rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 319.

MatTheCat

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Quote from: seleme on February 25, 2014, 10:19:15 AM

But to do that and feel comfortably you need to actually believe BTC real value is higher than 100 USD or so Grin

What are you talking about?

BTC, USD, it is all just numbers. When I trade, I am looking to increase my numbers. Since USD is what I can most readily convert into EUR or GBP, that is my main priority. 2 months ago, 1 BTC would have (almost) bought me 1 Oz gold coin. Now I would need more than 2 BTC to buy me that same 1 Oz gold coin. Bitcoin is not a store of wealth. It is a wildly volatile and risky speculative gamble.

I am only interested in owning more BTC to the extent that it increases my pile of GBP.

Even when I spend BTC on real goods n services, the BTC price tracks GBP or USD price.

Right now, with the fiat I have on the exchanges, I could get me around 50 BTC, if the price hits the $200's, then I could get me 100 BTC. If however the price then dips and stagnates in the $100, I am not going to give two shits about being the proud owner of 100 BTC, as my net worth would have halved. I would be in a state of despair.

I am not too bothered in catching this bottom, if this does turn out to be the bottom. I will let the big money do that and hitch a ride on their tail-coats.

Whether I am bullish or still bearish at this point in time, remains to be seen.

seleme

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Quote from: hdbuck on February 25, 2014, 10:23:10 AM

Quote from: seleme on February 25, 2014, 10:19:15 AM

Quote from: MatTheCat on February 25, 2014, 10:10:57 AM

Quote from: hdbuck on February 25, 2014, 10:07:56 AM

fell you bud. but keep trying & at least you got 60BTCs potentially

That has always been my aim tbh. To keep my capital intact for when market reverses. Trading a bear market is no mean feat. By definition, far easier to lose money than to make money.

Your main problem is that all your trades are made with a goal of making USD, not BTC. Set yourself to maximize your BTC and even in bear market you at least cover some of your net worth loss, and with each new rally or mini rally that net worth loss turns to net gain.

But to do that and feel comfortably you need to actually believe BTC real value is higher than 100 USD or so Grin

yesterday i shotred 35 BTC and bought back today 45 BTC @470$ (was a little bit late cuz asleep)..

but now im not sure at what price to short again Undecided

I'm not sure either.. I made 50-60 BTC on this drop as it was obvious we are going down but usually I'm shit in trading BTC vs USD and made90% of my BTC trading alts, shares etc.. I'll probably not trade BTC I bought vs USD in last 3-4 days anymore, I don't feel comfortably selling at these prices. Hopefully some cheap alt opportunity will come these days.

hdbuck

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Quote from: seleme on February 25, 2014, 10:19:15 AM

Quote from: MatTheCat on February 25, 2014, 10:10:57 AM

Quote from: hdbuck on February 25, 2014, 10:07:56 AM

fell you bud. but keep trying & at least you got 60BTCs potentially

That has always been my aim tbh. To keep my capital intact for when market reverses. Trading a bear market is no mean feat. By definition, far easier to lose money than to make money.

Your main problem is that all your trades are made with a goal of making USD, not BTC. Set yourself to maximize your BTC and even in bear market you at least cover some of your net worth loss, and with each new rally or mini rally that net worth loss turns to net gain.

But to do that and feel comfortably you need to actually believe BTC real value is higher than 100 USD or so Grin

yesterday i shotred 35 BTC and bought back today 45 BTC @470$ (was a little bit late cuz asleep)..

but now im not sure at what price to short again Undecided

seleme

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Quote from: MatTheCat on February 25, 2014, 10:10:57 AM

Quote from: hdbuck on February 25, 2014, 10:07:56 AM

fell you bud. but keep trying & at least you got 60BTCs potentially

That has always been my aim tbh. To keep my capital intact for when market reverses. Trading a bear market is no mean feat. By definition, far easier to lose money than to make money.

Your main problem is that all your trades are made with a goal of making USD, not BTC. Set yourself to maximize your BTC and even in bear market you at least cover some of your net worth loss, and with each new rally or mini rally that net worth loss turns to net gain. Rpietilla didn't buy that castle before he acquired enough BTC to be worth of it when sold at good point.

