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Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 320. (Read 907212 times)
I hope there is another leg down to cross into $300s (yes, getting greedier )
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What if trendline analysis and patterns from the past fail to predict the future because the present is not the past and a logarithmic increase of 10 times per year is mathematically impossible to sustain.
Of course that trendline will be slowed down eventually but its very possible to see x10 for this year and maybe 2015 aswell
edit: rpietila, mind telling us how many btc u got in total?
Rpietilla - is that a wink wink nudge nudge that the Vassal of the Mighty Goat has begun to pump? 
I never enjoyed being a bear, and probably hardly made BTC1,000 with my calls since I was right all the time but execution was complicated..
Oh you only made a thousand BTC profit from this, what a shame... I never even had 1000 BTC in total lol, not even half of that.
Thank you. It is the delicate balance of risk and security.
What if trendline analysis and patterns from the past fail to predict the future because the present is not the past and a logarithmic increase of 10 times per year is mathematically impossible to sustain.
Weren't you also a bear? BUY NOW.
Fact is that they did, quite exactly. Best traders made a lot of money and even average ones came out ahead.
Rpietilla - is that a wink wink nudge nudge that the Vassal of the Mighty Goat has begun to pump?
I never enjoyed being a bear, and probably hardly made BTC1,000 with my calls since I was right all the time but execution was complicated..
Oh you only made a thousand BTC profit from this, what a shame... I never even had 1000 BTC in total lol, not even half of that.
What if trendline analysis and patterns from the past fail to predict the future because the present is not the past and a logarithmic increase of 10 times per year is mathematically impossible to sustain.
Rpietilla - is that a wink wink nudge nudge that the Vassal of the Mighty Goat has begun to pump?
I never enjoyed being a bear, and probably hardly made BTC1,000 with my calls since I was right all the time but execution was complicated..
Rpietila, I must doubt that this is the bottom. look at the daily chart, this is just one big red candle stick. any other movement of comparable significance took 3 days to resolve.
I believe we must pass 431 and some.
Look a the chart on a 15min scale, there is a wedge forming between 505 and 431. this is the end of a third wave (the most aggressive species) which is followed by a fourth (correction) and then a fifth to cap the larger movement at all time lows. the most reliable rule of EW analysis is that the fourth wave will not surpass the extreme of the fourth wave of one lower fractal. this is the 500 level, a doubly important level. there are desperate people waiting at 500. fourth waves are typically wedges.
I do believe the night is not over, there will be a fifth wave that trickles down to 400, probably less. we need to bottom in mid 300s in order for wave C to exceed the price extreme of wave B.
we will see in the next 12 hours.
I believe we must pass 431 and some.
Look a the chart on a 15min scale, there is a wedge forming between 505 and 431. this is the end of a third wave (the most aggressive species) which is followed by a fourth (correction) and then a fifth to cap the larger movement at all time lows. the most reliable rule of EW analysis is that the fourth wave will not surpass the extreme of the fourth wave of one lower fractal. this is the 500 level, a doubly important level. there are desperate people waiting at 500. fourth waves are typically wedges.
I do believe the night is not over, there will be a fifth wave that trickles down to 400, probably less. we need to bottom in mid 300s in order for wave C to exceed the price extreme of wave B.
we will see in the next 12 hours.
This is Bitcoin. There is no realistic place to set the price. Gox set the low of 91 and is now down. BTCe was 102. Bitstamp now 400, after some analysts questioned the validity of 382 because Gox that time was 445.
Daily average low of Bitstamp in December was 517(!). Today is lower, so counts as the final wave down for me.
^- It is a mess. Buy your coins at 400-500 if you can and don't count the waves when there are cheap coins around and you can buy.
But the price already bottomed at $400 on Bitstamp, passing the $430 mark. Or are you looking at BTCe?
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yeah I am looking at BTCe, Bitstamp is a little different. there was a $40 gap between stamp and BTCe today, and a $100 gap between china and BTCe. The Huobi charts are not oversold. I htink that is where the last push will come from, china.
Rpietilla - is that a wink wink nudge nudge that the Vassal of the Mighty Goat has begun to pump?
dont you think we need a clear picture from the Gox situation (beside the TA) to move on ? what are your thoughts about gox anyway, do you think they just run up with the money ? I have a feeling that this will turn better than we all think....
I didn't say that we will move on, but I also don't think that sub-500 will last for very long. Better buy now.
The stability will be found around 500, or 600, 650, 700 is anyone's guess. But my gut says 400 is too low for stability, there are also bullish forces in play, for example many of the Gox depositors will need to decide whether to replenish some of their stock.
Anyway no matter how low we go now, the capitulation is triggered, which means that once we start to go up, there is no looking back
Rpietila, I must doubt that this is the bottom. look at the daily chart, this is just one big red candle stick. any other movement of comparable significance took 3 days to resolve.
I believe we must pass 431 and some.
