Crazy this war has been going for almost 3 years already. I didn't think Russia would keep it up for so long, as they apparently can't achieve any kind of a victory. Or at least enough of one for Putin to hang his hat on. The upside is nobody cares any more (unless you are Russian or Ukrainian). Certainly the markets don't care. This is a good thing.
I care because this event is having a massive impact on the shape of global power, and thus, the world, going forward.
In most people's pea-brains, Putin want's a giant bag of Nazi to try to manage. That is stupid beyond belief, especially since he never expressed such a desire, and the Russian activities have not suggested it in the slightest. Yet.
What Russia is obtaining is:
- Safety for the majority Russian-speaking populations of Ukraine which the Zio-nazis who took power in the 2014 color revolution made no bones about wishing to exterminate. Unsurprisingly these people _voted_ heavily to join the Russian Federation.
- A big chunk of some of the most resource-rich lands of 'recent' Ukraine back under Russian control.
- A very degraded Ukrainian military which poses very diminished security concerns for Russia. Plus carte-blanche to destroy anything new which shows up from the West.
- Notable 'de-nazification' of the Ukrainian population (which is also about half the size that it was 3 years ago in full numbers.)
- Rapid improvement of it's already formidable selection of weapons and techniques and an unmatched R&D environment in which to work. The demonstration of superiority over pretty much everything NATO can supply to Ukraine is a huge selling point so all nations who are serious about defense (and offense) will be lining up around the block to stock up.
- Massive increases in industrial manufacturing potential due to the war effort which can be re-tooled when things are over.
- A terminal blow to the myth of Western military dominance which in turn is collapsing the USD. Various factors are accelerating development of BRICS as a necessary replacement.
- An expanding and tightening group of allies world-wide.
Time only improves the situation on almost all of these fronts for Russian. The longer Russia can slow-walk things, the more every one of the above list will improve for them. And the closer the 'Western Democracies' will be to total collapse as they lose material, morality, and flounder about in disorganized morass of fair-weather friends ready to stab one another in the back.
As best I can tell, all of these fortunes more or less fell into Putin's lap as opposed to being some sort of a brilliant plan. Nobody could have predicted how jaw-droppingly stupid his adversaries could have been. For this reason and other's, I continue to wonder if he really does have some 'deep assets' planted in the Western decision making centers (esp., in 'neocon' circles who have set the table for where we are now.)
All the above said, Russia cannot hold out forever as they have people dying as well, and need to cater to domestic pressures. At some point time will not be on Russia's side. If Putin is still around when this inflection point is reached I hope for the Russian's sake that he is level-headed enough to recognize it. I personally can think of few people I would believe more likely to be able to do so based on what I can see of his actions and rhetoric.