But to do that and feel comfortably you need to actually believe BTC real value is higher than 100 USD or so Grin

MatTheCat

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Quote from: hdbuck on February 25, 2014, 10:07:56 AM

fell you bud. but keep trying & at least you got 60BTCs potentially

That has always been my aim tbh. To keep my capital intact for when market reverses. Trading a bear market is no mean feat. By definition, far easier to lose money than to make money.

hdbuck

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Quote from: MatTheCat on February 25, 2014, 10:00:59 AM

Quote from: TERA on February 25, 2014, 07:50:57 AM

Quote from: rpietila on February 25, 2014, 07:49:06 AM

Quote from: TERA on February 25, 2014, 07:47:39 AM

I did buy. I bought $400, but just sold $520. I will rebuy on 4 hour macd.

Why are you not already richer than me? Shocked

I've only been in bitcoin for almost a year and I started with a VERY small deposit. It was supposed to be just for fun and to experiment with arbitrage (which never happened).

Fuck me.

Despite Bitcoin doing pretty much what I said it would do I have done pretty shite with the trades.

Came out my $626 short at $550, fearing yet another Bitcoin retard rally eating into my profits, then watched the price slip to $500 cursing myself every step of the way. I then went to bed setting 60 BTC worth of buy-ins at $390 ($391.34, to be precise). No staggered buy-in tranches or nothing, just all or nothing bet. Woke up and Bitcoin was back at $500. Turns out I missed 'all' by $8.66, so got nothing. I am way too overly impulsive to really make a good trader and this demonstrates exactly the sort of school-boy error that I am destined to repeat and repeat ad infinitum.

Give me a shout when you are next weighing up entering the market if you would! (like when u feel certain about a trade as opposed to the addictive impulsive bets that we all partake in, despite the fact they normally come to nothing and/or lose us money).

fell you bud. but keep trying & at least you got 60BTCs potentially

seleme

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Quote from: TERA on February 25, 2014, 07:50:57 AM

Quote from: rpietila on February 25, 2014, 07:49:06 AM

Quote from: TERA on February 25, 2014, 07:47:39 AM

I did buy. I bought $400, but just sold $520. I will rebuy on 4 hour macd.

Why are you not already richer than me? Shocked

I've only been in bitcoin for almost a year and I started with a VERY small deposit. It was supposed to be just for fun and to experiment with arbitrage (which never happened).

you bought some at 400$ but that's far away from your entry as you said your first hits were around 460-470 and you said you bought bunch at 450 as you thought that's local bottom.

MatTheCat

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Quote from: TERA on February 25, 2014, 07:50:57 AM

Quote from: rpietila on February 25, 2014, 07:49:06 AM

Quote from: TERA on February 25, 2014, 07:47:39 AM

I did buy. I bought $400, but just sold $520. I will rebuy on 4 hour macd.

Why are you not already richer than me? Shocked

I've only been in bitcoin for almost a year and I started with a VERY small deposit. It was supposed to be just for fun and to experiment with arbitrage (which never happened).

Fuck me.

Despite Bitcoin doing pretty much what I said it would do I have done pretty shite with the trades.

Came out my $626 short at $550, fearing yet another Bitcoin retard rally eating into my profits, then watched the price slip to $500 cursing myself every step of the way. I then went to bed setting 60 BTC worth of buy-ins at $390 ($391.34, to be precise). No staggered buy-in tranches or nothing, just all or nothing bet. Woke up and Bitcoin was back at $500. Turns out I missed 'all' by $8.66, so got nothing. I am way too overly impulsive to really make a good trader and this demonstrates exactly the sort of school-boy error that I am destined to repeat and repeat ad infinitum.

Give me a shout when you are next weighing up entering the market if you would! (like when u feel certain about a trade as opposed to the addictive impulsive bets that we all partake in, despite the fact they normally come to nothing and/or lose us money).

TERA

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Quote from: rpietila on February 25, 2014, 07:49:06 AM

Quote from: TERA on February 25, 2014, 07:47:39 AM

I did buy. I bought $400, but just sold $520. I will rebuy on 4 hour macd.

Why are you not already richer than me? Shocked

I've only been in bitcoin for almost a year and I started with a VERY small deposit. It was supposed to be just for fun and to experiment with arbitrage (which never happened).

rpietila

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Quote from: TERA on February 25, 2014, 07:47:39 AM

I did buy. I bought $400, but just sold $520. I will rebuy on 4 hour macd.

Why are you not already richer than me? Shocked

TERA

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Quote from: rpietila on February 25, 2014, 05:46:27 AM

Quote from: TERA on February 25, 2014, 05:39:32 AM

What if trendline analysis and patterns from the past fail to predict the future because the present is not the past and a logarithmic increase of 10 times per year is mathematically impossible to sustain.

