesn't sum up, there is something and we need to know what it is, each time there is a speculation about gox the price is going to drop, until the situation is not all over and clear, we cant move on... well at least I cant...

My Bitcoin dreams usually do provide me with valuable insight into what is going on or what is around the corner. This is why I had the courage to post that particular one.

The meaning I took from it, is that there are forces at work (possibly Chinese cyber-bandits, possibly not) who are at work to bring Bitcoin down. Thus, at a time when everyone was claiming that the bottom was in ($531 bottom and we were up in high $600s when I posted the dream), the message from my subconscious mind left me in no doubts at all that there was yet more shit to come.

U can't really knock it when it ended up working out that way:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/i-had-another-bitcoin-speculation-dream-465422

Really? Bitcoin speculation has now become an exercise in dream interpretation? Where's Otoh and his astrological Bitcoin charts?

Please go on... don't interpret my comment as discouragement!

I am reviewing my thoughts, there are 2 voices in my head now, the first is telling me that there will be small drops but we will go up but the second and strongest one is telling me it is not over and that we will drop further and we will drop even less than 400.

I am trying to convince my self and gather my thoughts but the gox situation is not letting it go, I cant let it go and I am starting to think that we will sink even further... any thoughts ?

Probably Huobi volume is faked in large amounts.

But who is to say that well connected wealthy Chinese people couldn't have accounts on Bitstamp, BTC-e, etc? I could have an account on BTC China if I wanted.

You mentioned before about having a distaste for trading on ESP, I actually don't. Very often my best Bitcoin decisions come from subtle but persistent underlying feelings and intuitions and especially from dreams. In this sense, it is good to be nocturnal as when you are taking a light nap during the day is when you are most likely to remember and/or be aware of your dreams or subconscious ramblings. I have only just started learning about the very most basic principles of TA, but well before then, I was entering Bitcoin profitably and leaving the market profitably based on pure intuition. Had I been able to combine that with a bit of market savvy and an understanding of TA, I would have make a fkn killing.

I posted on this forum some time ago, that I dreamt of a big bunch of Chinese Cowboys rounding up a big bunch of cattle n bulls into a barn and hacking them to bits with power saws and the like. They then started betting against each other with lumps of prime steak ripped from the slaughtered cattle. I became aware of the tricks that the main cowboy would play and knew to lay my meagre strips of bacon low to avoid it getting roasted. I succeeded in 'saving my bacon' but laid it out so low that I never won any steak. I posted this on here when BItcoin was still up higher $700s or even $800 range. I don't expect it to inform anyone elses market outlook but it certainly informed mine and the symbology of it seems to have come good, right down to me laying my bacon too low and not winning any steak......and perhaps even the fact that the cowboys were Chinese.

I 'predicted' a $380 bottom, but determined not to lay my bacon out too low, I placed 60 BTC of buy-ins all at $391.34. No staggered tranches eating into my profits! You can imagine my disappointment at missing out on a possible $15K of pure profit by $9. But to be fair, this isn't the first time I have done this since the time when I caught the falling knife too high on the Dec 17th crash ($540) and then losing my nerve and taking a loss on the bounce.



 

You hold a balance bitcoins which are used as collateral to borrow usd to buy additional bitcoins. The additional bitcoins isn't like holding actual bitcoins - Rather you are holding a "position" which shows in a table with a profit/loss amount. The borrowed usd is contantly charging you interest so you want to close the position as soon as possible (on top of mitigating leverage risk).

Could you explain how that 2-1 margin trade actually works?

That's a good point. Here we are looking at Bitstamp's order book/chart and being grateful for how strong it is now that it has taken over from gox.  But meanwhile all the action is still happening on China's watch, and Chinese exchanges are doing 5x more volume (though some of that may be fake). This makes me a little concerned. Anyone else have thoughts on this?

You know why it makes you nocturnal in the US, and me nocturnal in the UK?

Because all the main market making n breaking action is coming from those of a Far East time zone persuasion.

What does that tell ya?

I've discovered a 'best of both worlds' strategy you can use during bull markets. You keep some coins on bitfinex - keep them as coins at all times (not usd), in your margin trading wallet. Then whenever there is a sharp movement downwards, you take an additional 2-1 margin trading position briefly during the volatility to make profits. Then convert your profits to bitcoins and add them to your stash. This way you have the ability to take advantage of volatility and downswings while still being able to keep all of your funds long in coins - it makes you much more able to commit to being long. I used this strategy during the october/november rally and used it to make a 50x gain rather than the 8x gain that everyone else was making. Of course this strategy also requires that you trust Bitfinex with those coins, and that you're not keeping them in cold storage, so it's not really "the best of both worlds".

