rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 327.

cAPSLOCK

legendary

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Whimsical Pants

Quote from: rpietila on February 14, 2014, 08:19:21 AM

Be wary for Bitstamp price. It is much higher than the other functioning exchanges now. If Gox finds all the bitcoins and withdrawals are resumed, they will be sold in other exchanges (bitstamp being the only one with fiat withdraw option) with massive damage to bitcoin price.

I don't think Gox is going to "find all the coins". At least I think it is likely they lost quite a bit. That plus the seizure of their bank account and regulatory problems means they might have to replace rather than find, both coins AND USD.

I think the Mt Gox price reflects the overall sentiment that they may be insolvent... I don't think the arbitrage will last very long if it turns out they are not.

This is a rare opportunity, but the trick is divining what the actual opportunity is. Wink

MatTheCat

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Quote from: rpietila on February 14, 2014, 12:47:33 PM

What makes you think that trend reversal should occur on high volume on this short a timescale?

We are not clear yet. I sold between 650-700 and have more sales going on. I have admittedly always been early with my selling during this bear trend, but now I am only selling the coins I bought back cheaper.

Seems to be a violent reaction to the oversold condition.

All will be revealed in the coming hours. Bitcoin right now is wildly overbought......a trend along the $700 line followed by a brutal sell-off, or just a plain old brutal sell-off that that skips the water-testing trend phase and i guess you will be proven right. But anything less than a vicious sell-off down to low $600s, high $500s and I would be tempted to change my stance from bear to bull...at least for a little bit to see how things progress.

On the otherhand, from my TA 101 skills, I wouldn't expect the bottom in such a long winded (in Bitcoin terms) bear trend to come with such a flash and a bang, but rather be ground out over a period of time, offering plenty opportunity to pick up coins near the true basement. This holds true for most markets that are in the condition that Bitstamp has been in for the past 5-6 weeks and certainly holds true for the bear stagnation periods in the aftermath of the June 2011 and April 2013 crashes. If $540 does indeed turn out to be the bottom, market participants would have had a tiny frame of opportunity to pick up coins close to this range on both recent occasions when this price range was visited.

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

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What makes you think that trend reversal should occur on high volume on this short a timescale?

We are not clear yet. I sold between 650-700 and have more sales going on. I have admittedly always been early with my selling during this bear trend, but now I am only selling the coins I bought back cheaper.

Seems to be a violent reaction to the oversold condition.

ADD: You have to take into account the risk that you are wrong. In normal conditions, the risk is that you lose out on an explosive upside. Here it is that you lose out on a dip to $102 or $302, which already happened in other exchanges. Under certain scenarios, BS will join the crowd, and you double your coins. Under no scenario, it is going to ATH overnight.

I also presume that BS reaction was exacerbated by the unwillingness of people to deposit when there is no withdrawal, which makes it prone to a demand shock.

MatTheCat

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Quote from: rpietila on February 14, 2014, 08:19:21 AM

I think it is going as planned. We will need to spend some time in these levels so that nobody believes that it will go to 800 again in the immediate future.

Unless people believe that it is good to sell the coins for 400, they will not do it Wink

Also the buyers need to be tamed to not buy the flashcrashes. Time is an answer to these issues.

Be wary for Bitstamp price. It is much higher than the other functioning exchanges now. If Gox finds all the bitcoins and withdrawals are resumed, they will be sold in other exchanges (bitstamp being the only one with fiat withdraw option) with massive damage to bitcoin price.

Being a bear who never bought in on the crash, as much as I would like the emboldened statement above to be true, this bounce is occurring on about as high volume on Bitstamp as I can remember.

If this can test and hold above $700, this could be the trend reversal.

mmitech

legendary

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things you own end up owning you

Quote from: vokain on February 14, 2014, 11:37:41 AM

Quote from: rpietila on February 14, 2014, 08:19:21 AM

I think it is going as planned. We will need to spend some time in these levels so that nobody believes that it will go to 800 again in the immediate future.

Unless people believe that it is good to sell the coins for 400, they will not do it Wink

Also the buyers need to be tamed to not buy the flashcrashes. Time is an answer to these issues.