Weren't you also a bear? BUY NOW.

Fact is that they did, quite exactly. Best traders made a lot of money and even average ones came out ahead.

I did buy. I bought $400, but just sold $520. I will rebuy on 4 hour macd.

rpietila

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Quote from: porcupine87 on February 25, 2014, 07:25:46 AM

Quote from: rpietila on February 25, 2014, 05:36:47 AM

This is Bitcoin. There is no realistic place to set the price. Gox set the low of 91 and is now down. BTCe was 102. Bitstamp now 400, after some analysts questioned the validity of 382 because Gox that time was 445.

Daily average low of Bitstamp in December was 517(!). Today is lower, so counts as the final wave down for me.

^- It is a mess. Buy your coins at 400-500 if you can and don't count the waves when there are cheap coins around and you can buy.

So you mean the TA could not forecast the guy on btc-e which sold 8000coins at once or that the gox price will get to 1/5 of the stamp/btc-e price?

Because these things are outside of the normal TA applicability (outliers, "black swans"), you should be reasonable when demanding that "this wave has to go lower than 382" for example. If it does in a daily chart, it is good enough. Unless you want to risk being left behind.

porcupine87

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hm

Quote from: rpietila on February 25, 2014, 05:36:47 AM

Quote from: chessnut on February 25, 2014, 04:54:54 AM

Rpietila, I must doubt that this is the bottom. look at the daily chart, this is just one big red candle stick. any other movement of comparable significance took 3 days to resolve.

I believe we must pass 431 and some.

Look a the chart on a 15min scale, there is a wedge forming between 505 and 431. this is the end of a third wave (the most aggressive species) which is followed by a fourth (correction) and then a fifth to cap the larger movement at all time lows. the most reliable rule of EW analysis is that the fourth wave will not surpass the extreme of the fourth wave of one lower fractal. this is the 500 level, a doubly important level. there are desperate people waiting at 500. fourth waves are typically wedges.

I do believe the night is not over, there will be a fifth wave that trickles down to 400, probably less. we need to bottom in mid 300s in order for wave C to exceed the price extreme of wave B.

we will see in the next 12 hours.

This is Bitcoin. There is no realistic place to set the price. Gox set the low of 91 and is now down. BTCe was 102. Bitstamp now 400, after some analysts questioned the validity of 382 because Gox that time was 445.

Daily average low of Bitstamp in December was 517(!). Today is lower, so counts as the final wave down for me.

^- It is a mess. Buy your coins at 400-500 if you can and don't count the waves when there are cheap coins around and you can buy.

So you mean the TA could not forecast the guy on btc-e which sold 8000coins at once or that the gox price will get to 1/5 of the stamp/btc-e price?

xxnewbiecoinerxx

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Quote from: tablemanic on February 24, 2014, 09:37:01 PM

Quote from: rpietila on February 24, 2014, 06:31:20 PM

I just wanted to tell you that I am finalizing the purchase of Malla Manor this week, and we will have a party there starting Friday.

Malla will be (probably) the first high-class Bitcoin retreat centre in the world. 100% owned by me, it offers 5000 sqm floor area (some under renovation) and currently 127 acres of land. The property is in the middle of beautiful countryside in Estonia, just 1 hour from Tallinn airport.

Very impressive! I've been watching your thread for a long time although I haven't been active on this forum. I'm sad to hear that your thinking about leaving the forum, so I just want to thank you for the quality of the posts that you have provided and wish you the best.

+1

e4xit

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Quote from: chessnut on February 25, 2014, 06:27:15 AM

Just bought back in @500. nobody turns down sound advice from Rpietila the Vassal of the Mighty Goat.

chessnut

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Just bought back in @500. nobody turns down sound advice from Rpietila the Vassal of the Mighty Goat.

and if it hits 350, well I wanted those coins out now anyway.

this movement is the result of a wedge, the coil before the last breath of a wave. when we pass 600, that to me will be a green light to the next all time highs.

give it 3 days to bottom, if it has not done so already.

good to be back in coins.

Miz4r

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Watch out for the short squeeze guys, can be painful. Wink

Queeq

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I think this kind of statement depicts the transformation of mind which is going on in bitcoin community.
http://newsbtc.com/2014/02/24/republished-joint-statement-regarding-mt-gox/
So I guess we would not go much lower or it would not last long. So better buy now around 450.

sumantso

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