Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 326. (Read 907227 times)

Hi Mat, we've spoken before.
I'm rather disturbed by that statement - not its content per se but if you genuinely think this, why bother spending time here.  As someone commented a few days back: "perhaps you don't like classical music, but would you spend you time on a classical music forum, where people love classical music, telling them they were wrong and had bad taste." 

Personally, I don't think BTC is a "terrible prospect" but I do think its under fire at present, probably for doing so well recently (or as we call it in Australia "tall poppy syndrome") but I think it is wise to keep our judgements in perspective.

Yup. My turning bearish right at the 'double top' of the market back in early Dec was all based on instinct, spooked out dreams etc. The first chapter of any Tech Analysis for Dummies type book would have told me that Bitcoin was screaming bearish downturn ahead at investors back then.....large price rises on increasingly low volume, wildly overbought, the 'double top' itself etc, but only I hadn't read any such book and didn't even know what a MACD was at this time. Yet there were 'veteran' Bitcoiners whose post history on here goes right back to single digit days were telling me to hold, and saying stuff like "sell now and cry when you buy back in at $1300". As I said before, this market is heaving to the brim with dumb money.



Bitcoin is once again looking like a terrible prospect. Bounce to $630 or whatever from crash makes sense as it conforms to market psychology. Those buyer who then took Bitcoin all the way up to $712 however, are now sitting on a lot of expensive Bitcoin that they may feel compelled to dump as buying pressure retreats increasingly further back.

That's exactly right....they are the same thing.  But we tend to use the euphemism 'gut' to signal a strong emotion because we wouldn't want strong emotions to get in the way of decision making would we

Anyway, let's hope he didn't buy in.

At present there is bidding to the downside by little depth after a quiet day. This is likely confirming that the recent rally was really withdraw symptoms from bitstamp, that traded up to a $40 arbitrage with BTCe after withdrawals were back in use.

By now most needy withdrawals are likely to have been completed, BTCe=stamp, and the down trend has likely resumed.

This is a nice shorting opportunity for day traders or traders looking to reduce.

when the volume comes in the next trading session the price is likey to move more than $100 in order to test $550.

Well I'm confused what this person means about their emotions versus "their gut". I thought gut was emotions. If this person had said "my emotions versus my brain" then I would understand more.

Unfortunately, our post-modern lives are very confusing and 'emotions' have become derided as something that takes away rather than adds to our decision-making.  Crime prevention officers often tell people to trust their instincts (that darkened street or quiet car park that makes you uncomfortable) because we spent 100 000s years of evolution trusting our instinct to keep us from danger.  But rather than trust our emotions as a useful part of the decision making process we applaud isolated rationality.


By way of coincidence here's a post from another thread - someone confused about their emotional intelligence:

I remember back in my early days of trading I'd have these "feelings" and I'd ignore them and later learn that I should have listened to them after I had taken a loss. Once I learned about technical trading, after studying some charts, I realized that these "feelings" I used to have actually corresponded exactly to TA indicators like MACD and RSI.

Well, 4 hours has been and gone and 750 wasn't broken although the rally to 712 was nevertheless impressive, regardless of the sentiment that drove it.  It's interesting how (apart from Gox, of course, where there is no real motivation to trade since neither funds not BTC can be removed only trading fees) that volume is dead across all the exchanges at present: the herd is waiting for a leader.


Yes, that's correct.  But all our life can be regarded as the sum of electrical signals caused by bio-chemical reactions.

What is even more interesting is the impact of these extremes upon decision making when the extremes are experienced more frequently.  In 'normal' life such extremes are tempered by a period of first numbness, then normalisation and finally reflection - perhaps if you are a professional trader you may be acclimatised to such sudden and extreme states of mind.  But the majority of small holding BTC traders (of whom I am one) are not used to experiencing these extremes so rapidly.  A 'thinking strategy' must be employed.

It's interesting that some people say you must be emotionless to trade, detach yourself from your feelings.

I disagree and I put one user on ignore the other day because he insisted "feelings are for women" - this macho behaviour generally leads to serious mental health issues.    In fact, I would suggest it is more productive (and healthy) to listen to your feelings when trading - explore them, acknowledge them, understand them. Then move onto to other modes of thinking - research, risk assessment, benefits, creativity.  Only when you have considered everything can you make a decision that can be regarded as fully considered.

Is this detachment or complete immersion?

                                                                                                                                                                 

yeah....that is the problem with applying conventional TA parameters to Bitcoin.