Be wary for Bitstamp price. It is much higher than the other functioning exchanges now. If Gox finds all the bitcoins and withdrawals are resumed, they will be sold in other exchanges (bitstamp being the only one with fiat withdraw option) with massive damage to bitcoin price.

ADD: If anyone thought that Bitstamp is somehow Slovenian, the following excerpt from open orders shatters the belief:

Sell Feb. 14, 2014, noon 30.00000000 $648.20 $19,446.00 Open

It is impossible to think that anyone else but the British would have specifically coded their software to show "noon" for 12:00 GMT.

Probably there's also "midnight", try it out Cheesy

They're British but they have a Slovenian banking partner. You can also tell by their wiring information if it's not somewhere on their website

they are Slovenians, I know most some them personally (met in Bitcoin meetings here in Slovenia), starting from the founder, it is true that their operation is based in UK, I think it has something to do with Legal certainty in UK than in Slovenia...

but this doesn't matter, what matters most to me is the strong vision they have, and their consistence on improving their communication with the customer and the timely efficient service and the simplicity of the site that brought the success.

I personally, If I would change my Job to start dealing with Bitcoin as a career, I would be more than happy to work for them...

vokain

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Quote from: rpietila on February 14, 2014, 08:19:21 AM

I think it is going as planned. We will need to spend some time in these levels so that nobody believes that it will go to 800 again in the immediate future.

Unless people believe that it is good to sell the coins for 400, they will not do it Wink

Also the buyers need to be tamed to not buy the flashcrashes. Time is an answer to these issues.

Be wary for Bitstamp price. It is much higher than the other functioning exchanges now. If Gox finds all the bitcoins and withdrawals are resumed, they will be sold in other exchanges (bitstamp being the only one with fiat withdraw option) with massive damage to bitcoin price.

ADD: If anyone thought that Bitstamp is somehow Slovenian, the following excerpt from open orders shatters the belief:

Sell Feb. 14, 2014, noon 30.00000000 $648.20 $19,446.00 Open

It is impossible to think that anyone else but the British would have specifically coded their software to show "noon" for 12:00 GMT.

Probably there's also "midnight", try it out Cheesy

They're British but they have a Slovenian banking partner. You can also tell by their wiring information if it's not somewhere on their website

creekbore

full member

Activity: 210

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Lazy, cynical and insolent since 1968

Quote from: rpietila on February 14, 2014, 08:19:21 AM

I think it is going as planned. We will need to spend some time in these levels so that nobody believes that it will go to 800 again in the immediate future.

Unless people believe that it is good to sell the coins for 400, they will not do it Wink

Also the buyers need to be tamed to not buy the flashcrashes. Time is an answer to these issues.

Be wary for Bitstamp price. It is much higher than the other functioning exchanges now. If Gox finds all the bitcoins and withdrawals are resumed, they will be sold in other exchanges (bitstamp being the only one with fiat withdraw option) with massive damage to bitcoin price.

But a significant proportion of coins from both Stamp and Gox are going to be moved into old storage, as people realise holding 'wealth' on exchanges is more risky than they previously thought.

This will mean fewer coins in circulation which should negate the actions of those who want to 'cash out'.

mmitech

legendary

Activity: 1148

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things you own end up owning you

Quote from: rpietila on February 14, 2014, 08:19:21 AM

I think it is going as planned. We will need to spend some time in these levels so that nobody believes that it will go to 800 again in the immediate future.

Unless people believe that it is good to sell the coins for 400, they will not do it Wink

Also the buyers need to be tamed to not buy the flashcrashes. Time is an answer to these issues.

Be wary for Bitstamp price. It is much higher than the other functioning exchanges now. If Gox finds all the bitcoins and withdrawals are resumed, they will be sold in other exchanges (bitstamp being the only one with fiat withdraw option) with massive damage to bitcoin price.

I've also noticed that open orders down to 500 are pulling out, people believing the price will dip even further ?

TERA

hero member

Activity: 728

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I understand about gox enabling withdrawals but what about bitstamp enabling withdrawals? Apparent Bitstamp thinks this means CCMF.