Look a the chart on a 15min scale, there is a wedge forming between 505 and 431. this is the end of a third wave (the most aggressive species) which is followed by a fourth (correction) and then a fifth to cap the larger movement at all time lows. the most reliable rule of EW analysis is that the fourth wave will not surpass the extreme of the fourth wave of one lower fractal. this is the 500 level, a doubly important level. there are desperate people waiting at 500. fourth waves are typically wedges.
I do believe the night is not over, there will be a fifth wave that trickles down to 400, probably less. we need to bottom in mid 300s in order for wave C to exceed the price extreme of wave B.
we will see in the next 12 hours.
Lest we forget that the yankees are yet to wake up!
I believe we must pass 431 and some.
Look a the chart on a 15min scale, there is a wedge forming between 505 and 431. this is the end of a third wave (the most aggressive species) which is followed by a fourth (correction) and then a fifth to cap the larger movement at all time lows. the most reliable rule of EW analysis is that the fourth wave will not surpass the extreme of the fourth wave of one lower fractal. this is the 500 level, a doubly important level. there are desperate people waiting at 500. fourth waves are typically wedges.
I do believe the night is not over, there will be a fifth wave that trickles down to 400, probably less. we need to bottom in mid 300s in order for wave C to exceed the price extreme of wave B.
we will see in the next 12 hours.
Lest we forget that the yankees are yet to wake up!
But the price already bottomed at $400 on Bitstamp, passing the $430 mark. Or are you looking at BTCe?
I just wanted to tell you that I am finalizing the purchase of Malla Manor this week, and we will have a party there starting Friday.
Malla will be (probably) the first high-class Bitcoin retreat centre in the world. 100% owned by me, it offers 5000 sqm floor area (some under renovation) and currently 127 acres of land. The property is in the middle of beautiful countryside in Estonia, just 1 hour from Tallinn airport.
Malla will be (probably) the first high-class Bitcoin retreat centre in the world. 100% owned by me, it offers 5000 sqm floor area (some under renovation) and currently 127 acres of land. The property is in the middle of beautiful countryside in Estonia, just 1 hour from Tallinn airport.
Congratz on your purchase rpietila! I like the concept of forming a Bitcoin retreat centre, for some reason it reminds me of Gurdjieff's Institute at Le Prieure at Fontainebleau back in the '20s.
Congratz on your purchase rpietila !
Rpietila, I must doubt that this is the bottom. look at the daily chart, this is just one big red candle stick. any other movement of comparable significance took 3 days to resolve.
I believe we must pass 431 and some.
Look a the chart on a 15min scale, there is a wedge forming between 505 and 431. this is the end of a third wave (the most aggressive species) which is followed by a fourth (correction) and then a fifth to cap the larger movement at all time lows. the most reliable rule of EW analysis is that the fourth wave will not surpass the extreme of the fourth wave of one lower fractal. this is the 500 level, a doubly important level. there are desperate people waiting at 500. fourth waves are typically wedges.
I do believe the night is not over, there will be a fifth wave that trickles down to 400, probably less. we need to bottom in mid 300s in order for wave C to exceed the price extreme of wave B.
we will see in the next 12 hours.
Lest we forget that the yankees are yet to wake up!
I believe we must pass 431 and some.
Look a the chart on a 15min scale, there is a wedge forming between 505 and 431. this is the end of a third wave (the most aggressive species) which is followed by a fourth (correction) and then a fifth to cap the larger movement at all time lows. the most reliable rule of EW analysis is that the fourth wave will not surpass the extreme of the fourth wave of one lower fractal. this is the 500 level, a doubly important level. there are desperate people waiting at 500. fourth waves are typically wedges.
I do believe the night is not over, there will be a fifth wave that trickles down to 400, probably less. we need to bottom in mid 300s in order for wave C to exceed the price extreme of wave B.
we will see in the next 12 hours.
Lest we forget that the yankees are yet to wake up!
I just wanted to tell you that I am finalizing the purchase of Malla Manor this week, and we will have a party there starting Friday.
Malla will be (probably) the first high-class Bitcoin retreat centre in the world. 100% owned by me, it offers 5000 sqm floor area (some under renovation) and currently 127 acres of land. The property is in the middle of beautiful countryside in Estonia, just 1 hour from Tallinn airport.
Malla will be (probably) the first high-class Bitcoin retreat centre in the world. 100% owned by me, it offers 5000 sqm floor area (some under renovation) and currently 127 acres of land. The property is in the middle of beautiful countryside in Estonia, just 1 hour from Tallinn airport.
Congratz on your purchase rpietila! I like the concept of forming a Bitcoin retreat centre, for some reason it reminds me of Gurdjieff's Institute at Le Prieure at Fontainebleau back in the '20s.
Hi rpietila. What are your thoughts on the sudden and short nature of this drop and subsequent rise? I expected a much longer and drawn out drop, or drift, down the bottom. It doesn't seem like there has really been enough time and volume to actually confirm the bottom (even if it is bottom). It dropped from 640 to 400 over the span of one day. Compare this with 2013 when it dropped from 100 to 66 over the span of a week or two and spent 3 days testing the bottom of 66. Perhaps it needs to spend more time trading sideways before it can recover. It might test that bottom again, or, that might not even be the bottom and this might merely be the first leg of a downtrend. Would that be ok with you? What are you thoughts?