The whole surge up in price was driven by a relative handful of very large orders. Perhaps in this sense, the volume bars are more a measure of individual idiosyncratic behaviour than aggregate market psychology, and as every good trader knows, Bitcoin is full to the brim with 'dumb money'. For this reason, I will not consider entering market until >$700 is confirmed as support.

Yes I think give it 4 hours.

a rally of $200 from 500 is a nice move, and it must consolidate.

the volume is impressive, although the volume distribution of the move tells a story about it's indecisiveness.

Thieves tend to be far more interested in the bottom line other than ideological values and anyone who doesn't heavily involve themselves with following this market would take one look at it and think, "it's a sell". The fact that we may be on the cusp, or indeed the middle of a trend reversal may not occur to thief, technologically adept or otherwise. Their main concerns however will more likely be how to convert thier Bitcoin into fiat without raising flags all over the place. For this reason alone, I would expect the sell-off pressure of these stolen 10K coins (or whatever the true figure is) to be gradual as opposed to sudden.


You think?

What strikes me most about this rally, is that for the first time in a long time, the volume on the upsurge was very large. Notably larger than on the previous bounce. Having said that, we still haven't breached and confirmed support at/above any of the schoolboy resistance levels and the large volume could be attributed to a delirious reaction to having the shadow of suspended BTC withdrawals lifted from Bitstamp. The next few 4 hour bars should provide a better picture.

An impressive rally of nearly $200 on bitstamp probably caused by both the 500 figure and renewed ability to withdraw.

I suppose that it should take at least 24hours before the pressure of buy orders of those eager to withdraw are is satisfied.

$200 is a fair move and should cap the rally, although perhaps we will have a bargain selling opportunity in a few hours creeping up to 700-730.

The move should be capped by 750, a weekly point of resistance. It would take a lot of force to drive it over that point, 800 being critical resistance.

Too many people are calling for a long term bottom at $500, their hopes have been strengthened at this point. The longs may take a few days
to unwind and retest 500.

If the move lacks momentum I would expect a wedge to form above 500 before ultimately piercing it.

you really think that the thieves who managed theirselves to rob those coins would actually have done it just to get fiat?

hah! exactly

(sorry, a non-post, but I'm an avid lurker of this thread)

Not to mention that most of the time it indeed is stupid

for me this crash has been another lesson about the need of being bearish when you feel overbullish. But i'm not sure if i will ever learn it.
it takes balls even to sell at an ATH.

Exactly. And then the opposite biochemical brew will begin to dominate (those neuro peptides of grief, despair and depression). And once the chemical mind can barely remember what the bull, dopamine chemistry felt like - and begins to believe that it was all an illusion and delusion, and attention/funds drifts to more exciting pleasure potential activities....out of nowhere will arise the full-on hit of crack that sends all into ecstasy once again....the chemical mind once again believing that "we got it now" and this too will never end.  And so it goes...

To ride this dragon and still make wise decisions takes lots of practice, detachment and desensitization. Some will never be able to do it, and will be left in painful spasms on the sidewalk - and some will ride the wave in equanimity and mastery. And most of us somewhere in between. 

Fair do's.

You have certainly played a blinder with your forecasts since you called a sub $500 crash back in December when Bitcoin was still over $1000.

Now that the annoyance at myself for not capitalising on this opportunity has subsided, and I am looking at the charts with a more relaxed frame of mind (although I don't do exponential trendlines or anything else that involves getting spreadsheets out), I suspect that you may be right. If the manic reactionary psychology has died down in me (who never participated in bounce), I am guessing similar biochemical normalisations will be occurring in the heads of other Bitcoin market participants......

....and then there are the 40K BTC stolen SR2 coins at large. If the thieves are stupid, these will be cashed out rapidly and the market will crash horribly. But more likely, this will represent a gradual and steady selling pressure over the coming weeks.

The more time passes, the more I think Tzupy's wave count might be spot on, and we are in the 2nd 1/3 of wave C. So we're going up a little bit before going down a lot, again.

I am fully prepared to wait until the end of March to see the final capitulation. Many things can happen meanwhile - we can see a rally, for example. In end of December, I sold a lot at 600-700, followed by a rally to 990. Still in the grand scheme of things my prognosis seems to have been accurate so far.

The daily average of Dec 18 (the day of the great dip to 382), was 527. Today is the lowest daily average since that, at 615. Trendline is at 682, so we are a meager -0.045 below the trend. Last capitulation bottom was -0.341.

Just assuming that we get to the same oversold condition of -0.341 in March 31, 2014, the figures would be:
- trendline price: 938
- actual price (daily average): 428