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

I think it is going as planned. We will need to spend some time in these levels so that nobody believes that it will go to 800 again in the immediate future.

Unless people believe that it is good to sell the coins for 400, they will not do it Wink

Also the buyers need to be tamed to not buy the flashcrashes. Time is an answer to these issues.

Be wary for Bitstamp price. It is much higher than the other functioning exchanges now. If Gox finds all the bitcoins and withdrawals are resumed, they will be sold in other exchanges (bitstamp being the only one with fiat withdraw option) with massive damage to bitcoin price.

ADD: If anyone thought that Bitstamp is somehow Slovenian, the following excerpt from open orders shatters the belief:

Sell Feb. 14, 2014, noon 30.00000000 $648.20 $19,446.00 Open

It is impossible to think that anyone else but the British would have specifically coded their software to show "noon" for 12:00 GMT.

Probably there's also "midnight", try it out Cheesy

RAJSALLIN

hero member

Activity: 665

Merit: 500

Quote from: ErisDiscordia on February 14, 2014, 05:00:05 AM

If one goes to bitcoinwisdom and views the 3day chart one can observe how similar the pattern between February 2013 - June 2013 and October 2013 - February 2014 looks.

I have been observing this similarity for a while and the longer it goes on the more confident I feel in the probability of this continuing. This would mean that the time point corresponding to today would be the middle of June. The two lines on the chart (anyone care to enlighten my TA ignorant self what they are called and how they are calculated?) have just crossed and are diverging and a firm downtrend is established. If the pattern continues we can expect some more downward movement with a final capitulation around the price point of 400$ in about a month from now.

Needless to point out this is a pretty exact playing out of rpietilas predictions. Much impressed!

I am calling the bottom in 23 days from now! Because 23!

EDIT: I see I am not the only who had pretty much the same idea --> http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1xuz9h/daily_discussion_friday_february_14_2014_early/cfevo8z

There isn't any thing that says it has to play out exactly the same way. I'd actually say it usually never does. I think the bottom is coming much sooner, in fact my guess before the weekend is over. Another interesting point is Gox has seen a low of $302. If Gox does in fact recover from it's mess (not ready to give any kind of odds on that) the current low on Gox will correspond to a newer low and will be sufficient going forward imo.

Edit: the flash low on btc-e not included.

merkin51

member

Activity: 95

Merit: 10

I have to admit, having been an ignorant and uneducated bull since I joined this forum, I'm glad I started paying attention to both Rista but also MatTheCat (even if he was a bit annoying with his threads). I cashed out around $790 and so glad I did, it's pretty much playing out exactly as Rista said. I can't wait to buy back in, hopefully sub-$500, but I really hope that we start getting some good positive news about Bitcoin over the next few weeks.

ErisDiscordia

legendary

Activity: 1133

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Imposition of ORder = Escalation of Chaos

If one goes to bitcoinwisdom and views the 3day chart one can observe how similar the pattern between February 2013 - June 2013 and October 2013 - February 2014 looks.

I have been observing this similarity for a while and the longer it goes on the more confident I feel in the probability of this continuing. This would mean that the time point corresponding to today would be the middle of June. The two lines on the chart (anyone care to enlighten my TA ignorant self what they are called and how they are calculated?) have just crossed and are diverging and a firm downtrend is established. If the pattern continues we can expect some more downward movement with a final capitulation around the price point of 400$ in about a month from now.

Needless to point out this is a pretty exact playing out of rpietilas predictions. Much impressed!

I am calling the bottom in 23 days from now! Because 23!

EDIT: I see I am not the only who had pretty much the same idea --> http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1xuz9h/daily_discussion_friday_february_14_2014_early/cfevo8z

seleme

legendary

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Duelbits.com

Quote from: ?? on ??

Wow guys, just wow. I guess you guys believe that both a) bitcoin has no value unless it is a speculative vehicle, and b) it will get usurped by a supposedly better "Corpcoin".

Please do us all a favor, sell your BTC and go buy some Ripples, or Dodgecoins, or Maxcoins, whatever.

The smell of troll is suddenly high in this thread. I'm out.