I think this was the bottom, and we are not going any lower (at least not really). A longish bottoming process in 400-500 range will have to confirm it in the following days though.
Everything fits in the final capitulation scenario. Now just make sure you load up 100% before we start going up. Next target $7000 by Midsummer (if it happens, I lose a certain bet..
)dont you think we need a clear picture from the Gox situation (beside the TA) to move on ? what are your thoughts about gox anyway, do you think they just run up with the money ? I have a feeling that this will turn better than we all think....
Hi rpietila. What are your thoughts on the sudden and short nature of this drop and subsequent rise? I expected a much longer and drawn out drop, or drift, down the bottom. It doesn't seem like there has really been enough time and volume to actually confirm the bottom (even if it is bottom). It dropped from 640 to 400 over the span of one day. Compare this with 2013 when it dropped from 100 to 66 over the span of a week or two and spent 3 days testing the bottom of 66. Perhaps it needs to spend more time trading sideways before it can recover. It might test that bottom again, or, that might not even be the bottom and this might merely be the first leg of a downtrend. Would that be ok with you? What are you thoughts?
I think this was the bottom, and we are not going any lower (at least not really). A longish bottoming process in 400-500 range will have to confirm it in the following days though.
Everything fits in the final capitulation scenario. Now just make sure you load up 100% before we start going up. Next target $7000 by Midsummer (if it happens, I lose a certain bet..
) Hi rpietila. What are your thoughts on the sudden and short nature of this drop and subsequent rise? I expected a much longer and drawn out drop, or drift, down the bottom. It doesn't seem like there has really been enough time and volume to actually confirm the bottom (even if it is bottom). It dropped from 640 to 400 over the span of one day. Compare this with 2013 when it dropped from 100 to 66 over the span of a week or two and spent 3 days testing the bottom of 66. Perhaps it needs to spend more time trading sideways before it can recover. It might test that bottom again, or, that might not even be the bottom and this might merely be the first leg of a downtrend. Would that be ok with you? What are you thoughts?
First leg of downtrend? haven't we been trending down for quite a while now? But yeah, I would say it feels like we are not going much lower anymore since going through 382$ would really be bad... Also the one day macd has been on the edge of turning green for atleast two times now and both times just on the edge a new big drop has occured. rpietila - I hope you build lots of secret pathways, boobie-traps and hiding places that lead to clues and fragments of information that unlock keys and passwords to all your hidden treasure. make it a real mystery mansion! also make one room a super computer and mine some coins!
anyway, looks like the time to buy is approaching in the coming days, if not only to get the hell out of the exchanges.
I was correct to predict a wedge over 500, and it has just broken a major trend line and is exploring new lows.
two things to keep in mind from an EW point of view, this wave C must pass the extreme of wave B. (431) and some. I believe that we will therefore see $3xx coins.
also, having broken out from a wedge, the EW analysis implies that the coming movement is a terminal movement (as we hopefully guess). This is super exciting, having seen the charts obey some really fundamental EW principles so far.
for the sake of alternation, I expect that lows will be retested after the coming low.
anyway, looks like the time to buy is approaching in the coming days, if not only to get the hell out of the exchanges.
I was correct to predict a wedge over 500, and it has just broken a major trend line and is exploring new lows.
two things to keep in mind from an EW point of view, this wave C must pass the extreme of wave B. (431) and some. I believe that we will therefore see $3xx coins.
also, having broken out from a wedge, the EW analysis implies that the coming movement is a terminal movement (as we hopefully guess). This is super exciting, having seen the charts obey some really fundamental EW principles so far.
for the sake of alternation, I expect that lows will be retested after the coming low.
Good analysis chessnut. If it wasn't for this thread I probably would have bought a lot more at $600+ and I'm glad I didn't. Keep up with the good work!
Hi rpietila. What are your thoughts on the sudden and short nature of this drop and subsequent rise? I expected a much longer and drawn out drop, or drift, down the bottom. It doesn't seem like there has really been enough time and volume to actually confirm the bottom (even if it is bottom). It dropped from 640 to 400 over the span of one day. Compare this with 2013 when it dropped from 100 to 66 over the span of a week or two and spent 3 days testing the bottom of 66. Perhaps it needs to spend more time trading sideways before it can recover. It might test that bottom again, or, that might not even be the bottom and this might merely be the first leg of a downtrend. Would that be ok with you? What are you thoughts?
Wow rpietila, that is super cool place! 
You need Rolls-Royce too! Maybe Phantom?
http://suchen.mobile.de/auto-inserat/rolls-royce-phantom-aus-liebhaberhand-sehr-gepflegt-starnberg/184545291.html?lang=en
Please hire me as your chaffeur if you do this, I enjoy driving nice cars and I'm a good driver also:D Hope you stay on the forum and still update your TA and predictions! You need Rolls-Royce too! Maybe Phantom?
http://suchen.mobile.de/auto-inserat/rolls-royce-phantom-aus-liebhaberhand-sehr-gepflegt-starnberg/184545291.html?lang=en
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