I wouldn't want to be on party with day trading TAers. Boy, you're some boring group, worse than philosophers  

You guys are making things too complicated.

i played the daytrading game during the april 2013 bubble. put in a measly $2k, convinced my parents to put in $2k, and proceeded to daytrade like a madman and turned that $4k into $20k. it was the damnest thing: i woke up the morning of the crash, looked at the price which was trying to eat through $260 and thought to myself, "self, it went exponential compared to yesterday, i should sell and buy the dip." but it was 6 am and i'd just woken up. went downstairs and ate a bowl of cereal. came back upstairs and the price was $140 and gox was completely frozen. so sad...i promised myself i'd just buy and go long from then on, and i made a hell of a lot more holding my coins for half a year and selling at 900 than i ever did day trading now time to do it all again!

This is another reason why I'm always "quitting trading". - All the stress and disturbance of my sleep and life in general. I am basically noctural, and everyone I know HATES it. My head is so fried I cannot even do quick daytrading anymore like I used to. I cannot wait till I am in cold storage.

Back when I first started in Bitcoin and I made my first 500% profit one week, it wasn't from TA and following charts. It was from doing ninja warrior cowboy daytrading during crashes with the orderbooks, catching every high and every low on every little wave. It was FUN and REWARDING. I'd spend a couple hours, make my 200%, and then when the big movement was over I'd turn the trading stuff off and go away and live. I'd look at a slow chart that wasn't volatile and think "wtf am I supposed to do here. use ESP? No way. I'm outta here". Nowadays I do all this 'charting' and 'technical analysis' and stress out over long term trends that are nearly impossible to predict and there's always some black swan event to throw everything off from predictions. I am following news and staring at charts and screens and alerts nearly 24/7. The charts are in my DREAMS. It has ruined my life. When I finally get into cold storage, I am taking a big break.

Well, I live in CST timezone and also am a graduate student...I've pulled probably 8 all-nighters over the past 2 weeks watching bitcoin, attempting to average down and ride waves, etc. Seems like the spikes down always come between 3 and 4 am my time, its to the point where i can very comfortably pull an all-nighter without coffee or energy drinks.

Now I'm completely bought in for an average of $475/coin. I'm putting my coins in a cold wallet and will report back in April (seems like a month a lot of speculators enjoy referencing for some reason?)

Looking forward to returning to a normal sleep schedule, and quite proud of my work! Gonna be paying off all my student loans with these ones


edit: and thank you rpietila for all the advice you dispense in this thread. it seems like these forums are the equivalent of the troll box, and your voice is one of a spare few that speaks reason and legitimately tries to help people based on your views. Your advice on the time to buy being "when people are screaming that the system is broken and will fail" was the deciding factor on me pulling the trigger and putting about 40% of my remaining fiat in @ $405/coin the other night and effectively averaging down some hasty purchases I had made in the 650-700 range. enjoy your mansion, maybe i'll drop by some day and bring you some gifts from New Orleans

Mtgox's orderbook use to look like BSP orderbook right now all the time. Whoever sold those 10k coins at 579.3 has close to 6 million dollars sitting in his account. BFX orderbook IDK if they are still connected to BSP, but the amount of shorts are at a record high right now, that more money that BFX has to keep on BSP.  

I am following Risto, Mat and TERA predictions, and I cant seem to ignore these opinions, all of them have some validity and make some sense, but IMHO the market needs few days to decide.... it is really early to judge now...

each time interval is showing a different direction, now ignore 1h,2h,4h time intervals as they are for daily trading (quick in and out):

- judging from the 1d chart, the trend will reverse and the market will turn bullish soon. and the indicators are negative there
- judging from the 3d chart, there is still some room for going down, but the indicators are bearly negative (only 12 period is negative)
- judging from the 1w chart, we are just entering a bear market but indicators are really positive (both)


So if I you are planing on daily trading and making quick 2-5% profits (BTC term), the 4h chart is so great and predictions seems to be easier, but deciding which direction we are heading mid-term is really hard, this needs time and volume, we need the volume to stay at what it is at now or at least close to that, and after few days it will be clearer... although the opportunities for making small profits here and there can sum up and make some overall profit, but the risk is greater, in other words yes the big shot of 400 was a great opportunity that I cant seem to see repeating at the time being(except of there will be huge bad bad news).

I would like you to add some reviews on this opinion, what do you think and why ?

urghhhh.....that would be an entirely different matter from 16 USD of fresh liquidity landing in Bitstamp's account!