More of the posts you answered to closer we are to new rally

darklight

member

Activity: 88

Merit: 10

Quote from: ?? on ??

The problem with the trendline is that if you follow it indefinitely, then the conclusion is that eventually BTC will have infinite value. Which is obviously not true.

It also changes over time. Its easy to take historical data and draw a line on it, but that doesn't necessarily predict what the line will look like in future.

If growth was to carry on at the rate in the trendline, in under 10 years BTC would be worth more than everything else in the world put together. Its not very realistic

That's because it's not really exponential, it only looks exponential. The real shape is probably a bell, so after an unknown future ATH, bitcoin will enter
a bear market from which it will never recover. It will simply be replaced by something better. I hope it's not that buggy litecoin clone with a cute mascot.

Yeah totally agree. Its frustrating that many people seem to think the price can increase 10x per year forever, haven't done any basic maths to work out what that would mean, and then point at the past data as proof of their theory.

If anything the bell curve is already leveling out. The growth from Oct 2010 to mid 2011 was far steeper than anything after it

Tzupy

legendary

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That's the problem: if all speculators leave, then bitcoin would drop to it's real value, which is currently under 100$ IMO.
Speculators leaving is going to happen on a small scale in the coming months, like in the previous bear markets.

TheGhost

newbie

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Quote from: Tzupy on February 13, 2014, 05:35:18 PM

So far, bitcoin has had little competition from other crypto-currencies. This may change in the future, considering that
now it's worth a lot of money to have a successful crypto. Apple may launch one, Google may launch one, both could have cute mascots.
Bitcoin is just the first and a good one, but not perfect. And against the marketing power of Apple or Google, bitcoin would eventually lose.

Agreed.

Take intel for example. They created a FREE open rendering system called Embree. Why for free? Well because they are in the business of selling CPU's, and the more people that use rendering software, the more CPU's they sell (especially if it takes advantage of all of intels hardware optimizations).

AMD and NVIDIA have certainly not ignored the sales spike AMD has had due to mining. It would be beneficial for them to start funding development and promoting into an alt coin, even if they don't own it, because it means more sales for their hardware. And you can certainly bet they will get a bigger team behind it than exists for bitcoin, because they have the money to do so (well... AMD is questionable).

Torque

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Quote from: Tzupy on February 13, 2014, 05:35:18 PM

So far, bitcoin has had little competition from other crypto-currencies. This may change in the future, considering that
now it's worth a lot of money to have a successful crypto. Apple may launch one, Google may launch one, both could have cute mascots.
Bitcoin is just the first and a good one, but not perfect. And against the marketing power of Apple or Google, bitcoin would eventually lose.

Didn't answer my question, but ok. Maybe your answer should have been "because if bitcoin no longer appreciates in value, it would in that case no longer be a speculative vehicle, so all the speculators would sell their bitcoins and leave (to another alt coin)." But by the time bitcoin becomes THAT stable with very little gains (or loses), all the speculators would have already left.

Tzupy

legendary

Activity: 2156

Merit: 1094

So far, bitcoin has had little competition from other crypto-currencies. This may change in the future, considering that
now it's worth a lot of money to have a successful crypto. Apple may launch one, Google may launch one, both could have cute mascots.
Bitcoin is just the first and a good one, but not perfect. And against the marketing power of Apple or Google, bitcoin would eventually lose.

Torque

legendary

Activity: 3696

Merit: 5269

Quote from: ?? on ??

The problem with the trendline is that if you follow it indefinitely, then the conclusion is that eventually BTC will have infinite value. Which is obviously not true.

It also changes over time. Its easy to take historical data and draw a line on it, but that doesn't necessarily predict what the line will look like in future.

If growth was to carry on at the rate in the trendline, in under 10 years BTC would be worth more than everything else in the world put together. Its not very realistic

That's because it's not really exponential, it only looks exponential. The real shape is probably a bell, so after an unknown future ATH, bitcoin will enter
a bear market from which it will never recover. It will simply be replaced by something better. I hope it's not that buggy litecoin clone with a cute mascot.

If at that point bitcoin is serving both as a valid store of wealth and and as a stable currency, why would it be replaced?

Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 327. (Read 907212 times)