il NUPL e' questo:
One of the most exciting features of the blockchain, as we currently know it (something could change in the future, via Taproot), is the possibility of knowing when a particular coin was moved, or more precisely, when a specific UTXO was created.
Associating this knowledge with the prevalent market price, we can understand how much an on-chain trade performs.
Glassnode, for example, has a series of measures of that.
One of the most interesting is the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss
One intuitive way of thinking of it is the second way they exposed it: subtracting the realised market capitalisation from the realised market.
This is the average P&L of every UTXO.
A positive (negative) value means the average UTXO is in profit (loss) of the corresponding amount.
If NUPL is positive 20%, the average UTXO is now in-the-money, in profit, of the 20%.
Associating this knowledge with the prevalent market price, we can understand how much an on-chain trade performs.
Glassnode, for example, has a series of measures of that.
One of the most interesting is the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss
Quote
Net Unrealized Profit/Loss is the difference between Relative Unrealized Profit and Relative Unrealized Loss. For more information see this article. This metric can also be calculated by subtracting realised cap from the market cap and dividing the result by the market cap as described in this article.
One intuitive way of thinking of it is the second way they exposed it: subtracting the realised market capitalisation from the realised market.
This is the average P&L of every UTXO.
A positive (negative) value means the average UTXO is in profit (loss) of the corresponding amount.
If NUPL is positive 20%, the average UTXO is now in-the-money, in profit, of the 20%.
il NUMPL e' una proposta di filippone: siccome il NUPL si basa su una media aritmetica, calcoliamo un indice analogo basato pro' sulla mediana.
Da quello che so attualmente l'ho implementato solo io, non so se filippone ha avuto altri implementatori.
Pubblico il grafico NUPL/NUMPL Aggiornato.
Nonostante io creda poco in queste cose, sembra sempre di piu' che abbia un discreto potere predittivo:
Finche le due linee (NUPL/NUMPL) sono piu' o meno sovrapposte, non importa se vanno su o giu' ma lo fanno assieme,
siamo in fase di mercato in espansione.
Quando la NUPL passa decisamente sotto la NUMPL, sembra predire (con buon anticipo) la fine dell'espansione e l'inizio del crypto winter.
quando si risovrappongono, riparte un bull market.
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